In this year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, although A-shares are difficult to reflect the impact of the deterioration of the European debt crisis on China's economy and capital market due to the rest of the market, the A-shares that resumed trading yesterday still responded with a decline. In this regard, relevant experts interviewed by the "Financial Investment News" reporter said that the Chinese economy may be negatively affected, and domestic monetary policy will not turn. Economic or negative impact He Qiang, director of the Securities and Futures Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that if only the debt crisis in Greece deteriorates, its impact will not be great, because Greece is a small country. But Italy's current public debt has reached 1.9 trillion euros, accounting for 120% of GDP, which means the Italian government is at risk of bankruptcy. It is reported that in order to avoid a debt crisis, the Italian Senate last Wednesday adopted a austerity plan with a total size of more than 50 billion euros, which aims to balance the 2013 budget and help the government reduce huge debts. At the same time, some foreign media said that the Italian government is seeking assistance from China and hopes that China will purchase "a considerable amount" of Italian government bonds to help Italy get out of the financial crisis as soon as possible. "This needs to be highly vigilant, because Italy has already experienced insolvency, and how much investment value of such a bond needs to be carefully considered." He Qiang said. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, also believes that the impact of the Greek debt crisis on the Chinese economy is not obvious, because Greece is only a small country in European countries, and its demand for Chinese goods is not very large, but if the European debt crisis further Deterioration will have a negative impact on China’s exports. Because the EU accounts for 17% of China's exports, it is one of China's largest export destinations. "I am worried that the European debt crisis is endless. Except for heavily indebted countries such as Greece, the European debt crisis is being digested by the periphery of the Eurozone. Due to the large-scale Greek sovereign bonds, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and France The credit rating of Agricultural Credit Bank may be lowered by Moody's this week.†In the view of Liu Jingde, deputy general manager of Cinda Securities R&D Center, the euro zone will continue to have high debt and low growth. Last year, the economic growth of the euro zone was only 1%-1.5. The level of %, and the growth rate of the whole European economy in the second quarter of this year is almost zero. It is estimated that this trend will continue in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and even negative growth may occur. The EU is China's largest export market, accounting for 17% of China's trade, which will affect the export of China as a whole. The monetary policy has not turned to Pan Xiangdong. The reason for China’s monetary policy to maintain the status quo is: on the one hand, it will not further tighten, and will not raise the deposit reserve ratio and raise interest rates again in the near future; on the other hand, it will not As the market is rumored, the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium banks is lowered. Because the CPI growth rate in August is still as high as 6.2%, the inflationary pressure is still relatively large, and the effect of the monetary policy introduced in the previous period is observed, and then the camera decides. It is worth noting that since this year, Fitch has been worried about China's financial stability, saying that the quality of assets in China's banking sector in terms of platform loans, real estate loans and infrastructure construction is seriously deteriorating. At the same time, it also expressed concern about China's local government debt. Fitch also said that it may downgrade the credit rating of China's local currency bonds in the next 12 to 24 months. This may exaggerate China's financial risks, but it is estimated that management will take it seriously and will be more cautious in the funding of the banking system. He Qiang said that the CPI in August was 6.2%, which was lower than the 6.5% in July. Because of the fall in CPI, it seems that there is no possibility of further interest rate hikes in the short term; however, the decline in CPI in individual months and the continuous decline in CPI formation are two different things. In December 2010, CPI also rallied, but after January of this year, CPI showed a continuous upward trend. The fall in prices in individual months is unlikely to cause a change in the overall direction of monetary policy. "According to the historical experience of China's regulation of prices, when the CPI has just bottomed out, the tight policy cannot change immediately because the management is worried that the policy relaxation will cause a sharp rebound in prices." He Qiang said. Only when the price structure continues to fall, the tight control policy can undergo major changes. From the time when prices have peaked to the point where there has been a continuous decline, tight policies can only loosen some individual aspects. He Qiang told reporters that suppressing price increases is still the main task at present, and monetary policy will maintain the overall tightening trend in the short term. At the same time, the following strategies may be adopted in the application of monetary policy: one is to adopt a differentiated monetary policy under the condition of maintaining the overall monetary policy tightening, that is, to adopt targeted credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises that are more difficult to operate. Regarding the impact of the international economic situation on China's monetary policy, Liu Jingde believes that it is mainly depends on the domestic economic situation. The fall in CPI growth in August is a sign of inflation easing. However, the current price of meat is still running at a high level. Inflationary pressure still exists. It is impossible to determine the inflation turning point and observe the data for the next few months. The probability of turning immediately or further raising interest rates is not large, and it is expected that monetary policy will maintain the current situation.
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