In May, the monthly output of cement reached a record high, breaking through 1.7 trillion tons, up 18% year-on-year; flat glass output was 53.9 million weight boxes, also increasing by 18% year-on-year. Demand is in a state of rapid growth since the second half of last year. We believe that with the gradual increase of the base number in the second half of the year, the demand growth rate of the building materials industry will gradually slow down, and the demand growth rate of the building materials industry will be stable in the next two years.
The price has a downward trend: although demand has remained strong, the effect of industry frenzied investment has gradually emerged this year. In early June, the price of cement in the southwest and northwest regions with higher supply pressures decreased year-on-year, and only South China and East China with less cement pressure Regional prices rose year-on-year, and the regions were basically flat. Due to the large increase in the cost of raw materials such as coal, the profit rate of the cement industry is expected to decline. In May, almost all city prices of float glass rose year-on-year. From the ring, the rebound also occurred in May, but did not change the downward trend of float glass prices this year. Due to the sharp increase in soda ash, especially heavy oil, the profit margin of the glass industry is expected to decline.
The building materials market is "cool" float glass market is worrying
Industry investment still maintained rapid growth: in May, the country completed cement investment of 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. In the first five months, the accumulated cement investment was 63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Investment in the northwest and north China regions has doubled year-on-year, and it is expected that the supply pressure in these two regions will be relatively large next year. In May, two float glass production lines were put into operation. From the second half of last year to May this year, a total of 20 new float glass production lines were put into operation, adding a daily melting capacity of 118,800 tons. At the same time, production is currently discontinued and cold repaired. The daily melting capacity of the production line is 15,000 tons, and the supply pressure is expected to be large in the future. We still insist that the elimination of backward production capacity is difficult to rely on administrative means but on the market to survive the fittest.
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