The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' economic blue book predicts that GDP growth will slow down to 8.9% next year . The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2012 economic blue book "2012 China Economic Situation Analysis and Forecast" (hereinafter referred to as the Blue Book). The Blue Book said that China's economic growth rate will slow down this year. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will reach 9.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous year. If the international economic and political environment no longer deteriorates significantly, there will be no serious natural disasters and other major problems in China. The GDP growth rate in 2012 is expected to reach 8.9%. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believe that the economic growth rate will gradually stabilize in a moderate decline, preferably between 8% and 9%, creating a good macro environment for deepening reform, controlling inflation, adjusting structure, and transforming economic development. The economic growth rate is too fast. It is difficult to make substantial progress in structural adjustment and transformation of economic development mode. It will also make some deep-seated contradictions more acute, which is not conducive to deepening reform and affecting the long-term stable development of the economy. Experts stressed that next year, we must stabilize the pace of economic growth and continue to curb inflation. At the same time, we must increase the intensity of economic restructuring, deepen economic restructuring, improve people's livelihood, and maintain social stability. Next year's GDP and CPI expectations both fall back to the blue book, pointing out that due to the weakening of the world economic recovery, the prudent monetary policy and the gradual fading out of consumption stimulus policies, the annual GDP growth rate in 2011 is expected to be 9.2%, compared with the growth rate. The year fell by 1.2 percentage points. GDP growth is expected to reach 8.9% in 2012, maintaining a reasonable growth range. The Blue Book also predicts that CPI will continue to operate at a high level in 2011, and will rise by 5.5% for the whole year. Prices may fall back next year, and CPI is expected to rise by 4.6%. In 2012, prices have risen too fast and still face many challenges. The Blue Book believes that the impact of global excesses caused by quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States continues to play a role; the lack of a solid agricultural foundation will cause long-term contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural and livestock products in China, which will inevitably lead to price increases; labor costs The rise will also be an important factor driving price increases. The pressure of imported inflation is still very high, and the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil, iron ore, grain and oilseeds are still fluctuating at high levels. The troika slows down Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that from the perspective of the "troika", in terms of investment, with the development of affordable housing in various places, the whole society fixed in 2011. The nominal growth rate of asset investment will remain at a relatively high level, with a nominal growth of around 24.5% and an actual growth rate of 16.7%. Investment will show a slight decline in 2012, with nominal and real growth rates expected to be 22.8% and 15.4%, respectively. In terms of consumption, affected by factors such as the exit of stimulating policies, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in 2011 slowed down, with a nominal growth of 16.7%. In 2012, consumption will maintain a steady growth trend, and the retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 20 trillion yuan, with nominal and real growth rates of 15.7% and 11.3%, respectively. In terms of import and export, due to the weak international economic recovery and the continuous spread of the European debt crisis, the growth rate outside this year has dropped significantly. It is estimated that the import and export will increase by 24.7% and 20.4% respectively. The annual foreign trade surplus is about 160 billion US dollars, which is the third consecutive year. The trade surplus is reduced by the year. The data shows that the contribution rate of China's exports to economic growth in the first half of 2011 was minus 0.1 percentage points. The Blue Book pointed out that the contribution rate of exports to economic growth is also likely to show negative growth. The policy orientation is both steady growth and inflation. The Blue Book states that the Chinese economy will operate in a moderate growth cycle of the new cycle. “Steady prices†and “stable growth†complement each other, the level of per capita income, the promotion of urbanization, and the industrial structure. Adjustment and upgrading is an important source of economic growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. "In 2012, on the basis of a moderate decline in economic growth, we must stabilize the pace of economic growth and continue to curb inflation. At the same time, we must increase the intensity of economic restructuring, deepen economic restructuring, further improve people's livelihood, and maintain society. Stable." Chen Jiagui, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, said. Chen Jiagui pointed out that macroeconomic policies in 2012 do not require major adjustments, and should still adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. "In the short term, the pattern of positive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy will not change." Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out. Li Xuesong also believes that continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy to increase structural tax cuts and continue to implement a prudent monetary policy to promote a neutral return of monetary credit and liquidity will be the policy orientation for next year.
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