Last month, Japanese steel companies and Australian mines reached a three-quarter iron ore price agreement, about $147 per ton, up about 23% from the previous quarter. However, domestic steel companies have not accepted this price. According to Baosteel's high-level executives, the price of iron ore in the third quarter, which is currently negotiated with the three major mining companies, has not yet been finalized. It is expected that it will be until the end of July and early August.
Earlier this year, the iron ore price increase was expected to boost the domestic steel market price. Will the iron ore price increase in the third quarter push the price of steel again? What is the running trend of China's steel market in the second half of the year? With these questions, our reporter interviewed Ma Zhongpu, a senior steel industry expert and chief analyst of China United Business Network.
The rise in mining prices is expected to boost steel prices at the beginning of the year
Ma Zhongpu said that the sharp rise in iron ore prices is expected to lead to a strong price increase in the Chinese steel market at the beginning of this year. At that time, it seems that the world is immersed in the optimistic forecast of faster economic recovery, and the rapid rise in commodity prices has led to an increase in inflationary pressures. But in May and June, the Greek debt crisis triggered a weak EU economy and a fall in commodity prices worldwide. The bursting of this asset bubble not only slowed the recovery of the world economy, but also affected the decline of the steel market. The changes in the world economic situation have once again brought about a great difficulty in the steel market due to the rising price of iron ore and rising prices.
In fact, from the beginning of this year to mid-April, the price of China's steel market can rise all the way under high inventory. The main reason is that the price of imported iron ore is expected to rise by 100%, resulting in an increase in the cost of steel mills. By mid-April, the domestic hot coil price rose by more than 800 yuan per ton, and the construction steel price rose by more than 700 yuan per ton.
Ma Zhongpu said that from the situation at the beginning of the year, the Australian agreed mine price was 60.14 US dollars / ton at the end of last year, plus Shanghai freight rate of 9.614 US dollars / ton, the actual landed price was 69.754 US dollars / ton; Brazil agreement mine offshore price is 55.5 US dollars / ton , plus shipping costs of 27.02 US dollars / ton, the actual landed price is 82.52 US dollars / ton. At that time, the price of imported iron ore in the spot market was close to $190/ton. Even with tariffs and port charges, the negotiated mine price is far below the spot price. In this case, it is very difficult to prevent the price of the agreement mine from rising sharply through negotiation.
Steel companies have been unable to withstand rising mineral prices
Judging from the price of the iron ore agreement announced in the second quarter of the Australian mine, 63.5% of the fine ore is $123/ton, plus various fees equivalent to the landed price of RMB1,147/ton. This is almost the same as the spot price of domestic ports of 1170 yuan/ton in mid-May. Not only that, but the three major mines once again released the wind, indicating that the price of the ore agreement in the third quarter will increase by 23%.
"Maybe people hope that the price of steel in the third quarter will rise due to the price increase of iron ore, but the question is whether steel companies are still able to continue to raise prices for iron ore? The international economy and steel market have already fallen into a weak situation. Can support iron ore prices continue to rise?" Ma Zhongpu raised such doubts.
At the beginning of this year, after seeing the trend of rising prices of iron ore in the steel market, consumers mostly increased the purchase of steel in advance, which caused the steel price to rise and the market steel sales to have a short-term boom. The output of domestic steel mills was released to an average daily level of 1.84 million tons.
By mid-April, the price of hot coil has exceeded 4,580 yuan / ton, and the price of large rebar has exceeded 4,330 yuan / ton. Faced with the continued rise in steel prices, market expectations for consumers, traders and steel mills have changed significantly. Consumers began to drastically reduce purchases, and traders had to cut steel prices to stimulate market shipments, but with little success. By mid-June, the steel market price has been continuously fluctuating and falling. The price of 5.5mm hot coil in Shanghai and Tianjin has dropped to 4,150 yuan / ton, and the price of large rebar in Shanghai market has dropped to 3,820 yuan / ton. To 4,000 yuan / ton.
In the trend of steel prices falling back in late April, many steel mills underestimated the risk of falling steel prices, and continued to increase the ex-factory price of steel in May, causing large price inversion in the steel market. In the market price retreat, traders do not have a reasonable price support point in the market. Under the influence of bad shipments and bad news of asset bubbles, they can only reduce steel prices. Ma Zhongpu believes that this market price formation mechanism is very unfavorable for the price of the steel market in the decline as soon as possible.
He said that when the steel market price falls deeply, steel companies and traders need to think about establishing a price stabilization mechanism to prevent further decline in market prices. Especially after entering June, the steel mill contract is insufficient, the in-house inventory is increased, and the steel companies have lowered the ex-factory price of steel to minimize the negative impact of price inversion on market price stability. However, after all, the negative factors continue, after this round of steel prices fluctuated, many steel companies have once again fallen into losses, and have been unable to bear the cost pressure of rising iron ore prices. As of the end of June, the price of Shanghai 5.5mm hot coil has dropped to 4,000 yuan / ton, the price of 16 ~ 25mm secondary rebar has dropped to 3780 yuan / ton, a total decline of 11% ~ 13%.
At the same time, in order to reduce the risk of steel procurement in the third quarter, domestic enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry and Haier Group can still purchase steel in advance for two to three months. The increase in downstream consumer inventories not only reduces the cost risk of rising steel market prices, but also inhibits the continued rise in steel prices.
The Chinese steel market is not optimistic in the second half of the year
At present, the global steel market is caught in the increase in inventories and the price is weak. Even the steel prices have fallen sharply, and the billets and hot coils have fallen sharply.
Ma Zhongpu said that without the support of demand, even if the price of iron ore rises, the price of steel is difficult to climb, and steel companies can only fall into more difficult business difficulties. Obviously, the three major miners are willing to go their own way, and whether the efforts to push up the price of iron ore in the third quarter is still a mystery.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May this year, China imported 51.9 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 6% from April, which has been a decline for two consecutive months. Moreover, the recent decline in iron ore imports in China has become an important reason for the sharp decline in the Baltic BDI index. At present, China's port iron ore stocks have risen from 67 million tons at the beginning of the year to 76.55 million tons, even exceeding the inventory levels in 2008. "The three major miners can shake the iron ore agreement price, but they can't shake the world's steel demand." Ma Zhongpu said.
He said that in the second half of the year, whether the world economy can emerge from the weakness of the European economy and the shadow of this round of asset bubbles will truly embark on the road of recovery and promote the rise of the international steel market, which will affect the trend of China's steel market. variable. “Obviously, the operation of the Chinese steel market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic.â€
He believes that China's power, telecommunications, highway and other industries have already passed the peak or rapid growth period of investment. The growth rate of investment in the past two years has dropped significantly, and the growth of steel demand will inevitably fall.
This year is a crucial year for transforming the way the economy develops. China's crude steel consumption has shown a trend of high consumption and low growth at least since the second half of the year. Although steel prices have been under downward pressure for more than two months, domestic crude steel production is still hitting new highs in May. In May, China's crude steel output hit a new monthly record of 56.14 million tons, and the average daily output of crude steel was 1.811 million tons. From January to May, China's crude steel output reached 269.90 million tons, an increase of 23.8%. If calculated according to the crude steel production level in May, the annual crude steel output will reach 656 million tons. “Although the crude steel output growth in the first five months was formed during the low steel consumption in the same period last year, it does not reflect the real increase in crude steel output and consumption growth this year, but in the face of high consumption and low growth, if the steel mill does not Production cuts, market and resource pressures will be further increased." Ma Zhongpu finally said.
Earlier this year, the iron ore price increase was expected to boost the domestic steel market price. Will the iron ore price increase in the third quarter push the price of steel again? What is the running trend of China's steel market in the second half of the year? With these questions, our reporter interviewed Ma Zhongpu, a senior steel industry expert and chief analyst of China United Business Network.
The rise in mining prices is expected to boost steel prices at the beginning of the year
Ma Zhongpu said that the sharp rise in iron ore prices is expected to lead to a strong price increase in the Chinese steel market at the beginning of this year. At that time, it seems that the world is immersed in the optimistic forecast of faster economic recovery, and the rapid rise in commodity prices has led to an increase in inflationary pressures. But in May and June, the Greek debt crisis triggered a weak EU economy and a fall in commodity prices worldwide. The bursting of this asset bubble not only slowed the recovery of the world economy, but also affected the decline of the steel market. The changes in the world economic situation have once again brought about a great difficulty in the steel market due to the rising price of iron ore and rising prices.
In fact, from the beginning of this year to mid-April, the price of China's steel market can rise all the way under high inventory. The main reason is that the price of imported iron ore is expected to rise by 100%, resulting in an increase in the cost of steel mills. By mid-April, the domestic hot coil price rose by more than 800 yuan per ton, and the construction steel price rose by more than 700 yuan per ton.
Ma Zhongpu said that from the situation at the beginning of the year, the Australian agreed mine price was 60.14 US dollars / ton at the end of last year, plus Shanghai freight rate of 9.614 US dollars / ton, the actual landed price was 69.754 US dollars / ton; Brazil agreement mine offshore price is 55.5 US dollars / ton , plus shipping costs of 27.02 US dollars / ton, the actual landed price is 82.52 US dollars / ton. At that time, the price of imported iron ore in the spot market was close to $190/ton. Even with tariffs and port charges, the negotiated mine price is far below the spot price. In this case, it is very difficult to prevent the price of the agreement mine from rising sharply through negotiation.
Steel companies have been unable to withstand rising mineral prices
Judging from the price of the iron ore agreement announced in the second quarter of the Australian mine, 63.5% of the fine ore is $123/ton, plus various fees equivalent to the landed price of RMB1,147/ton. This is almost the same as the spot price of domestic ports of 1170 yuan/ton in mid-May. Not only that, but the three major mines once again released the wind, indicating that the price of the ore agreement in the third quarter will increase by 23%.
"Maybe people hope that the price of steel in the third quarter will rise due to the price increase of iron ore, but the question is whether steel companies are still able to continue to raise prices for iron ore? The international economy and steel market have already fallen into a weak situation. Can support iron ore prices continue to rise?" Ma Zhongpu raised such doubts.
At the beginning of this year, after seeing the trend of rising prices of iron ore in the steel market, consumers mostly increased the purchase of steel in advance, which caused the steel price to rise and the market steel sales to have a short-term boom. The output of domestic steel mills was released to an average daily level of 1.84 million tons.
By mid-April, the price of hot coil has exceeded 4,580 yuan / ton, and the price of large rebar has exceeded 4,330 yuan / ton. Faced with the continued rise in steel prices, market expectations for consumers, traders and steel mills have changed significantly. Consumers began to drastically reduce purchases, and traders had to cut steel prices to stimulate market shipments, but with little success. By mid-June, the steel market price has been continuously fluctuating and falling. The price of 5.5mm hot coil in Shanghai and Tianjin has dropped to 4,150 yuan / ton, and the price of large rebar in Shanghai market has dropped to 3,820 yuan / ton. To 4,000 yuan / ton.
In the trend of steel prices falling back in late April, many steel mills underestimated the risk of falling steel prices, and continued to increase the ex-factory price of steel in May, causing large price inversion in the steel market. In the market price retreat, traders do not have a reasonable price support point in the market. Under the influence of bad shipments and bad news of asset bubbles, they can only reduce steel prices. Ma Zhongpu believes that this market price formation mechanism is very unfavorable for the price of the steel market in the decline as soon as possible.
He said that when the steel market price falls deeply, steel companies and traders need to think about establishing a price stabilization mechanism to prevent further decline in market prices. Especially after entering June, the steel mill contract is insufficient, the in-house inventory is increased, and the steel companies have lowered the ex-factory price of steel to minimize the negative impact of price inversion on market price stability. However, after all, the negative factors continue, after this round of steel prices fluctuated, many steel companies have once again fallen into losses, and have been unable to bear the cost pressure of rising iron ore prices. As of the end of June, the price of Shanghai 5.5mm hot coil has dropped to 4,000 yuan / ton, the price of 16 ~ 25mm secondary rebar has dropped to 3780 yuan / ton, a total decline of 11% ~ 13%.
At the same time, in order to reduce the risk of steel procurement in the third quarter, domestic enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry and Haier Group can still purchase steel in advance for two to three months. The increase in downstream consumer inventories not only reduces the cost risk of rising steel market prices, but also inhibits the continued rise in steel prices.
The Chinese steel market is not optimistic in the second half of the year
At present, the global steel market is caught in the increase in inventories and the price is weak. Even the steel prices have fallen sharply, and the billets and hot coils have fallen sharply.
Ma Zhongpu said that without the support of demand, even if the price of iron ore rises, the price of steel is difficult to climb, and steel companies can only fall into more difficult business difficulties. Obviously, the three major miners are willing to go their own way, and whether the efforts to push up the price of iron ore in the third quarter is still a mystery.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May this year, China imported 51.9 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 6% from April, which has been a decline for two consecutive months. Moreover, the recent decline in iron ore imports in China has become an important reason for the sharp decline in the Baltic BDI index. At present, China's port iron ore stocks have risen from 67 million tons at the beginning of the year to 76.55 million tons, even exceeding the inventory levels in 2008. "The three major miners can shake the iron ore agreement price, but they can't shake the world's steel demand." Ma Zhongpu said.
He said that in the second half of the year, whether the world economy can emerge from the weakness of the European economy and the shadow of this round of asset bubbles will truly embark on the road of recovery and promote the rise of the international steel market, which will affect the trend of China's steel market. variable. “Obviously, the operation of the Chinese steel market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic.â€
He believes that China's power, telecommunications, highway and other industries have already passed the peak or rapid growth period of investment. The growth rate of investment in the past two years has dropped significantly, and the growth of steel demand will inevitably fall.
This year is a crucial year for transforming the way the economy develops. China's crude steel consumption has shown a trend of high consumption and low growth at least since the second half of the year. Although steel prices have been under downward pressure for more than two months, domestic crude steel production is still hitting new highs in May. In May, China's crude steel output hit a new monthly record of 56.14 million tons, and the average daily output of crude steel was 1.811 million tons. From January to May, China's crude steel output reached 269.90 million tons, an increase of 23.8%. If calculated according to the crude steel production level in May, the annual crude steel output will reach 656 million tons. “Although the crude steel output growth in the first five months was formed during the low steel consumption in the same period last year, it does not reflect the real increase in crude steel output and consumption growth this year, but in the face of high consumption and low growth, if the steel mill does not Production cuts, market and resource pressures will be further increased." Ma Zhongpu finally said.
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