The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: Due to the market's expectation of the Chinese government to raise interest rates and the appreciation of the renminbi, it triggered profit-taking in the market, causing the LME price to fall by more than 100 US dollars yesterday and rebounded late. Compared with the previous trading day, it closed down at US$3090/ton, which was a drop of US$48/ton from the previous trading day. The fluctuation ranged from US$3146.5 to US$3030 per ton. LME copper stocks fell by 325 tons to 89.875 million tons yesterday, and the continuous decline in stocks is still supporting copper prices. Yesterday, domestic copper prices fell sharply, and all contracts were closed at the stoppage price. The main reason is that there is news in the market that the renminbi has widened in the range of fluctuations in the near future and promoted the process of marketization of the exchange rate. The implementation of this measure in the current situation is very To a large extent, Bush’s call to Hu Jintao deepened the market’s expectation of the election card on Bush’s exchange rate issue before the US general election. On the other hand, today's National Development and Reform Commission’s clear remarks on the fall in commodity prices in the fourth quarter have also induced market speculations on the exchange rate issue. The market has rumors that the People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates on a certain Saturday in late-to-late October, China’s exchange rate policy and interest rates. Changes in the policy will be the key to the recent evolution of copper prices. The spot price also fell sharply yesterday, at 31,400~31,500 yuan/ton. Aluminium: Affected by profit-taking, yesterday's aluminum prices in LME also fell sharply on March. The main factor is also concerns about the RMB exchange rate. Domestically, Shanghai Aluminum was affected by the expected bad news yesterday and dropped sharply. Each contract closed at its daily limit. From the perspective of the market, aluminum prices showed a significant passive character of copper drag, holding positions continued to decline significantly, and trading volumes continued to remain moderate. In the short term, the aluminum price will show a turbulent trend. The domestic spot price quoted yesterday was 16850~16900 yuan/ton. Ma Hongqing: cu: Affected by the sharp fall in Shanghai copper, LME copper prices fluctuated sharply on Tuesday's trading. The profit-taking sell-out once swallowed up the gains on Friday, but the spot premium did not weaken with the price. The sharp decline, the squeeze contract behavior of the spot contract is still controlling the entire market, so in this regard, the sharp fall in copper prices on Tuesday can only be seen as an adjustment to the previous rise, it can not be asserted that the formation of the head. However, after a sharp turbulence on Tuesday, if the copper price can not be re-stopped on the 3150 in the short term, the copper price in the afternoon market may further decline. Technically, it indicates that the price of copper is still in a strong upward trend. It will take time to change the trend. The strong support provided by the 2980/3020 front line will curb the fall in copper prices in the short term. Only when the current price falls below 2850, can we think that the price of copper is at the top, at least in the short term. Shanghai CU CU is expected to be in the range of 29000/29500 on Wednesday. Once the price falls below 28800, it means that copper price will further test the important trading range of 28000/28500. Investors are advised to wait patiently. AL: Domestic aluminum prices fell below the sharp decline in copper prices during Tuesday's trading. However, LME aluminum prices rebounded from bottoming out in the evening trade. In the past few weeks, the size of the LME aluminum market has appeared. The huge Masukura situation has brought difficulties to the further rise in the futures price in the short term, but the increase in the spot premium implies that the probability of aluminum prices falling sharply will be less. Technically, the aluminum price in the indicative period will be less likely to break through 1850 in the short-term, and aluminum prices need to fully accumulate in the 1800/1850 region before re-raising. Shanghai AL AL501 is expected to remain within the range of 17,000/17200 on Wednesday, with further support at 16800. We recommend investors to follow up on the 16900 first-line covering Tuesday's closing position or when the current price breaks above 17300. Daily commentary: He Haihai: Three-month copper fell on a quiet trading session on Monday. The profit-taking copper fell from a 16-year high. Today is also the day before the LME held its annual meeting this week. The three-month copper afternoon The second-round trade closed at 3,121/25 US dollars per tonne, lower than the last night's composite trading price of 3,145, the spot price reported 3,275 U.S. dollars, down 2 U.S. dollars; spot price/three-month premium (backward price difference), 154 U.S. dollars, down 4 US dollars, but the tight supply situation remains. The tight supply of cash on the spot side is obviously a great support for futures prices. Today, Shanghai Copper has a full range of low limit. After a certain oscillation in the beginning of the session, the price dropped rapidly after 9:50, and stopped after 10 minutes. The Foreign Economic Times reported on October 11 that U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said that China has agreed to consider adopting a more flexible exchange rate policy as a trading partner of the United States. This is crucial. Snow pointed out that currency is a key factor in global trade. The United States hopes that China will stop the peg against the US dollar policy. China is considering this plan and the United States will continue to closely monitor its movement. From this point of view, domestic copper has a potentially big negative factor. In addition, there are also reports by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences that the appreciation of the renminbi will be of great benefit to China's purchase of oil. Inventory, continued to decline, October 11 LME inventory reported 90,200 metric tons, down 1,800 metric tons, COMEX stocks reported 46,195 short tons, down 690 short tons. Since the declining situation of stocks still continues, it is obviously supportive of prices. According to Goldman Sachs, the cost of crude oil should have risen to 35 U.S. dollars, which provides support for the gains. The trend of crude oil had a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and the US dollar was slightly lower yesterday. The weakness of the dollar has been supporting the bull market in the metal market and will continue in the later period. Technically, London Copper finished lower, closing the small Yangxian, showing that the price encountered certain resistance, and therefore there is a slight adjustment requirement in the short-term, but the price pattern is obviously strong. Operational advice: continue to wait and see overseas express delivery: LME market report: London October 11 news: Speculation by speculators selling pressure, the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal prices all closed lower. Market rumors that the possibility of a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi gradually increased, Asian trading hours funds adjusted their positions, and a large number of sell-offs emerged. At the same time, after a week-long increase, the long-term liquidation was profitable, and the high sell-off pressure also suppressed the price. However, the fundamental factors such as tight supply still exist, so that the price of copper and aluminum will be well supported at low levels. The benchmark three-month copper price fell 1.4% to close at US$3,093, which was a day low of US$3,030. The spot/three-month copper premium fell from $160 last week to $153. The three-month benchmark aluminum price fell 1.4% to end at $1,829, a day lower of $1,807.50. The spot/three-month aluminum premium rose from US$20 on the 11th to US$34.50. The benchmark three-month nickel price also closed lower, but received better support at $15,800. The benchmark zinc price fell by 2.7% in three months, and the resistance was higher at $1,180. COMEX Copper Market Report: New York, October 12 News: Copper fell on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) on Tuesday. December copper prices fell 2.05 cents to close at 144.80 cents. It was 142.30 cents lower and 146.90 cents higher throughout the day. Market rumors, some traders said that the Chinese central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate, while the possibility of RMB appreciation gradually increases. The above factors triggered the profit-seeking selling of funds. Analysts believe that due to the continuous decline in inventories and the recent weakening of the US dollar triggering fund buying, pushing copper prices continue to rise for a week, the current fund profitable, the market is facing adjustment pressures in the short term. December copper futures are expected to support 142.30 cents and 141.95 cents. On the 12th, LME copper stocks fell by 325 metric tons to 89,875 metric tons. On the 11th, COMEX copper stocks fell by 690 short tons to 46,195 short tons.
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