1. Analysis of factors affecting the industry trend in 2010
(1) From the perspective of macroeconomic environment, GDP will maintain relatively rapid growth in 2010. 2010 is the year of completion of the 11th Five-Year Plan. The 17th National Congress has outlined a grand blueprint for the 12th Five-Year Plan. In this context, the whole country is full of enthusiasm for development. According to this estimation, the economic growth rate in 2010 will not be too low, GDP growth is expected to increase from about 8% in 2009, and will be close to 10%, of which the growth rate of the secondary industry's added value will be above 13%.
Maintaining the continuity and stability of the policy will be the keynote of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control work. On the basis of the remarkable results achieved by macroeconomic regulation and control in 2008, the macroeconomic situation continued to develop towards the target in 2009, and the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control became more and more obvious. Overall judgment, the macro-China metal processing online copyright economy operation has been in a period of steady growth. This great situation is hard-won. It is necessary to prevent further decline and prevent excessive investment. The key point is to prevent short-term behavior of investment from becoming an economic situation. The mainstream view of understanding. It is expected that maintaining the continuity and stability of the policy will be the keynote of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control work in 2010.
In 2010, the growth of fixed asset investment in the whole society will slow down slowly, and the growth rate will drop from 22.9% in 2009 to around 20%. Under the leadership of new development ideas such as scientific development and transformation of economic growth mode, the development mode that relies too much on investment-led is under control. At present, overcapacity in some industries is serious, and the excessive investment in fixed assets in some areas has been suppressed.
Due to the slowdown in export growth, the international trade surplus has fallen sharply, trade friction has also increased, and the appreciation of the renminbi, the export growth is expected to slow down in 2009; on the other hand, as the country will adjust the export tax rebate policy, this will make the export enterprises actually The increase in tax rebates has been obtained, which is conducive to enterprises to expand exports. It is estimated that the national foreign trade import and export growth in 2010 will be around 12% and 14% respectively.
(2) From the perspective of the operating environment of the machinery industry, the “Revitalization Plan of the State Council on Equipment Manufacturing Industry†has been introduced, which will create a favorable environment for the development of the machinery industry. The "Revitalization Plan" is characterized by clear objectives and strong orientation; it is focused and easy to focus; measures China Metal Processing Online is copyright-specific, with gold content; organization implementation, which is conducive to coordination. At present, the domestic demand market is stabilizing, and corporate orders are expected to pick up; steel prices are being suppressed, and the pressure on the cost increase of the machinery industry in 2010 has risen; the contradiction between power supply and demand has eased, supply is expected to be better than in previous years; international crude oil prices rebound, The supply and demand of domestic refined oil products is tightening; the international industrial transfer development is slowing down, but the space for undertaking transfer is still very large.
2. Industry development speed forecast in 2009
The data of 2009 is still in the statistics so far, but through the above analysis, in 2009, both the macroeconomic environment and the operating environment of the machinery industry itself are relatively stressful. It is expected that the production and sales of the machinery industry will reach an increase of about 12% in 2009, but the difficulty of increasing the efficiency of the industry is greater than the production and sales, which is estimated to be only about 5%.
3. Forecast of the development trend of the main sub-sectors of the machinery industry in 2010
In the overall stable development situation, the trends of the major sub-sectors are not the same. The basic trend will continue in the second half of 2009: the growth rate of major technical equipment and agricultural equipment manufacturing such as power equipment, heavy mining equipment and petrochemical equipment will still be higher than the industry average; automobiles, engineering machinery, basic parts, internal combustion engines The growth rate of China Metalworking Online Copyright will be lower than the industry average, and the growth rate of the machine tool industry will drop from the previous industry average to the industry average.
For the machine tool industry, with the decline in investment peaks of major users such as automobiles, motorcycles and heavy electricians, the operating speed of the machine tool industry will continue to fall, with an estimated 10% in 2010.
For the general machinery manufacturing industry, the general machinery manufacturing industry, which is represented by fans, compressors, air separation equipment, pumps, valves, etc., is driven by the supporting demand of electrician, heavy mining machinery and petrochemical equipment manufacturing industry. It is expected to be realized in 2010. 15% to 20% growth.
For the automotive industry, it is expected that the automotive industry will show a steady development trend in 2010. The energy-saving products in passenger cars are favored, and the proportion of small-displacement vehicles in production and sales is rising. The overall operation of the motorcycle industry is tightening, and the difficulty of benefit growth is much greater than Production and sales, the overall expected growth rate is around 14%.
For the agricultural machinery industry, the central and local financial subsidies for farmers to purchase agricultural machinery will continue to increase in 2009, while continuing to take measures to reduce the burden on farmers, so the agricultural machinery production and sales situation is expected to continue to improve, and the growth rate is expected to be around 17%.
For other industries in 2010, the growth rate forecast is about 12% for parts and components, 9% to 11% for refrigeration and air-conditioning machinery manufacturing, 8% to 10% for mold manufacturing, and about 18% for environmentally friendly machinery manufacturing. About 8% of the manufacturing industry, about 15% of the food and packaging machinery manufacturing industry, 10% to 15% of the hydraulic, pneumatic and seal manufacturing industry, about 10% of the printing machinery manufacturing industry, 8% to 10% of the bearing industry, and 5% of the internal combustion engine industry. ~8%, about 11% of construction machinery manufacturing.
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