Thermal power is sinking, hydropower is controversial, nuclear power is slowing down, new energy power generation is still difficult to take on, and power shortages are becoming more and more "normal". Will this be the last straw to overwhelm China's small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises?
On the Jinsha River, the determined hydropower fans won the new battlefield. According to the recent social responsibility report issued by the Three Gorges Group, four giant hydropower stations will rise here. Its planned installed capacity is nearly 43 million kilowatts, equivalent to two Three Gorges projects, with an annual power generation of about 190 billion kWh. The dispute over the pros and cons of China's hydropower is heating up, and this news has undoubtedly stimulated many people's nerves. The just-concluded drought gave them reasons for opposition: hydropower should also “depend on the skyâ€, and regardless of whether the giant hydropower station caused drought, they would not be able to play the perfect function on the design drawings once the drought occurred – 50 years Drought is precisely one of the most serious "power shortages" in the past seven years. This kind of controversy actually reflects the embarrassment of China's power supply. The rigid system has infinitely magnified the factors of power shortage. During the "two sessions" this year, the former general manager of China Datang Corporation, Ruo Ruoyu once said that if the coal-electricity price linkage mechanism is not reformed, the thermal power enterprises will continue to lose money in 2011 and have There may be a situation in which power cuts were imposed in 2004. These words did not cause much attention. In fact, for the insiders, this is not even a prophecy, but a fact that there is no suspense. The problem is far from being as simple as coal-electricity linkage, but it requires system reform of the entire power industry chain. The thermal power is heavy, the hydropower is controversial, the nuclear power is slowing down, and the new energy power generation is difficult to assume responsibility within five years. Therefore, the power shortage may become the "normal state", not only every year, but also in the off-season. For Chinese manufacturing companies that have already faced many new pressures, this is not a nightmare. “It’s very fast for companies to fall down!†The head of an industrial company in Hunan told reporters loudly that his company had affected the supply of customers because of lack of electricity. "Fortunately, there are still stocks before. If the power shortage is longer, the delivery time will be delayed for a long time, and the customers will lose a lot."
Struggling for the management of Xiangtan Iron and Steel Plant, this May is probably their most unwilling A period of memories. Due to lack of electricity, the direct loss of the month reached 190 million yuan. This steel plant is a subsidiary of Hualing Iron and Steel, the largest manufacturing company in Hunan, and a major power consumer in Xiangtan. Its electricity consumption accounts for one-third of the entire Xiangtan. “Piezo has become particularly powerful in April. From the end of April, the rolling mills have all stopped.†He Feng, Minister of Energy and Environmental Protection of Xiangtan Iron and Steel said. Rolling steel belongs to the latter half of the process, which consumes a lot of electricity, and it is a last resort. Due to the inability to roll steel, some of the intermediate products were piled up in Xianggang's inventory and could not be delivered to customers. "The whole company has successively opened a special office meeting for electricity use, and the problem of electricity use has become more and more important." He Feng smiled. "It is foreseeable that although hydropower generation is now coming up, the next few months are peak periods, and the 'power shortage' situation may be more serious." He was deeply worried. The lack of electricity caused by the 2008 ice disaster is still fresh in memory. "The damage caused by the power outage to the factory equipment has not yet fully recovered. But this time it was a natural disaster, which was an acute attack, but now I don't see the end of the 'electricity shortage'." Hunan Hydropower installed capacity accounted for the total installed capacity of electricity More than 40% of the first five months of this year, Hunan hydropower daily average power generation decreased by more than 40% than in previous years, is one of the hardest hit areas, the power gap once reached 1/3. Even the provincial capital Changsha, the electricity is extremely nervous. A large number of enterprises need to use peak power, all street lights are turned on halfway, and landscape lights are also stopped. After entering June, it was slightly relieved with several rounds of heavy precipitation. "I don't see the end" is the most worrying. For some business owners in the Pearl River Delta, they are more anxious. Mr. Zhang is a private mechanical equipment company executive, his company is located in Baoan District, Shenzhen. Today, the power outage every Wednesday has become a routine for the company. The day before the power outage, he will always receive a text message from the power supply bureau: "Respected power customers, we are sorry to inform you that the warning signal for tomorrow's electricity is orange, indicating that there is a big gap in the power supply, please issue a yellow warning signal. On the wrong day, customers on Wednesdays and Fridays must consciously stop using electricity.†These text messages are polite and resolute, and the chapters have nothing to do. Although they know that there will be no effect, he often rushes to forward text messages to enterprises. The person in charge of the association hopes that the other party can mediate with the power plant. “It’s three days a week, Monday, Wednesday and Friday. It’s very difficult to transfer the shifts.†Mr. Zhang laments that his company’s employees have started to strike, because the wages will be reduced if they don’t start work, which will bring the company’s operation. It is extremely difficult. "Now even the electricity for life has stopped, and only candles can be lit at night." The situation facing the chapter is quite common in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. According to relevant sources of the Guangdong Provincial Economic and Information Commission, the actual load demand of the province has exceeded 71 million kilowatts in January-May, which is close to the highest level last year. In the third quarter, demand for electricity will increase sharply, and the maximum load demand is expected to reach 78 million kilowatts. At present, the Economic and Information Committee is also strengthening the operation and control. For example, in accordance with the principle of balance and total amount control in the city, Dongguan City has formulated a list of “city-protected power companies†on a quarterly basis. In principle, the city's insurance companies have reduced their weekly peak-shifting losses by one day. A total of 135 enterprises were included in the list of municipal electricity tariffs, with a total installed power load of 587,800 kilowatts. Even these insurance companies do not have a high level of power consumption. Shenzhen industrial giant BYD is working hard to produce electric vehicles for the 26th Summer Universiade, which is less than two months old. Even so, it is reported that the Power Battery Division, which is responsible for key tasks, must be shut down on Thursdays. There are also a few large and medium-sized enterprises that consider pulling the line directly from the power supply bureau. Emmett is one of the home appliance companies. Cai Zhengfu, the vice chairman of the board of directors, said that the investment in the dedicated line is about 6 million yuan, so there is very little time for such power outages. However, companies that can pull private lines from the power supply bureau are rare. For most of the smaller companies, if they want to maintain production, they can only rely on diesel to generate electricity. "In the past, diesel was only a few cents a liter, and now it is seven or eight, which is more than ten times higher." A small business owner complained. "The cost is too high, we really can't bear it. If we go on like this, we can only sell the company and go to work." In Guangzhou, the Taiwan-funded enterprise association has just conducted a power survey on member companies and is reflecting upwards. Power shortages. "The lack of electricity this year is significantly ahead of schedule. Some places have to stop for three or four days a week. Many member companies are already considering moving out." President Cheng Fengyuan revealed. “Three years ago, Guangdong proposed a “double transfer†strategy, which is the dual transfer of industry and labor.†One insider speculated that this may be the effect that the Guangdong provincial government hopes to see. “After the financial crisis, due to pressures such as exchange rate, environmental protection and labor costs, many companies that have been struggling have left Guangdong. The current “electricity shortage†will undoubtedly accelerate this process.â€
“The water and fire is hard to meet†Even Dongjiang Reservoir, which is known as “the last glass of water in Hunanâ€, has a very limited amount of electricity. "At that time, the status of Dongjiang Hydropower Station was similar to that of my mobile phone." Liu Xiaoping, the head of the propaganda department of Dongjiang Hydropower Plant, shook his mobile phone, leaving only one grid of electricity. The Dongjiang Reservoir is known as the “Little Dongting†and is located above the tributary of the Xiangjiang River. The reservoir is far beyond the other power station reservoirs in the province. It bears the burden of supporting the Xiangjiang River to fight drought and replenish water downstream. The "last glass of water" is named after it. Because it is necessary to provide water supply to important cities along the Xiangjiang River, Dongjiang Reservoir generally needs to maintain sufficient water storage capacity. Hydropower stations are only responsible for regulating power generation. However, in the case of severe power shortage in Hunan this year, even the "last glass of water" had to be used. According to the data provided by Liu Xiaoping, the power generation of Dongjiang Hydropower Station was 638 million kWh in the first five months of this year, more than double the same period last year, and the water consumption was far higher than last year. However, the water supply this year has decreased a lot compared with previous years. The water level of Dongjiang Reservoir has decreased daily, and by the end of May, it was only 267.06 meters. Dongjiang Reservoir had released water and drought five times in 2003-2010. According to Liu Xiaoping, only 2003 can be compared with the present. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, the Sanxiang land that experienced the drought in spring and summer finally ushered in the long-lost heavy rain. The staff of Dongjiang Hydropower Station was relieved, but what would happen next, they are still very worried. The situation in 2003 was after the worst drought in summer, and this time the test is probably far from over. "Dongjiang Hydropower Station is not only the 'last glass of water', but it seems to play the role of 'last power." Liu Xiaoping said that large hydropower stations including Fengtan and Tunxi had already reached the dead water level. Standby standby state. "Hunan power industry needs to rely on the sky to eat." A related person of Wuling Power deeply felt this. The hydropower enterprise affiliated to China Power Investment Corporation accounts for more than 60% of the province's hydropower installed capacity. The impact of water supply on its power generation will directly affect the province's power supply. "In recent years, there will generally be no dry water in this season, but this year the drought is very serious and hydropower has become difficult." In fact, Hunan is not lacking in thermal power installations, and the power supply should not rely entirely on hydropower. It can be shown that half of the thermal power units in the province have not contributed in the near future. Luo Riping, deputy general manager of Huayin Power, has nothing to do with this. "Now the problem of electric coal is 'seven jars of ten jars'. When the price is raised, the lid is moved to other jars." Luo's so-called "tank" refers to the power plant, while the "cover" is electric coal. Due to the shortage of resources and capacity, the price of coal is rising, and the operation of thermal power companies is becoming more and more difficult. "Save the firepower." Luo Riping even called. According to its introduction, the on-grid tariff of Hunan thermal power enterprises needs to be increased by 5-7 points in order to turn losses into profits. At present, Huayin Power has three subordinate thermal power plants that are insolvent because of continued losses. Hunan is not short of coal. It produces more than 50 million tons of coal per year, but only about 30 million tons of it are shipped to other provinces, most of which are sent to Guangdong. In addition, the Liyujiang Power Plant in southern Hunan is produced locally from Hunan, but its power supply is sent directly to Guangdong through the Southern Power Grid. The call for “the province’s coal-guaranteed power-saving†is growing. “Some coal resource provinces restrict coal outflows to the province. Like Henan, the coal price adjustment fund is used to transport 200 tons of one ton of coal to other provinces, but Hunan only collects 30 yuan.†Huayin Power complained. However, if coal stays in Hunan, neighboring provinces such as Guangdong will surely have more power shortages. As long as the coal transaction does not form a unified national market system, the game between coal and electricity will not end. This is an old topic that is talked about every year. Since the money is lost, even though the electricity is tight, many thermal power companies will stop generating electricity in the name of shutdown maintenance after completing the planned power. According to statistics from the coal-fired system in Hunan Province, some units of more than 10 power plants in Hunan Province were overhauled in April, and about 9 power plants were inspected in May. The predicament of Hunan is the epitome of the current power grid. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, due to the dispute over the impact of hydropower on the environment, hydropower construction was only over 20 million kilowatts, far lower than the original planned 70 million kilowatts. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, However, many reservoirs, like Dongjiang, play the dual function of flood storage and drought prevention and power generation. If hydropower and thermal power cannot be smoothly connected, not only the "electricity shortage" will be solved, but also the contradiction between water conservancy and electricity.
Forced to "open source" once the switch can be used, the inexhaustible power has become more and more precious in recent years, and there are no signs of solution in the short term. “Electric Tigers†had to find “gold mines†in their own production processes. In the past, environmental protection departments forced enterprises to save energy, and now enterprises are actively investing more and more. Xianggang is an example. "We now use more than 300 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per month, of which about 200 million are outsourced, and more than one billion are self-generated." He Feng introduced. The Xianggang Energy and Environmental Protection Department, where he is located, was established in 2009 with the function of planning for energy-based energy use. He Feng claims that what he thinks every day is how to use energy to the extreme. In the past two years, Xiangsteel has invested heavily in equipment that uses waste heat, residual pressure, and residual energy for self-generation. “In 2008, we generated more than 400 million kWh of self-generated electricity, and in 2010 it was 1.1 billion. By the end of this year, it is expected to have more than 1.4 billion.†At present, Xianggang has 11 self-generator sets with an installed capacity of about 160,000 kilowatts. Attached to production, the company generates electricity by recovering waste heat, residual pressure and residual energy in production. Among them, four units use coal-making and iron-making gas as fuel to generate electricity, and four units use blast furnace gas pressure to generate electricity. The Taiwan residual heat generating unit generates electricity by generating steam by dry quenching and coke. "(self-generation ratio) there is room for improvement." He Feng believes. According to the introduction, the proportion of self-generation of large steel plants can account for about 50% of electricity consumption. For example, Jiangsu Power Company accounted for one-third of the country's power supply gap before the rain, and the province's largest steel company Shagang's self-generation ratio reached 50%, which was not significantly affected. To achieve this, gas-fired combined cycle power generation (CCPP) technology is required. This technology has a relatively high investment cost, and it takes 7 to 8 years to recover the cost, which is much higher than ordinary technology. He Feng introduced that in fact, even if self-power generation is the ultimate, half of the electricity must be obtained through the grid, and the company may still affect production due to power cuts. Xianggang had considered self-built or purchased power plants. At that time, Zhang Yunchuan, secretary of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee, also expressed support, but has not yet obtained the approval of the state. For petrochemical enterprises, it is more convenient to build a power station. Li Dechu, deputy chief engineer of Guangzhou Petrochemical, told this reporter that the company's current electricity demand is 160,000 kilowatts, and its own combined heat and power capacity has reached 299,000 kilowatts, enough for its own electricity demand. “There are 99,000 kilowatts of coal-fired units and another 200,000 units that use petroleum coke as fuel.†Li Dechu said that these cogeneration units are not pure power generation units, on the one hand, they provide hot steam for the production process, and on the other hand On the one hand, these steams can be used to generate electricity. "This is a trend in the world petrochemical industry." However, such power generation costs are relatively high, so Guangzhou Petrochemical usually use electricity to help outsourcing. In the "electricity shortage" period will show the advantages, basically can be self-sufficient. “The petrochemical industry has high requirements for production safety, and does not allow large fluctuations in power. When power is tight, safety will be considered first, not cost.†Li Dechu said. Under the shadow of the electricity shortage, there is really no small space for moving, it is a small and medium-sized private enterprise engaged in manufacturing. For example, small and medium-sized steel companies are facing full expectations of possible power cuts, which has led to a high level of steel capacity utilization in the first five months of this year.
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