Market features:
In October, the aluminum price in the international market broke through the previous period, and the April high in the international market was strong. The market's deficit was significantly higher than that of the aluminum market, and the demand was strong. This is the main driving force behind the new aluminum tax policy, both at home and abroad. The rate of rapid decline in the primary aluminum exports in the Chinese market has been growing, the state introduced a new policy, but the domestic exports may be another form of export Chinalco once again cut the price of alumina, the decline in alumina prices did not change the international market in October aluminum The price breaks through the previous period, and the stable April high in October is not unusual for Lum Aluminium. The aluminum market has quietly shifted to the market focus in the pursuit of the fund. On September 29, the closing price of 2,571 U.S. dollars per ton, on the later trading day of October 31, Lon Aluminium reached a monthly high of 2,829 U.S. dollars, an increase of 10%, and aluminum prices have reached a new high in four months. Both trading volume and open interest surprised the world. At the same time, we can see that the strong trend of Lon Aluminum is completely out of the backdrop of the decline of China's Shanghai Aluminum, and the domestic and foreign prices have rapidly declined.
In the international market, Aluminium had a strong squeeze, and the market's deficit price climbed sharply. London's aluminum price was stronger than that of copper in October, especially after the market gradually stood at 2,600 US dollars. The bullish sentiment was stronger. In mid-October, we can clearly see that the open positions of the settlement in mid-to-late December have been at a higher position. Investors are more firm about the price increase, and we can learn from the London Metal Exchange (LME) data. In the beginning of October, the spot aluminum price was 50 US dollars higher than that of the three-month aluminum, but now it has become a state of premium. In the spread trading, we all know that the general occurrence of a reverse spread is usually accompanied by tight supply. We see that the current aluminum inventories of LME are about 680,875 tons, and inventory is still mainly declining.
Output easing and strong demand are currently the main driving force for Lumium. The data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that the global aluminum supply market from January to July expanded from 87,000 tons in January to June to 24.6 million tons. The statistics of the International Aluminum Association (IAI) also showed that since April, the world’s primary aluminum production has been reduced for four consecutive months, and the average daily output in the first nine months has remained stable at 6.5 tons; China’s output is also only in August and September. Monthly breakthroughs of 810 thousand tons will be continued. The annual output will also be expected to be between 9.2 million and 9.5 million tons.
On the demand side, as the world economy is still at a relatively good stage, the demand for primary aluminum in the market is still growing. The continuous decline in inventory is a good testimony. London, October 25: The initial value announced by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) shows that, at the end of September 2006, all types of aluminum inventories held by Western producers (excluding finished finished products) fell to 2.898 million tons. The revised figure for August was 2.927 million tons, which was 3.233 million tons at the end of September 2005. September's unforged aluminum stocks fell to 1.6 million tons, and in August and September last year, they were 1.614 million tons and 1.777 million tons, respectively.
Under the influence of the new tax policy, the domestic and foreign exchange rates rapidly declined. The Ministry of Public Administration issued a notice on October 27 to adjust the tariff rates of some import and export commodities. Among them, the alumina import tariff was lowered from 5.5% to 3%, while the electrolytic aluminum export tariff was increased from 5% to 15%. Judging from the effect of fiscal policy, the increase in export tariffs on electrolytic aluminum has had the opposite effect on the aluminum market at home and abroad. Due to the increase in export costs, Shanghai Aluminum’s consecutive contracts fell from 21,340 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton in three trading days, a decrease of 4.4%, while international funds took the opportunity to raise the price of Lunun’s aluminum, while LME’s March aluminum rose. 1.2%. This has further widened the spread between the two markets, and at the same time a lot of domestic funds that cross-market anti-arbitrage in the aluminum market have paid a huge loss.
In the Chinese market, primary aluminum exports have been growing, and the country has introduced new policies. However, domestic exports of electrolyzed aluminum products may be another form of high-pollution, high-energy-consuming industries, at the expense of pollution, damage to the environment, and consumption of domestic low-cost energy. A large number of exports is actually a loss of overall national welfare. The state should control the export of resource industries such as aluminum, steel, and coal, which is reasonable, although the country has always restricted the export of primary aluminum, although the primary aluminum export was once in April of this year. The net export was 36,000 tons, but in the following months, the export of primary aluminum under the high price of foreign countries, the market is still exporting steadily, and the state will increase the intensity of regulation and control on October 27, but we say that Export tax rates for aluminum and aluminum products have not changed. In the future, electrolytic aluminum will be exported in the form of aluminum processing materials and aluminum products. In the long term, the impact of changes in the tax rate of primary aluminum will gradually be eliminated.
Chinalco cuts alumina prices again, and the downward trend in alumina prices has not changed China’s Ministry of Finance announced on October 27 that since November 1st, the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum will increase from 5 to 15%, while alumina The import tariff was reduced from 5.5% to 3%. The move will stimulate the export of alumina. We can also see that the domestic alumina production value for three consecutive months is about 1.16 million tons. The domestic import volume has already been shrinking in September, which reflects the current oxidation. The development rate of aluminum production also led Guo'Alco to cut the spot alumina sales price again from 2,950 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton on the third day after the tax adjustment, with the reduction rate reaching 19%. The drop in alumina prices can be said to be inevitable, but China is still the main control target for primary aluminum exports. The market demand is still at a peak under the economic stimulus. We think that the decline of aluminum should be short-term behavior.
Forecast of market price trend We believe that the current price may cause a certain repression of aluminum prices. However, in the long-term demand and demand, the market is still more optimistic.
In October, the aluminum price in the international market broke through the previous period, and the April high in the international market was strong. The market's deficit was significantly higher than that of the aluminum market, and the demand was strong. This is the main driving force behind the new aluminum tax policy, both at home and abroad. The rate of rapid decline in the primary aluminum exports in the Chinese market has been growing, the state introduced a new policy, but the domestic exports may be another form of export Chinalco once again cut the price of alumina, the decline in alumina prices did not change the international market in October aluminum The price breaks through the previous period, and the stable April high in October is not unusual for Lum Aluminium. The aluminum market has quietly shifted to the market focus in the pursuit of the fund. On September 29, the closing price of 2,571 U.S. dollars per ton, on the later trading day of October 31, Lon Aluminium reached a monthly high of 2,829 U.S. dollars, an increase of 10%, and aluminum prices have reached a new high in four months. Both trading volume and open interest surprised the world. At the same time, we can see that the strong trend of Lon Aluminum is completely out of the backdrop of the decline of China's Shanghai Aluminum, and the domestic and foreign prices have rapidly declined.
In the international market, Aluminium had a strong squeeze, and the market's deficit price climbed sharply. London's aluminum price was stronger than that of copper in October, especially after the market gradually stood at 2,600 US dollars. The bullish sentiment was stronger. In mid-October, we can clearly see that the open positions of the settlement in mid-to-late December have been at a higher position. Investors are more firm about the price increase, and we can learn from the London Metal Exchange (LME) data. In the beginning of October, the spot aluminum price was 50 US dollars higher than that of the three-month aluminum, but now it has become a state of premium. In the spread trading, we all know that the general occurrence of a reverse spread is usually accompanied by tight supply. We see that the current aluminum inventories of LME are about 680,875 tons, and inventory is still mainly declining.
Output easing and strong demand are currently the main driving force for Lumium. The data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that the global aluminum supply market from January to July expanded from 87,000 tons in January to June to 24.6 million tons. The statistics of the International Aluminum Association (IAI) also showed that since April, the world’s primary aluminum production has been reduced for four consecutive months, and the average daily output in the first nine months has remained stable at 6.5 tons; China’s output is also only in August and September. Monthly breakthroughs of 810 thousand tons will be continued. The annual output will also be expected to be between 9.2 million and 9.5 million tons.
On the demand side, as the world economy is still at a relatively good stage, the demand for primary aluminum in the market is still growing. The continuous decline in inventory is a good testimony. London, October 25: The initial value announced by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) shows that, at the end of September 2006, all types of aluminum inventories held by Western producers (excluding finished finished products) fell to 2.898 million tons. The revised figure for August was 2.927 million tons, which was 3.233 million tons at the end of September 2005. September's unforged aluminum stocks fell to 1.6 million tons, and in August and September last year, they were 1.614 million tons and 1.777 million tons, respectively.
Under the influence of the new tax policy, the domestic and foreign exchange rates rapidly declined. The Ministry of Public Administration issued a notice on October 27 to adjust the tariff rates of some import and export commodities. Among them, the alumina import tariff was lowered from 5.5% to 3%, while the electrolytic aluminum export tariff was increased from 5% to 15%. Judging from the effect of fiscal policy, the increase in export tariffs on electrolytic aluminum has had the opposite effect on the aluminum market at home and abroad. Due to the increase in export costs, Shanghai Aluminum’s consecutive contracts fell from 21,340 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton in three trading days, a decrease of 4.4%, while international funds took the opportunity to raise the price of Lunun’s aluminum, while LME’s March aluminum rose. 1.2%. This has further widened the spread between the two markets, and at the same time a lot of domestic funds that cross-market anti-arbitrage in the aluminum market have paid a huge loss.
In the Chinese market, primary aluminum exports have been growing, and the country has introduced new policies. However, domestic exports of electrolyzed aluminum products may be another form of high-pollution, high-energy-consuming industries, at the expense of pollution, damage to the environment, and consumption of domestic low-cost energy. A large number of exports is actually a loss of overall national welfare. The state should control the export of resource industries such as aluminum, steel, and coal, which is reasonable, although the country has always restricted the export of primary aluminum, although the primary aluminum export was once in April of this year. The net export was 36,000 tons, but in the following months, the export of primary aluminum under the high price of foreign countries, the market is still exporting steadily, and the state will increase the intensity of regulation and control on October 27, but we say that Export tax rates for aluminum and aluminum products have not changed. In the future, electrolytic aluminum will be exported in the form of aluminum processing materials and aluminum products. In the long term, the impact of changes in the tax rate of primary aluminum will gradually be eliminated.
Chinalco cuts alumina prices again, and the downward trend in alumina prices has not changed China’s Ministry of Finance announced on October 27 that since November 1st, the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum will increase from 5 to 15%, while alumina The import tariff was reduced from 5.5% to 3%. The move will stimulate the export of alumina. We can also see that the domestic alumina production value for three consecutive months is about 1.16 million tons. The domestic import volume has already been shrinking in September, which reflects the current oxidation. The development rate of aluminum production also led Guo'Alco to cut the spot alumina sales price again from 2,950 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton on the third day after the tax adjustment, with the reduction rate reaching 19%. The drop in alumina prices can be said to be inevitable, but China is still the main control target for primary aluminum exports. The market demand is still at a peak under the economic stimulus. We think that the decline of aluminum should be short-term behavior.
Forecast of market price trend We believe that the current price may cause a certain repression of aluminum prices. However, in the long-term demand and demand, the market is still more optimistic.
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