Experts: Group prices are not as good as differential gas prices

In late April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting the Price of Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation. The price of natural gas pipelines that implement the national uniform tariff was increased by 0.08 yuan per cubic meter. On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a report on improving domestic production. The notification of the on-site natural gas ex-factory price (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”) raised the base price of each oil and gas field (or first station) by 230 yuan per 1,000 cubic meters, which is an important step in the reform of natural gas prices. As a result, in June and July, local governments all focused on increasing the price of natural gas for vehicles and non-civilian (non-vehicle) natural gas. In August and September, local governments once again convened or prepared to hold hearings to raise the price of natural gas. The natural gas price has been raised to enter the lives of the people.

Judging from the situation in the current round of price adjustments, the price of natural gas for vehicle use has increased by the largest margin, generally increasing by 0.4-0.7 yuan per cubic meter in absolute terms, up to more than 1 yuan in individual regions, and the relative amount is above 15%; non-civilian gas (excluding Vehicle use) to increase the center, generally increase the absolute amount of 0.3-0.6 yuan per cubic meter, up to nearly 1 yuan in individual areas, the relative amount of about 15%; civil gas prices increase the lowest, the general increase in the absolute amount of 0.25 yuan per cubic meter In some regions, it is above 0.4 yuan and the relative amount is around 10%-15%.

When natural gas is sold to customers who are not directly supplied, the difference between supply and sales will increase, and tax factors will have to be taken into consideration. If natural gas is sold at the base price before and after ex-factory price adjustment, the normal range of price adjustment for terminal sales is between 0.27-0.37 yuan per cubic meter. For implementation of the national "new line new price" pipeline transmission, press the limit adjustment price, and the factory benchmark price of 0.23 yuan on May 3 can be surrendered. The price adjustment higher than 0.27 yuan is other considerations; the implementation of the national unified tariff The gas delivered by the “old” pipeline is adjusted according to the upper limit, and the ex-factory price can be basically adjusted upwards. By this measure, the current round of price adjustment, from the perspective of civil gas, can basically increase the ex-factory price; and overall, local gas companies and local pipeline operators should profit from the ex-factory benchmark price increase.

The concentration of price adjustments throughout the current round also reflects that natural gas supply will continue to tighten market expectations. The “notice” allows the floating rate of the factory benchmark price to float by 10%, and is not subject to fluctuations. From the perspective of natural gas producers on the prices of direct supply users and various gas companies, the downstream users have little resistance to price increases. In particular, the apparently high prices of natural gas from Sichuan to East China Gas are accepted by users, indicating that there is a gap in total market demand. , And there are high-end users. Winter is the peak of heating, and it has always been the peak season for natural gas consumption. If the price adjustment is postponed until November, the pressure will be greater. The looters will raise their gas prices in place during the “window” period before the peak of winter gas usage. They can also set aside a certain margin for the situation of competition and price increase in various regions when signing a supplementary gas purchase agreement next year. This is also the reason that the price increase rate for this time around is relatively larger than the factory benchmark price increase.

Beijing, Hubei, and other regions have already established a linkage mechanism for the adjustment of upstream and downstream prices of natural gas through the hearing process. If the civilian gas component only passes upstream gas prices, it will not need to go through the hearing process. Civilian gas prices in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei have quickly been adjusted, while Beijing still has a wait-and-see period. In Jiangsu and Hebei, after mid-August, they introduced the province's natural gas price management measures, both of which contain linkage mechanisms for upstream and downstream price adjustments of natural gas, so that in the province’s various regions, when the civil gas price adjustment hearings in the current round, the unified standard The method involves a joint hearing of upstream and downstream price adjustments. The establishment and practice of these linkage mechanisms will pave the way for the resolution of natural gas price adjustments in the future, and will take an important step towards the next step in the marketization of natural gas ex-factory prices. In the absence of these mechanisms, gas companies and local governments, among others, have become an important force opposing the upward adjustment of gas prices.

At the same time, it should also be noted that as China's natural gas industry chain is still in a stage of rapid development, and it will take another 10 years or so, coupled with huge environmental pressures such as carbon emissions reduction, it is of strategic significance that natural gas prices maintain a certain price advantage over alternative energy prices. At the same time, large-scale urban air consumption has led to peaking problems. Under the condition of severely inadequate peak-sharing facilities and peak-shaving capacity in the whole industry chain, there is an urgent need to establish incentive mechanisms that are conducive to the issue of demodulating peaks, such as encouraging large amounts of interruptions and conversions. The formation of users encouraged civilian gas conservation and peak usage. However, in this round of price adjustment, there is no indication that the differential gas price policies such as the seasonal differential price of natural gas, peak-to-valley price difference and gas price interruption can be accelerated. In addition, the long-standing problems are also caused by the Chinese characteristics where civil gas prices are slightly adjusted relative to non-civil gas prices.