The new energy industry represented by the photovoltaic industry is partially overheated, which is gaining recognition from more and more industries and external investors. However, at a new energy industry conference held in Wuxi on the 19th, industry people made a careful distinction between overheating in the new energy industry, and believed that there is still a lot of room for development in related sub-sectors. Based on the same judgment, in the view of industrial investors, although the era of short-term profit of new energy has ended, new energy companies with superior technology and getting rid of low-level competition still attract the attention of industrial capital.
Overheating in the imbalance of photovoltaic industry chain
On August 26th, the State Council executive meeting researched and implemented the suppression of overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries, including polysilicon projects related to photovoltaic power generation, and the low-level redundant construction is no longer approved as a new energy project. Although the coverage of the new energy industry is much broader than that of a single polysilicon project, this conclusion of the State Council executive meeting has been widely recognized as the country's conclusion that the entire new energy industry is overcapacity. "The ensuing is the concern of investors, and the difficulty of bank loans has also increased." Some industry insiders told China Securities Journal.
However, in the industry and the investment community, it seems that there is a surplus in the photovoltaic industry, and it should be examined from a more detailed perspective. Zhuo Fumin, managing partner of Jiyuan Capital, told the China Securities Journal that the conclusion of the State Council in August was a warning to the market and does not mean that the country believes that the new energy industry has fully experienced overcapacity.
“At present, only a part of the polysilicon project capacity reported in the country is actually put into production, and less than the actual production project has reached the capacity target.†He said, “The conclusion of the State Council executive meeting can make some potential and not yet launched polysilicon projects. Operators recognize potential risks. This warning is therefore positive for the industry."
Previously, CIC Securities statistics show that as of the first half of this year, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Yunnan are constructing, expanding and preparing polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 170,000 tons. More than 100 billion yuan. If all of these capacities are realized, it is equivalent to more than twice the annual global demand for polysilicon. As a result, the State Council has specifically proposed measures to establish and improve access standards for emerging industries such as polysilicon.
In the eyes of the industry, the so-called overheating of the photovoltaic industry is only an excessive investment in some of the production links, and does not represent the overall overheating of the industry. Ma Xuelu, executive director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that whether the photovoltaic industry is surplus should not only look at the production capacity of polycrystalline PV modules. He believes that the photovoltaic industry includes a wide range of links, such as technology research and development, application research and development, technical standards, testing, talent training, supporting component production, and photovoltaic resource evaluation and service system. The development of all aspects of the photovoltaic industry is still very uneven.
“The solar photovoltaic power plant consists of two parts, the first part is the component and the second part is the system outside the component.†He said, “If the development level of the component is set to 100, the current market maturity of the system other than the component is only 2, poor. 50 times."
New energy investment opportunities still exist
“Now the concept of new energy is used to 'fudge' ventures, and the era of riches overnight has passed. Entrepreneurs in the new energy industry are the time to practice their ideals in a down-to-earth manner.†Investors with industrial capital are Say.
For industrial investors, the partial overheating of new energy industries, including photovoltaic power generation and wind power, cannot be the reason for the entry of industrial funds. Only when the overall valuation of the industry is already at a high level, investors are more concerned about the technological leadership and originality of the company. After all, no investors hope that the companies they invest in will soon fall into the same fierce competition as polysilicon projects.
Shao Jun, the founding partner of DT Capital, believes that the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry exists only in the low-end sector; in thin-film batteries, and solar-assisted industries, such as grid-connected technology and energy storage technology, it still has a good return potential. Because these technologies are less likely to be surpassed by next-generation technologies. Zhang Suyang, managing partner of IDGVC, also has a strong investment interest in energy storage technology and high-voltage transmission technology.
However, as an institutional investor in the secondary market, Wang Yawei of Huaxia Fund said that the high valuation of the industry caused by the previous wealth effect of the new energy industry also brought investment risks. The high valuation of the industry as a whole and the fierce competition within the industry have made fewer and more investable companies. (Reporter Jin Shixing Wuxi reports)
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