According to data just released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy grew at a rate of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. Although it hit its lowest level in more than two years, it is still higher than the previously expected 8.7%. Thanks to this boost, the international oil price rose strongly on January 17, again breaking through $100/barrel.
The New York Fed Bank also announced on January 17 that the New York State manufacturing index hit its highest level in nine months in January, indicating continued manufacturing recovery and increased investor confidence.
However, the biggest pressure on the rise in international oil prices in 2012 was still from the situation in Iran.
“If the European debt crisis triggers a second recession, international oil prices will again bottom out; if the war in Iran breaks out, international oil prices may hit the historical high of $147/barrel in 2008.†Zhang Yuejun, an associate professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, accepts the Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. †pointed out during the interview.
The reporter recently discovered in an interview that the current predictions for this year's international oil prices are divided into two categories: "bullish" and "favorable". The bulls mainly consider the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East; and the bears are taking into account the global economic recession, especially in Europe.
Among them, as a resolute supporter of the bullish camp, Jason Simpkins, executive editor of the U.S. "Fortune Morning Post," wrote in a recent article: "Oil prices are ups and downs in 2011, but don't expect it to happen in 2012. Because, Oil prices are likely to rise linearly in 2012.†He believes that by mid-summer, it may reach $150/barrel.
However, the industry generally believes that the growth of the world economy in 2012 is very fragile. If you do not consider the uncertainty of the situation in Iran, the oil price level will be lower than last year.
Price increase? Reduce prices?
Every January, various forecasts are continuously released. A report that was accurately predicted in 2011 again attracted the attention of journalists from the China Science Journal this year.
On January 13, the Research Center for Energy and Environmental Policy of Beijing Institute of Technology released the "International crude oil price analysis and trend forecast for 2012". It pointed out that the average price of WTI crude oil in the United States in 2012 will slightly exceed 2011, reaching 95-105 US dollars / barrel, and the difference between Brent North Sea and Brent will remain at 10-15 US dollars / barrel.
This forecast is similar to the forecast of the Scientific Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The latter expects that the average WTI price in 2012 will increase by approximately 11.3% year-on-year, and will increase to around US$105/bbl.
On January 11, the forecast report issued by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation also believes that oil prices will continue to rise in 2012.
In foreign countries, the "New York Times" also published an article in recent days that the global oil price will fluctuate roughly from $100 to $120 per barrel in 2012.
The United States Goldman Sachs Group also holds the same view. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that Brent crude oil prices will reach US$120/barrel in July 2012.
However, among the rising price, some scholars believe that the average price of international oil prices is expected to decline. Wang Zhen, executive director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center of China University of Petroleum, expects WTI crude oil prices to be in the range of 80 to 90 US dollars/barrel and Brent crude oil prices to return to below US$100/barrel. Wang Zhen said that the decline in international oil prices will help ease the domestic oil shortage and provide a loose external environment for the new refined oil pricing mechanism.
Yu Le'an, an associate researcher at the Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the China Science Journal that while rising international oil prices are not conducive to creating a good time for reform of domestic refined oil prices, this does not mean that domestic energy price reforms will certainly be affected.
Iran is the biggest source of uncertainty for Middle East oil exports. Each year, more than 750 million tons of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 90% of the total oil exports of the Gulf region and 1/5 of global oil production.
It is now widely estimated that if the Strait of Hormuz is vilified, it will have a disastrous effect on the global oil market. There are even hedges that believe that international crude oil prices will rise to $170/barrel.
However, Zhang Yuejun said that due to the uncertain future of the European debt crisis, it is difficult for global oil demand to achieve significant growth; in addition, OPEC members have decided to increase the oil output limit in the first half of the year to 30 million barrels per day, which will obviously suppress higher oil prices. Therefore, it is expected that as long as Iran The situation is controllable. In the first quarter of 2012, international oil prices will maintain a slight concussion.
In 2012, the global economy, especially the European economy, will remain in a difficult and slow recovery process. According to the "World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2012" issued by the United Nations, the global economy will continue to slow down in the next two years, and may even decline again.
At present, the biggest obstacle is that it is difficult for European countries to form a consensus on how to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. The possibility of further proliferation and upgrading of the European debt crisis is greater.
Ren Ruoen, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, told reporters on January 17 that the debt crisis in Europe cannot be solved miraculously. The European economy may take quite a long time to recover.
However, Simpkins believes that in spite of the deep debt crisis in Europe, the oil consumption in the region has shown an upward trend in 2011 and will steadily increase in 2012.
In addition, Zhang Yuejun believes that the US economic recovery will drive the international crude oil demand to rise slightly.
Recently, Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase made optimistic forecasts on the growth rate of the US economy in 2012. Most Wall Street analysts believe that the Fed will launch a new round of large-scale economic stimulus plan in 2012.
Emerging economies are still the main driving force According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth rate in 2011 was 9.2%. Although China's economic growth has slowed, it is still much higher than the global average of 4.0% in 2011.
This also makes China considered to be the most important country in the world for oil consumption growth for some time in the future.
Although emerging economies with China as the representative of the economy tend to slow down, they are still regarded by the international agencies as the main driving force for the growth of global crude oil demand.
In November 2011, the International Energy Agency stated in its annual energy report that world oil demand will increase by 14% from 2010 to 2035. It is worth noting that the net increase in oil demand almost entirely originates from emerging economies.
According to the latest forecast by the American Energy Information Association (EIA), China's average daily oil demand in 2012 will increase by 5.4% from 2011. In addition, according to recent forecasts by Nomura Securities, China and India will account for nearly 60% of global economic growth in 2012.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2011 adjusted the development of China’s economy in 2012 to “stabilizing and progressing†and will continue to implement aggressive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies. It is expected that the Chinese economy will maintain a moderate growth in 2012. speed.
“Although the economic growth rate of emerging economies in 2012 tends to slow down, it will still lead the global economy and play an important role in the growth of international crude oil demand.†Zhang Yuejun said.
The New York Fed Bank also announced on January 17 that the New York State manufacturing index hit its highest level in nine months in January, indicating continued manufacturing recovery and increased investor confidence.
However, the biggest pressure on the rise in international oil prices in 2012 was still from the situation in Iran.
“If the European debt crisis triggers a second recession, international oil prices will again bottom out; if the war in Iran breaks out, international oil prices may hit the historical high of $147/barrel in 2008.†Zhang Yuejun, an associate professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, accepts the Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. †pointed out during the interview.
The reporter recently discovered in an interview that the current predictions for this year's international oil prices are divided into two categories: "bullish" and "favorable". The bulls mainly consider the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East; and the bears are taking into account the global economic recession, especially in Europe.
Among them, as a resolute supporter of the bullish camp, Jason Simpkins, executive editor of the U.S. "Fortune Morning Post," wrote in a recent article: "Oil prices are ups and downs in 2011, but don't expect it to happen in 2012. Because, Oil prices are likely to rise linearly in 2012.†He believes that by mid-summer, it may reach $150/barrel.
However, the industry generally believes that the growth of the world economy in 2012 is very fragile. If you do not consider the uncertainty of the situation in Iran, the oil price level will be lower than last year.
Price increase? Reduce prices?
Every January, various forecasts are continuously released. A report that was accurately predicted in 2011 again attracted the attention of journalists from the China Science Journal this year.
On January 13, the Research Center for Energy and Environmental Policy of Beijing Institute of Technology released the "International crude oil price analysis and trend forecast for 2012". It pointed out that the average price of WTI crude oil in the United States in 2012 will slightly exceed 2011, reaching 95-105 US dollars / barrel, and the difference between Brent North Sea and Brent will remain at 10-15 US dollars / barrel.
This forecast is similar to the forecast of the Scientific Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The latter expects that the average WTI price in 2012 will increase by approximately 11.3% year-on-year, and will increase to around US$105/bbl.
On January 11, the forecast report issued by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation also believes that oil prices will continue to rise in 2012.
In foreign countries, the "New York Times" also published an article in recent days that the global oil price will fluctuate roughly from $100 to $120 per barrel in 2012.
The United States Goldman Sachs Group also holds the same view. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that Brent crude oil prices will reach US$120/barrel in July 2012.
However, among the rising price, some scholars believe that the average price of international oil prices is expected to decline. Wang Zhen, executive director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center of China University of Petroleum, expects WTI crude oil prices to be in the range of 80 to 90 US dollars/barrel and Brent crude oil prices to return to below US$100/barrel. Wang Zhen said that the decline in international oil prices will help ease the domestic oil shortage and provide a loose external environment for the new refined oil pricing mechanism.
Yu Le'an, an associate researcher at the Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the China Science Journal that while rising international oil prices are not conducive to creating a good time for reform of domestic refined oil prices, this does not mean that domestic energy price reforms will certainly be affected.
Iran is the biggest source of uncertainty for Middle East oil exports. Each year, more than 750 million tons of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 90% of the total oil exports of the Gulf region and 1/5 of global oil production.
It is now widely estimated that if the Strait of Hormuz is vilified, it will have a disastrous effect on the global oil market. There are even hedges that believe that international crude oil prices will rise to $170/barrel.
However, Zhang Yuejun said that due to the uncertain future of the European debt crisis, it is difficult for global oil demand to achieve significant growth; in addition, OPEC members have decided to increase the oil output limit in the first half of the year to 30 million barrels per day, which will obviously suppress higher oil prices. Therefore, it is expected that as long as Iran The situation is controllable. In the first quarter of 2012, international oil prices will maintain a slight concussion.
In 2012, the global economy, especially the European economy, will remain in a difficult and slow recovery process. According to the "World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2012" issued by the United Nations, the global economy will continue to slow down in the next two years, and may even decline again.
At present, the biggest obstacle is that it is difficult for European countries to form a consensus on how to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. The possibility of further proliferation and upgrading of the European debt crisis is greater.
Ren Ruoen, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, told reporters on January 17 that the debt crisis in Europe cannot be solved miraculously. The European economy may take quite a long time to recover.
However, Simpkins believes that in spite of the deep debt crisis in Europe, the oil consumption in the region has shown an upward trend in 2011 and will steadily increase in 2012.
In addition, Zhang Yuejun believes that the US economic recovery will drive the international crude oil demand to rise slightly.
Recently, Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase made optimistic forecasts on the growth rate of the US economy in 2012. Most Wall Street analysts believe that the Fed will launch a new round of large-scale economic stimulus plan in 2012.
Emerging economies are still the main driving force According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth rate in 2011 was 9.2%. Although China's economic growth has slowed, it is still much higher than the global average of 4.0% in 2011.
This also makes China considered to be the most important country in the world for oil consumption growth for some time in the future.
Although emerging economies with China as the representative of the economy tend to slow down, they are still regarded by the international agencies as the main driving force for the growth of global crude oil demand.
In November 2011, the International Energy Agency stated in its annual energy report that world oil demand will increase by 14% from 2010 to 2035. It is worth noting that the net increase in oil demand almost entirely originates from emerging economies.
According to the latest forecast by the American Energy Information Association (EIA), China's average daily oil demand in 2012 will increase by 5.4% from 2011. In addition, according to recent forecasts by Nomura Securities, China and India will account for nearly 60% of global economic growth in 2012.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2011 adjusted the development of China’s economy in 2012 to “stabilizing and progressing†and will continue to implement aggressive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies. It is expected that the Chinese economy will maintain a moderate growth in 2012. speed.
“Although the economic growth rate of emerging economies in 2012 tends to slow down, it will still lead the global economy and play an important role in the growth of international crude oil demand.†Zhang Yuejun said.
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