The appreciation of the renminbi accelerates the government’s “cooling down”

Abstract According to the latest data from China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on June 4, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar reached a new high since the exchange rate reform in 2005, at 6.1735, up 71 basis points from the previous trading day, compared with the first one at the beginning of the year. On the trading day, the RMB has appreciated by 1 this year...
According to the latest data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on June 4, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar reached a new high since the exchange rate reform in 2005, at 6.1735, up 71 basis points from the previous trading day, compared to the first transaction at the beginning of the year. On the day, the yuan has appreciated by 1,162 basis points this year.

The rapid appreciation of the renminbi has greatly reduced the profits of domestic foreign trade enterprises that are particularly sensitive to foreign exchange, and many enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy. In the face of the severe foreign trade situation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued new regulations for supporting foreign trade upgrading and transformation, promoting stable foreign trade growth, and preventing cross-border capital flow risks.

The appreciation of the renminbi is difficult for companies to survive

Since the RMB exchange rate reform, the recent RMB mid-price has entered the period of the fastest appreciation in two years. The data shows that the two-month appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 1.6% in the two months from April 1 to May 31, setting a new record of appreciation. "This is not a good thing for our company." Li Gang, manager of Changhe Industry and Trade Co., told the China Trade News that “the current situation is very similar to the previous months. The pressure on labor-intensive export enterprises is very high. If the renminbi continues to appreciate, these enterprises will sooner or later. close the door."

“If the renminbi continues to appreciate, the traditional industries such as shoes, clothing, hardware and furniture in China should be retired.” Li Youhuan, director of the Guangdong Provincial Social Science Comprehensive Development Research Center and professor of the School of Economics and Management of Beijing Jiaotong University, lamented.

Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, also said at the previous regular press conference that the appreciation of the renminbi has had a great impact on China's foreign trade enterprises. The confidence of enterprises in long-term operations is generally insufficient. Among them, the phenomenon of “doing not dare to pick up” is even more To stand out. According to the sample survey data of domestic foreign trade companies by the Ministry of Commerce, due to the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, 77.5% of foreign trade enterprises experienced a significant decline in profits during the period from January to April, and 6.6% of foreign trade companies indicated that they would affect their normal performance.

Regarding the recent acceleration of the appreciation of the renminbi, Li Youhuan believes that it is the result of various forces and policies at home and abroad. He pointed out that the push for the internationalization of the renminbi has always supported the appreciation of the renminbi, but to become an influential international settlement currency, the renminbi has a long way to go. At present, the appreciation of the renminbi has clearly deviated from the macro level.

Introduced policy to cool down

In the face of the current "tension" situation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has introduced a number of new regulations to resolve the difficulties brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi to foreign trade enterprises, including the further improvement of foreign exchange management of the current account in the special customs supervision area. The original intention of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to introduce this new regulation is to improve the management of foreign exchange receipts and payments of the current account in the special customs supervision area, support the upgrading and transformation of foreign trade enterprises, and promote the steady growth of foreign trade.

In addition, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Foreign Exchange Fund Inflows", further emphasizing the management of bank foreign exchange deposit-loan ratio positions, and the new management method for bank foreign exchange positions will be implemented for the first time at the end of June. According to calculations by professionals, according to the foreign exchange deposit and loan ratio prescribed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the gap in the foreign exchange position of the Chinese banking industry is about 400 billion US dollars. Before the implementation of this new regulation, the bank will purchase a large amount of dollars in the market in mid-June, and the RMB exchange rate may temporarily fall, and its price limit will be close to the middle price.

Some insiders pointed out that if the government introduces some policies during the year to relax capital outflows, such as opening overseas investment, encouraging individual investment, and bank interest rate cuts, the momentum of RMB appreciation will be weakened; otherwise, the RMB will continue to rise.

Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, wrote that if the central bank chooses to cut interest rates, expand the trading range of the renminbi against the US dollar, increase the volatility, and refocus on a basket of currencies to adjust, the strength of the renminbi should be "the end of the strong."

When the reporter told Li Gang, he said with indignation: "At last year, experts and scholars said that 'the RMB exchange rate will float in both directions and will not show a unilateral upward trend'. This is to stand up and talk without hurting, those experts They are not doing foreign trade themselves. Of course, they will not understand the difficulties of foreign trade enterprises. Now, the difficulties of rising prices of raw materials and rising labor costs encountered by foreign trade enterprises are not a problem. As long as the exchange rate falls, these problems will be solved."

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