As the world’s top two sources of energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) made two very different predictions about the future demand for crude oil and coal. On December 13, according to foreign media reports, compared with previous estimates, the IEA lowered the average global crude oil demand in 2011 and 2012 by 200,000 barrels per day, to 89 million barrels and 90.3 million barrels; on the other hand, For the next five years, the IEA has remained optimistic about the demand for coal.
However, in the IEA's forecast report on crude oil and coal, they all mentioned the important factor of “China's future demandâ€. At present, China is the second largest energy consumer after the United States.
Crude Oil: Downgrading Demand As an intergovernmental organization set up to deal with the energy crisis of the 1970s, the IEA's influence on the global crude oil market has become more pronounced in recent years. At the same time, the IEA also has more authoritative forecasts on future crude oil demand.
Since the beginning of this year, IEA has continuously lowered its crude oil forecast for next year and the following year. In May of this year, the IEA lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2011; in October and November, the IEA continued to state that global oil demand will “below expectations†in 2011 and 2012, due to “economic activity. Slowing down" and "inhibition of high oil prices on consumption."
Yesterday, the IEA lowered the estimated value of crude oil demand for the current year and the next year again. The reason was that it was "affected by European debt and the economic weakness in the fourth quarter." The IEA stressed that the global demand for OPEC crude oil in 2012 will reach 30.2 million barrels per day, a decrease of 300,000 barrels per day compared to previous estimates.
Lin Boqiang, an energy expert, said that the IEA's forecast report is of an early-warning nature because at present, global crude oil demand will not really slow down significantly. In particular, the declining demand for crude oil in the United States, the world’s largest energy consumer, can be fully digested by emerging economies such as China and India.
Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, publicly stated that “China’s thirst for energy will continue to keep crude oil demand strong.†According to the latest data from China Customs, from January to November, China’s cumulative import of crude oil was 213.86 million tons, which was an increase over the same period of last year. 6.1%; November imports of 22.69 million tons of crude oil in a single month, an increase of 9.1%.
Coal: The price is willing to watch low crude oil demand, but IEA is optimistic about the demand and price of coal. According to the British "Financial Times" report, IEA stated in the "2011 Medium Term Market Report" that "despite the public's call for reducing the dependence on high-carbon fuels as a primary energy source, the consumption of coal will continue to increase in the next five years. ."
However, the IEA predicts that the growth rate of coal consumption will slow down from the high growth from 2000 to 2010 in the next five years. IEA Director-General Van Der Hoven said that in the next five years, coal demand will increase by an average of 600,000 tons per day.
For the price, IEA stated that the price of thermal coal in Asia will increase from 127 US$/ton in 2011 to 138 US$/ton in 2016. The "Financial Times" stated that this would be much higher than the price of $40/ton to $80/ton at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2008, coal prices hit a record high of more than US$200/ton.
For China's coal demand, the IEA has seen two more extreme judgments: China's coal net imports before 2016 are "either from 92 million tons in 2010 to 180 million tons, or to 39 million tons."
However, according to energy experts, IEA's disagreement on China's coal demand is equally understandable. Because China had promised to achieve a 45% reduction in its carbon emissions target by 2020 compared with 2005. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, China still cannot rely on coal, an important petrochemical energy source. Chen Qi, director of the Industrial Coordination Department of the China Coal Industry Association, predicted that the nation’s coal supply in 2011 will increase by about 300 million tons from 2010, and that the net coal imports in 2011 will continue to remain high.
However, in the IEA's forecast report on crude oil and coal, they all mentioned the important factor of “China's future demandâ€. At present, China is the second largest energy consumer after the United States.
Crude Oil: Downgrading Demand As an intergovernmental organization set up to deal with the energy crisis of the 1970s, the IEA's influence on the global crude oil market has become more pronounced in recent years. At the same time, the IEA also has more authoritative forecasts on future crude oil demand.
Since the beginning of this year, IEA has continuously lowered its crude oil forecast for next year and the following year. In May of this year, the IEA lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2011; in October and November, the IEA continued to state that global oil demand will “below expectations†in 2011 and 2012, due to “economic activity. Slowing down" and "inhibition of high oil prices on consumption."
Yesterday, the IEA lowered the estimated value of crude oil demand for the current year and the next year again. The reason was that it was "affected by European debt and the economic weakness in the fourth quarter." The IEA stressed that the global demand for OPEC crude oil in 2012 will reach 30.2 million barrels per day, a decrease of 300,000 barrels per day compared to previous estimates.
Lin Boqiang, an energy expert, said that the IEA's forecast report is of an early-warning nature because at present, global crude oil demand will not really slow down significantly. In particular, the declining demand for crude oil in the United States, the world’s largest energy consumer, can be fully digested by emerging economies such as China and India.
Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, publicly stated that “China’s thirst for energy will continue to keep crude oil demand strong.†According to the latest data from China Customs, from January to November, China’s cumulative import of crude oil was 213.86 million tons, which was an increase over the same period of last year. 6.1%; November imports of 22.69 million tons of crude oil in a single month, an increase of 9.1%.
Coal: The price is willing to watch low crude oil demand, but IEA is optimistic about the demand and price of coal. According to the British "Financial Times" report, IEA stated in the "2011 Medium Term Market Report" that "despite the public's call for reducing the dependence on high-carbon fuels as a primary energy source, the consumption of coal will continue to increase in the next five years. ."
However, the IEA predicts that the growth rate of coal consumption will slow down from the high growth from 2000 to 2010 in the next five years. IEA Director-General Van Der Hoven said that in the next five years, coal demand will increase by an average of 600,000 tons per day.
For the price, IEA stated that the price of thermal coal in Asia will increase from 127 US$/ton in 2011 to 138 US$/ton in 2016. The "Financial Times" stated that this would be much higher than the price of $40/ton to $80/ton at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2008, coal prices hit a record high of more than US$200/ton.
For China's coal demand, the IEA has seen two more extreme judgments: China's coal net imports before 2016 are "either from 92 million tons in 2010 to 180 million tons, or to 39 million tons."
However, according to energy experts, IEA's disagreement on China's coal demand is equally understandable. Because China had promised to achieve a 45% reduction in its carbon emissions target by 2020 compared with 2005. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, China still cannot rely on coal, an important petrochemical energy source. Chen Qi, director of the Industrial Coordination Department of the China Coal Industry Association, predicted that the nation’s coal supply in 2011 will increase by about 300 million tons from 2010, and that the net coal imports in 2011 will continue to remain high.
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