Spandex market ready to go

In the past half-month, the spandex market has stabilized, and the overall trend remains stable. Does this mean that the spandex market is accumulating energy and is poised for the next price increase? The author believes that this is entirely possible, because the signs of recent price increases have already emerged, and some spandex specifications, such as Spandex 40D, have already begun to appear to be in a tight supply situation, which has caused some spandex companies to increase their selling prices to an increasingly high mentality. The specific reasons are as follows:

First, spandex manufacturers operating in good condition, inventory gradually decline

Since August, the installation load of spandex enterprises has gradually decreased from 90.7% at the end of last month to 76.61% at present, and the rate of decline has reached 15.5%. This is mainly due to the further strengthening of the power restriction policy in Zhejiang Province. Production cuts have increased, and the inspection and repair of installations of many companies has been strengthened. Under normal circumstances, after this month, it is the month when the downstream textile demand is relatively strong. It will be outdated to carry out the overhaul of the installations. While the equipment load of spandex manufacturers is declining, the inventory status of enterprises is also declining. According to statistics, spandex manufacturers' inventory fell from 26.5 days at the beginning of the month to the current 23.6 days, and the percentage of decline has reached 10.94%. Inventory status is a direct performance of a company's operating status. The smaller the inventory, the better the operating status. From the current spandex inventory trends, it should be said that it is a good performance, so the recent supply of spandex 40D has begun to appear It's a tight state.

Second, in the near future, the raw material PTMEG and MDI market conditions are steadily improving.

Since entering the second half of August, the overall price of PTMEG products has remained relatively stable. Although some sources have shown a slight decrease in prices, the overall situation is still relatively stable. The price gap between brands is more obvious, and some PTMEG manufacturers have Inventory is not a lot. The existence of factors such as falling prices of the BDO market has also affected the prices of downstream series products, which has caused downstream companies to purchase raw materials very carefully. In terms of pure MDI, the pure MDI market demand in August is still acceptable. Although some downstream companies are still bargaining, some spot market MDI market is still relatively stable.

From the point of view of the latest imports and exports of raw MDI, the import volume of pure MDI in July was 8539 tons, which is an increase of 1498 tons compared with 7041 tons in June, an increase of 21.3%, mainly imported in South Korea and Japan; In July, the export volume was 4,073 tons, which was an increase of 247 tons compared with 3,826 tons in June, an increase of 6.4%. The domestic pure MDI was mainly exported to Taiwan and Japan. These data show that China's imports and exports of pure MDI are increasing, and the countries importing and exporting are mainly concentrated in Asia, so the debt crisis in Europe has little impact on this. In addition, according to the current production situation, the supply of pure MDI should be in a relatively adequate range, and the market conditions should be stable.

3. The economic situation at home and abroad is optimistic, and spandex exports continue to grow

At present, the international economic situation is generally in a process of full recovery. Although the US figure in the second quarter has been corrected, the U.S. economy is still recovering, and there will not be a double bottom on the whole. Japan, after ten years of appreciation in the late 1980s, has been negative for more than a decade. Or zero growth, but in the past two years, it is probably in a better state and there are signs of recovery. From the perspective of foreign trade figures in the first half of the year, China’s foreign trade with the United States increased by 30% in the first half of the year, and foreign trade in Europe grew by 34%, and Japan’s foreign trade grew even more. All these indicate that their economic situation is relatively good. The recovery of the world economy will surely benefit the Chinese economy.

From the above chart of spandex imports and exports in recent months, we can see that in recent months, spandex exports have gradually increased, from 3108 tons in April to 3459 tons in July, just a few In the month, the growth rate reached 11.2%; while the import volume of spandex showed a downward trend, from 1,526 tons in April to 1,226 tons in July, a decrease of 19.7%. The import and export data of spandex-covered yarn was even more prominent. In June, the export of covered yarn was 67 tons. By July, it had exported 130 tons, and the growth rate had almost reached 50%. From these data, we can see that China’s export of spandex is always more than the amount of imports. It also shows that China’s spandex production capacity is gradually strengthening, and the external market is gradually improving.