Abstract China's foreign trade is facing downward pressure. The deep-seated reason is that trade strategy and model innovation are not well matched with changes in international demand structure; foreign trade development concepts and management methods have lagged behind the real needs of trade powers. In the new era, China's foreign trade needs a global closed-loop thinking...
China's foreign trade is facing downward pressure. The deep-seated reason is that trade strategy and model innovation are not well matched with changes in international demand structure; foreign trade development concepts and management methods have lagged behind the real needs of trade powers. In the new era, China's foreign trade needs to adopt a closed-loop thinking in an overall way, strengthen its ability to control and adapt to international environmental changes, integrate the concept of Eastern cooperation, build an international strategic system with Chinese characteristics and respect the characteristics of the country, and enhance the development of foreign trade. Vivid and sustainable development capabilities. To this end, we must first build and improve the market environment and policy system based on the principles of market leading, innovation-driven, win-win cooperation and fair competition, expand the import and market opening, promote cooperation, enhance the competitiveness of goods export and provide services. In terms of trade export competitiveness, etc., it puts forward key measures for the foreign trade strategic system with Chinese characteristics, and strives to achieve a high level in market structure, enterprise vitality, trade mode, product technology, product quality, international brand, comprehensive service, etc. A dynamic new pattern of foreign trade development. 2015 is called a very unusual year in the history of China's foreign trade. Although it has increased its share of the international market from 12.4% in 2014 to 13.4%, it still ranks as the first trading power, but the double import and export shows a chill, China's foreign trade. Or will enter the down channel. The reason is that public opinion generally believes that the demand in the international market is insufficient, the cost of China's factors is rising, the comparative advantage is weakened, and the new competitive advantage has not yet formed. In fact, these are only appearances. The deeper reason is that China's trade strategy and model innovation have not matched the changes in international demand structure; the development concept and management style of foreign trade have lagged behind the real needs of large trading countries. To maintain the steady growth of China's foreign trade, it is necessary to build a new foreign trade strategic system to enhance the vivid energy and sustainable development capabilities of foreign trade development.
The three major pain points that affect the growth of foreign trade have caused the double-down and downward pressure on foreign trade to come from external international market factors. The global economy is still in a state of deep structural adjustment, and the international trade situation is sluggish. On the other hand, it is derived from China’s foreign trade. The effect of self-structural adjustment has not yet been realized, and it has not been able to form a new growth point that leads the development trend. The specific analysis can be attributed to three major pain points:
First, the direction of transformation and upgrading is not clear. The transformation and upgrading of foreign trade has been proposed for many years, and it has also shown certain results. The proportion of general trade has increased, the proportion of private enterprises has increased, and market diversification has accelerated. However, these achievements have been dragged down by the negative growth effect of the reduction of processing trade, the reduction of imports and exports of foreign-funded enterprises and major trading partners, which has weakened the former's pulling effect on overall foreign trade. It can be seen that the transformation of foreign trade is a systematic project. It is necessary to encourage the common optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain and the supply chain, enhance the traditional advantages, and foster new advantages, rather than just promoting structural transformation. Otherwise, it is only a substitution effect, and it is difficult to form a growth effect.
Second, policy incentives lack substantial results. Although a series of guiding documents have been issued to promote foreign trade development, foster foreign trade competitive advantage and growth momentum, and implement some trade facilitation policies, these guidelines and policies have not formed specific implementation rules, and local governments are implementing these The specific measures that met the actual development of the locality were not formed during the guidance. Relevant research shows that 90% of companies do not care or have the substantive role of obtaining guidance documents. Although the relevant departments have implemented a series of measures in the areas of customs clearance facilitation, inspection and quarantine, etc., this should be a normal work and cannot be used as a substantive incentive policy. However, enterprises are generally concerned about high taxation, difficult financing, and multiple approvals. Still failing to achieve a fundamental solution, the various costs of foreign trade enterprises remain high.
Third, the confidence and dynamism of foreign trade entities have weakened. No matter whether it is a state-owned enterprise, a private enterprise or a foreign-funded enterprise, it is the main body of foreign trade. However, due to the fact that the production and trade costs are not falling, the RMB exchange rate is volatile, the profit margin of foreign trade enterprises is meager, and it is not profitable and lacks substantial policy benefits. The number of corporate closures and turns has increased by more than 15% annually. In particular, a large part of the main body of China's foreign trade is Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises and Chinese businessmen, and their contribution rate to China's foreign trade is up to 70%, but the first generation of these business owners is basically old, second generation. Most of them are reluctant to continue to do foreign trade with their predecessors, and a large part of foreign trade is transferred to Southeast Asian countries to continue processing trade. The contribution rate of these entities to foreign trade has been less than 40%, which has led to the loss of foreign trade orders. The main influencing factors of export reduction. Relevant data show that since 2013, exports of industries and orders have led to a reduction of $95 billion in exports.
In 2016, the foreign trade trend is mixed with the WTO forecast. In 2016, global trade volume increased by 3.9%. It is expected that China's foreign trade growth will be flat or slightly better in 2015, and the optimistic estimate is equal to global trade growth. However, if we do not fundamentally solve the pain points and constraints of foreign trade development, it will be difficult to get rid of the predicament of foreign trade development, and the downward trend of foreign trade will continue.
The domestic and international situation facing foreign trade is still grim. In 2016, weak growth in international market demand, falling prices of bulk commodities and raw materials, falling import demand, and rising factor costs will continue to be the main factors affecting foreign trade. The rejection effect of China's foreign trade enterprises after the signing of TPP may appear. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will affect corporate decision-making. The international and domestic competition faced by Chinese foreign trade enterprises is still fierce.
The shortcomings of foreign trade shortcomings are difficult to change in the short term. The shortcomings of China's foreign trade are highlighted in the following four aspects: First, the lack of pricing power and discourse power in export products, so that China's export products are basically at the low end of the value chain, and the price of imported products is not determined by the buyer but by the seller. Therefore, although China's trade import and export has a certain price advantage, the pricing power is completely determined by Chinese companies; the second is the lack of brand products. For a long time, China has mainly dominated by processing trade, and its own brand cultivation and building ability is weak, which makes it difficult for Chinese products to gain competitive advantage in the international market. Third, it is difficult for products to meet the individualized needs of the market. The demand for individualization has become more and more prominent. Customized trade has become a threshold for most Chinese foreign trade enterprises that lack innovation ability and independent intellectual property rights. Fourth, low production capacity of high-end manufacturing industry and weak internationalization of trade circulation have become The bottleneck of the quality and efficiency of foreign trade is difficult to fundamentally improve. Therefore, to make up for the coordinated operation of all aspects of production, circulation and consumption of foreign trade short-board, it is not only the efforts of foreign trade enterprises and foreign trade management departments.
Building a strategic system with strong trade characteristics with Chinese characteristics In February 2015, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Accelerating the New Advantages of Foreign Trade Competition", and specifically proposed the objectives, measures and policy systems for cultivating the new advantages of China's foreign trade competition. This is indeed an inevitable move for China to consolidate its status as a major trading nation and promote the process of strengthening its trade. However, whether it is to cultivate new competitive advantages or implement trade facilitation, it is a basic project to promote China’s foreign trade development and face multiple adverse internal and external environments. And fierce market competition, China's foreign trade needs a higher strategic positioning and top-level design.
In the new era, China's foreign trade needs to adopt a comprehensive closed-loop thinking, strengthen its ability to control and adapt to international environmental changes, integrate the concept of Eastern cooperation, and build a strategic system of foreign trade with Chinese characteristics with an international vision and respect for national conditions.
First, according to the principles of market leading, innovation-driven, win-win cooperation, and fair competition, we will build and improve the market environment and policy system from the legal system, expand cooperation in import and market opening, enhance the competitiveness of goods export, and compete in service trade exports. In terms of strength, etc., the key measures for the foreign trade strategic system with Chinese characteristics are proposed. The government, industry organizations and enterprises will jointly take actions to implement supporting measures and strive to be in the market structure, enterprise vitality, trade mode, product technology, product quality, international brand, and comprehensive. Services and other aspects have reached a high level, reshaping the new pattern of open and dynamic foreign trade development.
Secondly, we must put China's foreign trade under the background of international and domestic economic development, and implement measures in a focused and phased manner. We must focus on improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade growth, and promote the development of foreign trade characteristics as the main line. The combination of strong country construction and deepening reform, combined with the “One Belt and One Road†strategy, combined with innovation-driven development strategy, combined with international economic cooperation, and participation and leading international rules, comprehensively improve the quality of China’s foreign trade. International influence, discourse power and even dominance.
Third, to promote the construction of a strong trade country with "Internet + foreign trade". According to their own development conditions and development priorities, all regions need to formulate development measures according to local conditions, so that cross-border e-commerce will become a new growth point for foreign trade in the region. Inter-regional cooperation, benign competition, and synergy will be formed to jointly improve resources for cross-border e-commerce. The efficiency of configuration will form the characteristic development advantages of “Internet + foreign tradeâ€: First, we must give full play to the advantages of Internet enterprises, guide them to accelerate the close integration of manufacturing enterprises, and establish an industrial ecosystem with complementary advantages and win-win cooperation in trade and strong countries. Second, rely on “Internet. +" The industrial upgrading model enhances its position in the global supply chain and comprehensively builds a production and marketing network for trade powers. Integrate the Internet into all areas of foreign trade, integrate the foreign trade industrial chain and supply chain, and make the domestic production circulation and overseas production and trade form an integrated chain from the online to the offline, truly realize the unified market of urban and rural areas, and the international and domestic unified market. form.
Fourth, foster a new advantage of China's foreign trade in "cooperation + competition". While consolidating and enhancing the existing advantages, we should actively tap the potential of the dominant factors and foster new advantages in cooperation and competition with characteristics, innovation and vitality. The elements of the new competitive advantage include not only industrial cooperation, market cooperation, channel cooperation, but also the basic elements of competitive advantages such as quality, technology, brand and service. Through effective allocation and mobilization of superior factors, China's foreign trade will be promoted in the global value chain, commodity chain, industrial chain and supply chain, and the core power of the trade power to the trade power will be gathered.
(The author is the deputy director of the e-commerce research department of the Ministry of Commerce)
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