Domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks remain high

In 2012, Shanghai Aluminum underwent the downward pressure on the slowdown of the domestic macro-economic growth and the continuous increase in pressure on the supply of fundamentals. The focus shifted from 16,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 15,000 yuan/ton on the line, and this is not the end. In the upcoming 2013, Shanghai Aluminum still has a downside risk.

Supply and demand imbalance continues to increase

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November of 2012, the domestic cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum reached 18.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.24%, of which the electrolytic aluminum output in the last two months was 1,719,900 tons and 1,639,900 tons, both exceeding the year-on-year growth. 20%. It is currently in the off-season for the consumption of electrolytic aluminum, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase substantially.

There are two main reasons for the continuous increase in the pressure of electrolytic aluminum supply in 2012: First, since May 2012, some domestic regions announced the “subsidy price” policy for electrolytic aluminum; second, the continuous release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang.

Inventory remains high

Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply pressure has been reduced, while downstream consumption has slowed down, making electrolytic aluminum stocks remain high. From March to May, whether it was the Shanghai Aluminum stocks of the previous period or the aluminum stocks of Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Foshan, there was a destocking process. This is because the price of electrolytic aluminum near 16,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year has fallen below the production cost of some electrolytic aluminum producers in Henan and Shandong. Some of the electrolytic aluminum plants have stopped production or reduced production, but they entered Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou in June. The preferential policies for electricity tariffs have been successively implemented, and in particular, the subsidies for Henan have exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. The enthusiasm of enterprises for production has increased and the inventory has picked up. After August, Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was released one after another and stocks rose further. At present, Shanghai aluminum stocks have reached a high of 460,000 tons, and social stocks in the four places are approaching 1 million tons. Inventories in 2013 will exert no pressure on Shanghai Aluminum prices.

Downstream consumption cannot be overestimated

From January to November, China’s total aluminum output was 27,744 million tons. Although there was still year-on-year growth, it was 14% lower than the 28% growth rate in the same period of 2011.

In the depth of government regulation, real estate investment has slowed down, but after entering May, with the relaxation of the country’s monetary policy, real estate investment has made clear signs of bottoming. After entering the fourth quarter, it just needs to enter the market, and the land king will reappear. It is expected that in 2013, In the six months of the real estate industry, there is a trend of stabilization and recovery. Although the Central Economic Work Conference has decided to adjust, the regulation of the real estate market will continue to be strengthened. However, in the long run, the current real estate market in China is still under a backdrop of tight supply. In 2013, housing prices are unlikely to fall. In addition, 6 million sets of affordable housing will be started construction in 2013, which will, to a certain extent, ease the pressure of aluminum consumption in the real estate industry.

In the first quarter of 2012, the automobile production and sales volume recorded negative growth year-on-year, and it rebounded in the second half of the year. From January to November, automobile production and sales volume achieved a slight increase, which was a year-on-year growth of 4.5% and 4.0%. For the automotive industry in 2013, industry policies are not much of a benefit. The slowdown in macroeconomic growth will restrict vehicle consumption. The inflation environment may provide certain support for the consumption of cars. It is expected that car sales in 2013 will increase. The growth rate is about 8%.

In terms of household appliances, after a few years of explosive growth under the “Home Appliances to the Countryside” policy, the current home appliance market is in a saturated state. Although the state decided to invest 26.5 billion yuan in energy-saving appliance subsidies on May 16, the China Household Electrical Appliances Association launched a special subsidy program for small household appliances and kitchen appliances on August 10, but the effect is not yet obvious. The consumption potential is limited.

In summary, the domestic supply of bauxite and alumina still faces certain risks in 2013, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum will continue to be under great pressure. Coupled with the current inventory pressure, the trend of aluminum in Shanghai in 2013 is not optimistic. . It is expected that the center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum will continue to be lowered in 2013 and will remain in the range of RMB 13500-16,000/ton throughout the year. The downside risks are mainly concentrated in the first quarter and the third quarter.