To solve the imbalance of power supply area, we should realize the transition from “single relying on coal transportation†to “conveying coal and electricity simultaneouslyâ€, and shifting from “local balanced development mode†to “large-scale resource optimization and allocation†development mode.
Since September, power shortages have appeared in many provinces and cities in China. Although the country's power installed capacity is generally abundant, compared with last year, high-energy consumption power consumption continues to be high, cross-province coal is not smooth, coal prices are rising, coal and electricity transportation is vulnerable to extreme weather, and local areas are “hardâ€. Electricity, such as increased pressure, will constitute an unfavorable factor in power security this winter.
Electricity demand has not decreased, "coal panic" is expected to intensify
The China Electricity Council expects that the annual installed capacity of electric power will reach 1.05 billion kilowatts; relevant departments and experts expect that the power gap may be more than 30 million kilowatts this winter, accounting for about 0.28% of the total installed capacity of electricity. Moreover, from the hours of thermal power utilization, it reached 3,557 hours in the first eight months, higher than the same period in 2008, 2009 and 2010, but slightly lower than the same period in 2007, and lower than the level of hard power shortage in the country in 2005 ( 3977 hours).
Overall, it is unlikely that large-scale “hard power shortages†will occur due to insufficient power generation capacity in the country. However, compared with last year, the increase in unfavorable factors this winter may increase the expectations of “panicâ€.
At present, the demand for electricity in the country continues to operate at a high level, and the suppression effect of the currency control policy on the key coal-fired power industry has not yet appeared. From January to August, the cumulative electricity consumption growth rate reached 11.9%, of which 13 provinces in June and August had electricity consumption growth rate of more than 13%, reflecting that demand is still hot. Relevant experts believe that about 10% of the GDP growth rate target, about 10% of the electricity growth rate will be ideal.
From a monthly perspective, electricity consumption in July exceeded 400 billion kWh for the first time, and it was still at a high level of 434.3 billion kWh in August. Among them, the demand for electricity industry is still strong.
In the month of August, the electricity consumption of chemical industry, building materials, ferrous metal smelting, non-ferrous metal smelting, and manufacturing industries all showed a steady growth trend. Although the country has previously implemented monetary regulation and control policies including interest rate hikes, from the previous eight months of electricity consumption data, the effect of the policy has not been transmitted to the downstream consumption of coal-fired power, and the support factors of industrial demand for coal prices have not been significantly weakened. In the second half of last year, due to the increase in energy conservation and emission reduction, the electricity consumption was weaker than that in the first half of the year. Considering the relatively low base, it is expected that the increase in industrial electricity consumption will increase in the fourth quarter of this year.
According to the statistics of the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, from January to July this year, the national coal output was 2.12 billion tons, up 13.5% year-on-year; coal consumption was 2.16 billion tons, up 10% year-on-year. Although the power generation capacity is generally sufficient, the thermal coal security is not as loose as last year. In addition, due to the increase in coal prices and the lack of cross-provincial coal transportation, the risk of lack of electricity in the “hot coal supply†in some areas in winter has increased.
Most provinces (cities) in Central China Power Grid are areas where coal resources are scarce. The dependence on coal demand is large, and the problem of “no fire and no coal†is prominent. During the winter and winter seasons, the Central China Power Grid began to cut off power in November. Compared with other regions, the time for power shortage is earlier. Moreover, in April and May of last year, there was no shortage of electricity in the Central China region, but this year there was a power cut. This means that the Central China Power Grid is being transformed from a seasonal, local power shortage to a full-year, regional-wide power shortage.
In particular, the amount of hydropower generated during the dry season in winter has dropped sharply, and the problem of supply of coal will be more prominent. Huazhong Power Grid has a hydropower installed capacity of more than 44 million kilowatts (excluding the Three Gorges), accounting for 32% of the total installed capacity. There are many network internal diameter flow hydropower stations, small reservoirs with large capacity and good regulation performance, and hydropower blocked capacity during the dry season in winter. Nearly 10 million kilowatts. Therefore, the shortage of winter power supply in Central China Power Grid is even more serious. Without considering the power-limiting factor, Huazhong Power Grid Company expects that the total supply shortage of coal in the whole winter (November to February) will be about 17 million tons.
The proportion of hydropower installed capacity in the southern region is about 30%, and the balance of power supply is greatly affected by hydropower. In this year's traditional "flood season" became a "dry season", and hydropower output fell sharply. China Southern Power Grid expects a power shortage of 14 million kilowatts in the five southern provinces in the fourth quarter, and a gap of 10 million to 15 million kilowatts in the first half of next year. According to the past rules, the water supply will be dry in winter, and the power supply will rely more on thermal power. In addition to February this year, the monthly power generation of thermal power in China has exceeded 300 billion kWh continuously since December 2010, and the monthly growth rate since February is higher than 10%. In August, it was 345.7 billion kWh, which was the largest month for thermal power generation, up 15.6% year-on-year. The increase in thermal power generation has further exacerbated the competition for coal resources.
The “price contradiction†existing in different degrees will still affect the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises, especially the main coal producing areas with “low coal price and low electricity price†due to historical reasons. The coal cost of some power plants in Shanxi has accounted for more than 80% of the total operating costs, and the power plant has become more and more distressed. This summer, Shanxi had a power generation capacity of more than 14 million kilowatts due to the “unplanned outage†of the thermal power unit and its output, and the power gap exceeded 2 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of 13 power generation enterprises in central and southern Shanxi is 13.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 41.93% of the province's installed capacity. On August 20th, the 13 coal-fired power plants jointly asked the Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association for assistance in the urgent request that “the increase of the on-grid tariff of 3.09 cents in the province on April 10, 2011, but due to the price of the coal market Still rising sharply, this price increase only solved the 1/4 price of electricity in the central and southern power plants. From June to July, 13 power plants still lost 616 million yuan and the loss is still expanding. The cash flow deficit is further aggravated. Lending, coal mines also lack the enthusiasm of coal supply, a slight delay in repayment of loans, it may lead to the break of the power plant capital chain." 13 power plants are in a difficult situation, facing the lack of money to buy coal, no coal power generation.
Henan is the only coal-rich province in Central China. The installed capacity of Henan Power Grid reached 48.81 million kilowatts. Due to serious losses and poor coal quality, the first round of power shortage in the first half of this year was about 13.26 million kilowatts. Jiangsu Province's Internet benchmark price is 0.509 yuan / kWh (including desulfurization price of 0.015 yuan), 5,500 kcal of coal per ton of 740 yuan, 600,000 kilowatts of thermal power units can still be profitable, but as of September 26, Qinhuangdao The port closing price has risen to 835 yuan / ton.
Due to the rapid economic development during the 11th Five-Year Plan period and the accumulation of a large power consumption base, the contradiction between the growth of power supply growth in some regions and the continuous growth of demand has been concentrated in this year, and the hidden danger of “hard power shortage†has increased.
According to the 2010 annual supervision report of the SERC, the installed capacity of power generation in Zhejiang, Guangxi and Jiangsu increased by 1.97%, -1.47% and 14.27% respectively in 2010, while the growth rate of electricity consumption was faster than the increase of installed capacity, reaching 14.31% and 15.93 respectively. %, 16.36%. In the first half of this year, among the newly added power generation capacity of the national infrastructure, the newly installed capacity in the northwest region accounted for 21.5% of the national total, and its proportion increased by 15.0 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The proportion of new power generation installed capacity in the eastern region accounted for the whole country. The decrease was 13.9 percentage points over the same period. The newly added installed capacity has been significantly reduced, which has intensified the contradiction between power supply and demand in the region.
In addition, the production and transportation of coal and electricity in winter are highly susceptible to sudden events such as dry water and abnormal weather. Recently, the winter storage began, coal prices rose earlier than in previous years. Under the situation that coal price mechanism is not smooth, the “panic†expectation of coal price increase and coal power supply is expected to increase, and it is higher than the actual situation.
Deep contradictions in the coal and electricity field have intensified
Unlike the nationwide “hard power shortage†caused by insufficient power installation in 2004 and the “soft power shortage†caused by insufficient supply of coal in 2008, the reasons for the two-wheeled power shortage this year are more complicated, exposing the long-term accumulation of coal and electricity. The deep contradiction, these contradictions have increased the adverse impact of “lack of coal and electricity shortage†in recent years.
The first is the lag in power system reform, and the price contradiction has deep drawbacks. In April and June of this year, the country raised the on-grid tariffs in some regions, which alleviated the pressure on power generation costs brought about by the increase in coal prices to some extent, and the peak of summer electricity consumption was smooth. However, the increase in coal prices in recent years has clearly been much higher than the increase in electricity prices. Since the low point since the international financial crisis hit in August 2009, coal prices have never seen a decent correction. Since 2003, the representative Qinhuangdao Shanxi You Mix 5500 kcal coal price has increased by more than 200%, while the sales price has risen less than 40%. And often after the price adjustment, the coal price will swallow the profits brought by the electricity price adjustment at a faster rate. The time interval between coal and electricity companies due to price problems is getting shorter and shorter. Thermal power enterprises in Central China Power Grid have suffered large losses, and power generation is unprofitable. Power generation enterprises are not motivated to purchase coal and coal storage. The maximum coal shortage capacity is increasing, and coal shortage shutdown has been normalized.
Some experts believe that China's power market reform is lagging behind, and the market's "invisible hand" is difficult to play its role. It is a deep-rooted source of increasingly prominent coal price conflicts in recent years. In the four links of “supply, transmission, distribution and sale†of power supply, except for the natural monopoly of transmission and distribution, the other two links of transmission and sale do not have natural monopoly. Although the separation of the plant network is realized, In the power generation segment, the degree of marketization is obviously insufficient. The power generation link is currently only introducing competition in the construction and construction stages. The power generation plan and the on-grid price of the power generation operation are still strictly regulated by the government. The power generation enterprise is not a market subject in the true sense. Insufficient willingness to strengthen management, improve efficiency, and reduce costs; power generation companies have invested their main energy in finding government electricity pricing policies. In the sale of electricity, the electricity price is solidified, and the electricity price does not reflect the market supply and demand relationship, the scarcity of resources and the impact on the environment, and cannot guide consumption.
Second, resource allocation is not efficient. Under the circumstances of the overall installed capacity, the "hard power shortage" of insufficient power supply in the eastern region coexisted with the "soft power shortage" in some areas. According to the China Electricity Council, during the winter season, the northeast, northwest and Mengxi power grids have surplus. At the same time, the supply and demand tension in some areas will be wider than the previous year, and the gap will be widened.
Insiders pointed out that the plan approval mechanism for power projects has made it difficult for power investment to accurately and timely reflect market demand, and it is even unable to keep up with market changes. Huazhong Power Grid expects that the power supply and demand situation in Central China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period will remain in a tense situation and the power gap will be further expanded. At the same time, in recent years, the growth rate of thermal power is much faster than that of coal, and the pressure on coal supply is increasing. From 2005 to 2010, China's raw coal output increased by 47.9%, while the thermal power installed capacity increased by 80.55% during the same period. Before the coal resources integration in the coal province of Shanxi, the production of a large number of small coal mines was not included in the official statistics. Therefore, the statistical data may be lower than the actual market supply data at that time. After the integration of coal resources, the statistics are basically close to the real production. . Taking this factor into consideration, the actual growth of coal from 2005 to 2010 may be lower than that of thermal power.
To solve the above problems, in addition to increasing the power supply capacity on the spot, we must speed up the transmission of abundant power from the large coal, hydropower and wind power bases in the western region to the central load center, which not only solves the problem of surplus power in the western region, but also solves the problem of power in the central region. The problem of tension has been transformed from “singlely relying on coal transportation†to “conveying coal and electricity transmissionâ€, and the transformation from “local balanced development mode†to “optimal allocation of large-scale resourcesâ€.
Since September, power shortages have appeared in many provinces and cities in China. Although the country's power installed capacity is generally abundant, compared with last year, high-energy consumption power consumption continues to be high, cross-province coal is not smooth, coal prices are rising, coal and electricity transportation is vulnerable to extreme weather, and local areas are “hardâ€. Electricity, such as increased pressure, will constitute an unfavorable factor in power security this winter.
Electricity demand has not decreased, "coal panic" is expected to intensify
The China Electricity Council expects that the annual installed capacity of electric power will reach 1.05 billion kilowatts; relevant departments and experts expect that the power gap may be more than 30 million kilowatts this winter, accounting for about 0.28% of the total installed capacity of electricity. Moreover, from the hours of thermal power utilization, it reached 3,557 hours in the first eight months, higher than the same period in 2008, 2009 and 2010, but slightly lower than the same period in 2007, and lower than the level of hard power shortage in the country in 2005 ( 3977 hours).
Overall, it is unlikely that large-scale “hard power shortages†will occur due to insufficient power generation capacity in the country. However, compared with last year, the increase in unfavorable factors this winter may increase the expectations of “panicâ€.
At present, the demand for electricity in the country continues to operate at a high level, and the suppression effect of the currency control policy on the key coal-fired power industry has not yet appeared. From January to August, the cumulative electricity consumption growth rate reached 11.9%, of which 13 provinces in June and August had electricity consumption growth rate of more than 13%, reflecting that demand is still hot. Relevant experts believe that about 10% of the GDP growth rate target, about 10% of the electricity growth rate will be ideal.
From a monthly perspective, electricity consumption in July exceeded 400 billion kWh for the first time, and it was still at a high level of 434.3 billion kWh in August. Among them, the demand for electricity industry is still strong.
In the month of August, the electricity consumption of chemical industry, building materials, ferrous metal smelting, non-ferrous metal smelting, and manufacturing industries all showed a steady growth trend. Although the country has previously implemented monetary regulation and control policies including interest rate hikes, from the previous eight months of electricity consumption data, the effect of the policy has not been transmitted to the downstream consumption of coal-fired power, and the support factors of industrial demand for coal prices have not been significantly weakened. In the second half of last year, due to the increase in energy conservation and emission reduction, the electricity consumption was weaker than that in the first half of the year. Considering the relatively low base, it is expected that the increase in industrial electricity consumption will increase in the fourth quarter of this year.
According to the statistics of the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, from January to July this year, the national coal output was 2.12 billion tons, up 13.5% year-on-year; coal consumption was 2.16 billion tons, up 10% year-on-year. Although the power generation capacity is generally sufficient, the thermal coal security is not as loose as last year. In addition, due to the increase in coal prices and the lack of cross-provincial coal transportation, the risk of lack of electricity in the “hot coal supply†in some areas in winter has increased.
Most provinces (cities) in Central China Power Grid are areas where coal resources are scarce. The dependence on coal demand is large, and the problem of “no fire and no coal†is prominent. During the winter and winter seasons, the Central China Power Grid began to cut off power in November. Compared with other regions, the time for power shortage is earlier. Moreover, in April and May of last year, there was no shortage of electricity in the Central China region, but this year there was a power cut. This means that the Central China Power Grid is being transformed from a seasonal, local power shortage to a full-year, regional-wide power shortage.
In particular, the amount of hydropower generated during the dry season in winter has dropped sharply, and the problem of supply of coal will be more prominent. Huazhong Power Grid has a hydropower installed capacity of more than 44 million kilowatts (excluding the Three Gorges), accounting for 32% of the total installed capacity. There are many network internal diameter flow hydropower stations, small reservoirs with large capacity and good regulation performance, and hydropower blocked capacity during the dry season in winter. Nearly 10 million kilowatts. Therefore, the shortage of winter power supply in Central China Power Grid is even more serious. Without considering the power-limiting factor, Huazhong Power Grid Company expects that the total supply shortage of coal in the whole winter (November to February) will be about 17 million tons.
The proportion of hydropower installed capacity in the southern region is about 30%, and the balance of power supply is greatly affected by hydropower. In this year's traditional "flood season" became a "dry season", and hydropower output fell sharply. China Southern Power Grid expects a power shortage of 14 million kilowatts in the five southern provinces in the fourth quarter, and a gap of 10 million to 15 million kilowatts in the first half of next year. According to the past rules, the water supply will be dry in winter, and the power supply will rely more on thermal power. In addition to February this year, the monthly power generation of thermal power in China has exceeded 300 billion kWh continuously since December 2010, and the monthly growth rate since February is higher than 10%. In August, it was 345.7 billion kWh, which was the largest month for thermal power generation, up 15.6% year-on-year. The increase in thermal power generation has further exacerbated the competition for coal resources.
The “price contradiction†existing in different degrees will still affect the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises, especially the main coal producing areas with “low coal price and low electricity price†due to historical reasons. The coal cost of some power plants in Shanxi has accounted for more than 80% of the total operating costs, and the power plant has become more and more distressed. This summer, Shanxi had a power generation capacity of more than 14 million kilowatts due to the “unplanned outage†of the thermal power unit and its output, and the power gap exceeded 2 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of 13 power generation enterprises in central and southern Shanxi is 13.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 41.93% of the province's installed capacity. On August 20th, the 13 coal-fired power plants jointly asked the Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association for assistance in the urgent request that “the increase of the on-grid tariff of 3.09 cents in the province on April 10, 2011, but due to the price of the coal market Still rising sharply, this price increase only solved the 1/4 price of electricity in the central and southern power plants. From June to July, 13 power plants still lost 616 million yuan and the loss is still expanding. The cash flow deficit is further aggravated. Lending, coal mines also lack the enthusiasm of coal supply, a slight delay in repayment of loans, it may lead to the break of the power plant capital chain." 13 power plants are in a difficult situation, facing the lack of money to buy coal, no coal power generation.
Henan is the only coal-rich province in Central China. The installed capacity of Henan Power Grid reached 48.81 million kilowatts. Due to serious losses and poor coal quality, the first round of power shortage in the first half of this year was about 13.26 million kilowatts. Jiangsu Province's Internet benchmark price is 0.509 yuan / kWh (including desulfurization price of 0.015 yuan), 5,500 kcal of coal per ton of 740 yuan, 600,000 kilowatts of thermal power units can still be profitable, but as of September 26, Qinhuangdao The port closing price has risen to 835 yuan / ton.
Due to the rapid economic development during the 11th Five-Year Plan period and the accumulation of a large power consumption base, the contradiction between the growth of power supply growth in some regions and the continuous growth of demand has been concentrated in this year, and the hidden danger of “hard power shortage†has increased.
According to the 2010 annual supervision report of the SERC, the installed capacity of power generation in Zhejiang, Guangxi and Jiangsu increased by 1.97%, -1.47% and 14.27% respectively in 2010, while the growth rate of electricity consumption was faster than the increase of installed capacity, reaching 14.31% and 15.93 respectively. %, 16.36%. In the first half of this year, among the newly added power generation capacity of the national infrastructure, the newly installed capacity in the northwest region accounted for 21.5% of the national total, and its proportion increased by 15.0 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The proportion of new power generation installed capacity in the eastern region accounted for the whole country. The decrease was 13.9 percentage points over the same period. The newly added installed capacity has been significantly reduced, which has intensified the contradiction between power supply and demand in the region.
In addition, the production and transportation of coal and electricity in winter are highly susceptible to sudden events such as dry water and abnormal weather. Recently, the winter storage began, coal prices rose earlier than in previous years. Under the situation that coal price mechanism is not smooth, the “panic†expectation of coal price increase and coal power supply is expected to increase, and it is higher than the actual situation.
Deep contradictions in the coal and electricity field have intensified
Unlike the nationwide “hard power shortage†caused by insufficient power installation in 2004 and the “soft power shortage†caused by insufficient supply of coal in 2008, the reasons for the two-wheeled power shortage this year are more complicated, exposing the long-term accumulation of coal and electricity. The deep contradiction, these contradictions have increased the adverse impact of “lack of coal and electricity shortage†in recent years.
The first is the lag in power system reform, and the price contradiction has deep drawbacks. In April and June of this year, the country raised the on-grid tariffs in some regions, which alleviated the pressure on power generation costs brought about by the increase in coal prices to some extent, and the peak of summer electricity consumption was smooth. However, the increase in coal prices in recent years has clearly been much higher than the increase in electricity prices. Since the low point since the international financial crisis hit in August 2009, coal prices have never seen a decent correction. Since 2003, the representative Qinhuangdao Shanxi You Mix 5500 kcal coal price has increased by more than 200%, while the sales price has risen less than 40%. And often after the price adjustment, the coal price will swallow the profits brought by the electricity price adjustment at a faster rate. The time interval between coal and electricity companies due to price problems is getting shorter and shorter. Thermal power enterprises in Central China Power Grid have suffered large losses, and power generation is unprofitable. Power generation enterprises are not motivated to purchase coal and coal storage. The maximum coal shortage capacity is increasing, and coal shortage shutdown has been normalized.
Some experts believe that China's power market reform is lagging behind, and the market's "invisible hand" is difficult to play its role. It is a deep-rooted source of increasingly prominent coal price conflicts in recent years. In the four links of “supply, transmission, distribution and sale†of power supply, except for the natural monopoly of transmission and distribution, the other two links of transmission and sale do not have natural monopoly. Although the separation of the plant network is realized, In the power generation segment, the degree of marketization is obviously insufficient. The power generation link is currently only introducing competition in the construction and construction stages. The power generation plan and the on-grid price of the power generation operation are still strictly regulated by the government. The power generation enterprise is not a market subject in the true sense. Insufficient willingness to strengthen management, improve efficiency, and reduce costs; power generation companies have invested their main energy in finding government electricity pricing policies. In the sale of electricity, the electricity price is solidified, and the electricity price does not reflect the market supply and demand relationship, the scarcity of resources and the impact on the environment, and cannot guide consumption.
Second, resource allocation is not efficient. Under the circumstances of the overall installed capacity, the "hard power shortage" of insufficient power supply in the eastern region coexisted with the "soft power shortage" in some areas. According to the China Electricity Council, during the winter season, the northeast, northwest and Mengxi power grids have surplus. At the same time, the supply and demand tension in some areas will be wider than the previous year, and the gap will be widened.
Insiders pointed out that the plan approval mechanism for power projects has made it difficult for power investment to accurately and timely reflect market demand, and it is even unable to keep up with market changes. Huazhong Power Grid expects that the power supply and demand situation in Central China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period will remain in a tense situation and the power gap will be further expanded. At the same time, in recent years, the growth rate of thermal power is much faster than that of coal, and the pressure on coal supply is increasing. From 2005 to 2010, China's raw coal output increased by 47.9%, while the thermal power installed capacity increased by 80.55% during the same period. Before the coal resources integration in the coal province of Shanxi, the production of a large number of small coal mines was not included in the official statistics. Therefore, the statistical data may be lower than the actual market supply data at that time. After the integration of coal resources, the statistics are basically close to the real production. . Taking this factor into consideration, the actual growth of coal from 2005 to 2010 may be lower than that of thermal power.
To solve the above problems, in addition to increasing the power supply capacity on the spot, we must speed up the transmission of abundant power from the large coal, hydropower and wind power bases in the western region to the central load center, which not only solves the problem of surplus power in the western region, but also solves the problem of power in the central region. The problem of tension has been transformed from “singlely relying on coal transportation†to “conveying coal and electricity transmissionâ€, and the transformation from “local balanced development mode†to “optimal allocation of large-scale resourcesâ€.
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