Since October, news of the cement industry has continued. The State Council issued the "Guidance Opinions on Supporting Henan Province in Speeding up the Construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone" and the "10 Measures" to Support the Construction of Xinjiang's Two Major Economic Zones, and then "The Future of Safeguarding Housing Construction Has Been Unabated," and the Ministry of Railways' recent tendering and issuance The 20 billion yuan of China Railway Construction Bonds for the second period in 2011 marked the resumption of construction of the stagnant railway construction project. All sorts of good news will promote the development of the cement industry in the fourth quarter. However, industry insiders are also worried that under the influence of factors such as the unstable global economic environment, slowdown in domestic fixed asset investment, and excessively increased new cement production capacity, there may be a problem of “poor season†in the fourth quarter.
This year's market conditions are not "prosperous in the busy season," but are two reasons: First, because most of the people this year demand too much from the cement market, they have the intention of "scalping fast cows"; second, they are caused by excessive new production capacity. . The period from 2010 to 2012 is the peak period of China's cement production capacity release, and the market pressure has increased. The pressure of this release of production capacity and the continued negative news on the economic front have been enlarged in the market, and the active and effective measures adopted by the industry to respond to market changes have been Misinterpretation.
According to the latest data, the monthly production data from January to September 2011 are still in the normal operation orbit. The performance of cement prices and profit indicators has increased significantly compared with previous years, especially in East China beyond the expectations of all parties.
The regional market price appeared to split in the last week of October, the national high standard cement P. The market price of O42.5 rose 0.1% to 401 yuan/ton. Among them, Shanghai cement prices rose by 30 yuan/ton, and Guiyang prices dropped by 10 to 40 yuan/ton.
Specifically, the Shanghai cement market price recovery is raised by RMB 30/t, which was mainly boosted by the increase in cement prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The cement price in Guiyang continued to fall sharply. The low price was lowered by RMB 40/ton, and the high price was lowered by RMB 30/ton. The reasons for the price reduction are the same as those in the previous period. After the recovery of production capacity, the contradiction between market supply and demand exceeds the demand. In addition, the vicious competition among public companies cannot be changed in the short term.
In the same period, cement prices in other regions were mainly stable. The price of clinker dropped again in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the price was in place at 300-330 yuan/ton. The prices of cement in major cities, Nanning and Guangzhou, remained stable. The price of some regions such as Yulin and Chongzuo in Guangxi Province fell by RMB 20-30/t (previous price rose by RMB 400/t in the previous period). However, at the same time, the cement prices in various regions in Yunnan have recently become different. The maximum price difference of C32.5 cement reached 130 yuan/ton.
In fact, at the end of October, the price of cement in Yunnan Province has already clearly differentiated. Relevant data show that Kunming and Qujing have the lowest price of cement in the surrounding areas, and the price of cement in the Weibei area is relatively low. The cement price in the west of Qianxi is the highest. The industry believes that Yunnan cement has appeared surplus, and the region with low cement prices has been mainly affected by vicious competition in excess capacity. At the same time, the country’s investment in infrastructure projects has contracted, and the sharp drop in cement demand is also one of the reasons for the low cement prices. Take Shanghai-Kunming high-speed rail as an example, the road section in Yunnan has actually stopped construction for more than six months. The higher cement prices in the western Yunnan region were mainly due to the reasonable production capacity of local cement and the stable demand for civil cement.
The new production capacity surged due to power restrictions last year, the market "retaliation" rebounded. Under the guidance of large enterprises in East China, cement prices have risen sharply, and the value of cement has returned. The national price this year is at a historically high level. Also in the same year last year, new production capacity surged, with more than 200 new clinker production lines. The newly added clinker capacity was designed at a capacity of 250 million tons. It is estimated that 450 million tons of cement capacity will be formed and this will gradually come into play this year. In 2011, the third year of the 4 trillion yuan investment, the strong demand is nearing completion.
In the first half of this year, cement has performed well both in the industrial market and in the capital market. It can also be said that it has exceeded expectations. However, after May, the pressure on the market gradually emerged, and it was even more pronounced in July and August. The party that sang “empty†showed great strength.
According to statistics, cement demand continued to be high in September, with a monthly cement output of 190 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and an increase of 4.2% from the previous period, mainly due to the continued high investment in fixed assets, and the accumulative investment growth rate reached 24.9%. The effect of stopping the kiln in the East China market continued to push up the price in the Shanghai region, and the main driving force for the increase was still the inventory decline in the previous period and the demand chain recovered slightly.
At present, the cement industry's three quarterly reports have been announced one after another. Except for the Ningxia and Gansu regions in the northwest, the performance continues to grow at a high rate, basically in line with expectations. The cumulative production of cement in the first three quarters reached 1.513 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%. From the statistics of each month of statistics, basically consistent with the previous production track, in accordance with the law of the month, can basically estimate the cement production from October to December, the annual cement production is approximately 2.1 billion tons. Among them, cement production in East China is still at the top of the country, South China and South Africa are the second, and the proportion of cement production in the northeast, southwest, and northwest China has further increased.
The first seven large-producing provinces will continue to produce more than 100 million tons of output each year, accounting for 50% of the country's total output: Shandong and Sichuan are likely to challenge 150 million tons, and Shandong has had an annual output of 160 million tons, as of September. In the accumulated data, Shandong only leads Sichuan with an advantage of less than 2 million tons, and its output is at the top, but it is difficult to maintain until the end of the year; Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui have output of 55 million to 61 million tons in the same period last year. Have leap forward.
From the change of growth rate, we can see the performance of the market, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi have topped the list, but the price cannot rise. The reason is that new production capacity is forced to enter the market, but the output has not been converted into sales. This led to an increase in inventory and lower prices.
According to industry insiders, the prices of the eastern market in the fourth quarter were stable, but the macro and monetary levels were uncertain, making the industry demand and performance expectations still face pressure in 2012.
The slowdown in demand showed that the three quarterly reports of 21 listed companies in the cement manufacturing industry showed that the cumulative operating revenue in the first three quarters increased by 47.7% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by 134% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rates of 50.8% and 157% respectively in the first half of the year. slow.
Cement is a regional product, the price depends on the relationship between supply and demand, market demand is still good this year. The market began to warm in March, especially in the second quarter, with strong demand. In May and June, the monthly cement output exceeded 190 million tons, almost equal to 200 million tons. Under this background, the price of cement can “sitâ€.
At the same time, the pressure on market supply this year is very large. The sum of the growth in market demand and the phasing out of production capacity is at most 300 million tons. This year's new cement production capacity is 450 million tons, which greatly exceeds the market capacity. In the face of capital tightening, slowing market demand, and the release of new production capacity, under the background of the national economic environment, the adoption of energy-saving emission reduction and limited production insured price is undoubtedly the current market strategy.
Chen Bairu, an analyst at Donghai Securities, said: “From the perspective of the three quarterly reports, the entire industry’s annual profitability is much better than last year. Many companies’ third quarter reports are better than we had expected. Due to the contribution of the second quarter, the annual report will still look very good. However, from the perspective of the company's operations, future growth will not be as fast as this year."
As a result of the continued credit crunch, downstream companies face very high cash pressure and start delaying payments. In the third quarter, the overall turnover rate of accounts receivable in the cement industry was 14.15, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72 times. The inventory turnover rate of the cement industry was 1.93, down 0.3 times year-on-year. “The demand for cement still needs capital to drive, and the investment in housing, highways, railways, and water conservancy is not ideal, and the demand for cement will have a greater impact,†said Chen Bairu.
The China Cement Industry Research Report issued by UBS Securities in late October stated that in the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, China’s cement demand may be lower than expected, and cement prices will remain resilient in the next three years. In the short term, the pressure on the cement industry remains, but its long-term prospects remain optimistic.
Still in a good stage of development As of October 27, cement companies listed on the A-shares have announced 16 companies in the third quarter of 2011, and another company announced the third quarter results forecast, so far cement A-share listed companies 2011 The annual performance can be said to have begun to appear.
Of the 17 listed companies announced, 12 have achieved growth, and most of them have seen a substantial increase. The net profits of the five companies have dropped year-on-year. Of these five companies, two have remained profitable. However, due to the profit rate last year, At a high level and under the pressure of the release of new capacity in the region, this year saw a decline. In addition to the loss of three other companies, there are also specific reasons for the company itself.
Cement listed companies are a window for the industry. First, we can say that the performance of the A-share cement sector is better than that of the A-share market, and the performance growth is also better than the broader market, indicating that the cement industry is still at a good stage of development. Second, the pressure of overcapacity can not be ignored, but as the ability of large groups to control the market continues to increase, through the hard work of enterprises can still obtain substantial returns. Conch Cement and other cement companies in the context of this year's economic adjustment, the third quarter The net profit has grown by more than 100%. This is the cement industry, and it can even be said to be a beautiful landscape of the industry in the country. Third, with the stabilization of the economy in the fourth quarter and the advent of the traditional cement season, 2011 is a golden period for the cement industry. Fourth, the performance contrast of different companies in listed companies reflects the polarization between different companies in different regions of the cement industry and deserves the attention of people in the industry.
This year's cement prices have risen sharply from the previous years and reached a peak in May, followed by a drop in market prices due to seasonal factors. In 2011, half of the year has already passed, but it can be said that this year is a good harvest for the cement industry.
With regard to future market expectations, with the development of the market, the previous years have been deeply troubled by the market, and the kinetic energy for the release of large-scale, low-cost, high-capacity production capacity has been inhibited. This is the most important force for maintaining the healthy growth of the market. The fourth quarter is the golden season of the cement industry. There are conditions and basis for price increase, and the market has no reason to decline.
This year's market conditions are not "prosperous in the busy season," but are two reasons: First, because most of the people this year demand too much from the cement market, they have the intention of "scalping fast cows"; second, they are caused by excessive new production capacity. . The period from 2010 to 2012 is the peak period of China's cement production capacity release, and the market pressure has increased. The pressure of this release of production capacity and the continued negative news on the economic front have been enlarged in the market, and the active and effective measures adopted by the industry to respond to market changes have been Misinterpretation.
According to the latest data, the monthly production data from January to September 2011 are still in the normal operation orbit. The performance of cement prices and profit indicators has increased significantly compared with previous years, especially in East China beyond the expectations of all parties.
The regional market price appeared to split in the last week of October, the national high standard cement P. The market price of O42.5 rose 0.1% to 401 yuan/ton. Among them, Shanghai cement prices rose by 30 yuan/ton, and Guiyang prices dropped by 10 to 40 yuan/ton.
Specifically, the Shanghai cement market price recovery is raised by RMB 30/t, which was mainly boosted by the increase in cement prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The cement price in Guiyang continued to fall sharply. The low price was lowered by RMB 40/ton, and the high price was lowered by RMB 30/ton. The reasons for the price reduction are the same as those in the previous period. After the recovery of production capacity, the contradiction between market supply and demand exceeds the demand. In addition, the vicious competition among public companies cannot be changed in the short term.
In the same period, cement prices in other regions were mainly stable. The price of clinker dropped again in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the price was in place at 300-330 yuan/ton. The prices of cement in major cities, Nanning and Guangzhou, remained stable. The price of some regions such as Yulin and Chongzuo in Guangxi Province fell by RMB 20-30/t (previous price rose by RMB 400/t in the previous period). However, at the same time, the cement prices in various regions in Yunnan have recently become different. The maximum price difference of C32.5 cement reached 130 yuan/ton.
In fact, at the end of October, the price of cement in Yunnan Province has already clearly differentiated. Relevant data show that Kunming and Qujing have the lowest price of cement in the surrounding areas, and the price of cement in the Weibei area is relatively low. The cement price in the west of Qianxi is the highest. The industry believes that Yunnan cement has appeared surplus, and the region with low cement prices has been mainly affected by vicious competition in excess capacity. At the same time, the country’s investment in infrastructure projects has contracted, and the sharp drop in cement demand is also one of the reasons for the low cement prices. Take Shanghai-Kunming high-speed rail as an example, the road section in Yunnan has actually stopped construction for more than six months. The higher cement prices in the western Yunnan region were mainly due to the reasonable production capacity of local cement and the stable demand for civil cement.
The new production capacity surged due to power restrictions last year, the market "retaliation" rebounded. Under the guidance of large enterprises in East China, cement prices have risen sharply, and the value of cement has returned. The national price this year is at a historically high level. Also in the same year last year, new production capacity surged, with more than 200 new clinker production lines. The newly added clinker capacity was designed at a capacity of 250 million tons. It is estimated that 450 million tons of cement capacity will be formed and this will gradually come into play this year. In 2011, the third year of the 4 trillion yuan investment, the strong demand is nearing completion.
In the first half of this year, cement has performed well both in the industrial market and in the capital market. It can also be said that it has exceeded expectations. However, after May, the pressure on the market gradually emerged, and it was even more pronounced in July and August. The party that sang “empty†showed great strength.
According to statistics, cement demand continued to be high in September, with a monthly cement output of 190 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and an increase of 4.2% from the previous period, mainly due to the continued high investment in fixed assets, and the accumulative investment growth rate reached 24.9%. The effect of stopping the kiln in the East China market continued to push up the price in the Shanghai region, and the main driving force for the increase was still the inventory decline in the previous period and the demand chain recovered slightly.
At present, the cement industry's three quarterly reports have been announced one after another. Except for the Ningxia and Gansu regions in the northwest, the performance continues to grow at a high rate, basically in line with expectations. The cumulative production of cement in the first three quarters reached 1.513 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%. From the statistics of each month of statistics, basically consistent with the previous production track, in accordance with the law of the month, can basically estimate the cement production from October to December, the annual cement production is approximately 2.1 billion tons. Among them, cement production in East China is still at the top of the country, South China and South Africa are the second, and the proportion of cement production in the northeast, southwest, and northwest China has further increased.
The first seven large-producing provinces will continue to produce more than 100 million tons of output each year, accounting for 50% of the country's total output: Shandong and Sichuan are likely to challenge 150 million tons, and Shandong has had an annual output of 160 million tons, as of September. In the accumulated data, Shandong only leads Sichuan with an advantage of less than 2 million tons, and its output is at the top, but it is difficult to maintain until the end of the year; Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui have output of 55 million to 61 million tons in the same period last year. Have leap forward.
From the change of growth rate, we can see the performance of the market, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi have topped the list, but the price cannot rise. The reason is that new production capacity is forced to enter the market, but the output has not been converted into sales. This led to an increase in inventory and lower prices.
According to industry insiders, the prices of the eastern market in the fourth quarter were stable, but the macro and monetary levels were uncertain, making the industry demand and performance expectations still face pressure in 2012.
The slowdown in demand showed that the three quarterly reports of 21 listed companies in the cement manufacturing industry showed that the cumulative operating revenue in the first three quarters increased by 47.7% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by 134% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rates of 50.8% and 157% respectively in the first half of the year. slow.
Cement is a regional product, the price depends on the relationship between supply and demand, market demand is still good this year. The market began to warm in March, especially in the second quarter, with strong demand. In May and June, the monthly cement output exceeded 190 million tons, almost equal to 200 million tons. Under this background, the price of cement can “sitâ€.
At the same time, the pressure on market supply this year is very large. The sum of the growth in market demand and the phasing out of production capacity is at most 300 million tons. This year's new cement production capacity is 450 million tons, which greatly exceeds the market capacity. In the face of capital tightening, slowing market demand, and the release of new production capacity, under the background of the national economic environment, the adoption of energy-saving emission reduction and limited production insured price is undoubtedly the current market strategy.
Chen Bairu, an analyst at Donghai Securities, said: “From the perspective of the three quarterly reports, the entire industry’s annual profitability is much better than last year. Many companies’ third quarter reports are better than we had expected. Due to the contribution of the second quarter, the annual report will still look very good. However, from the perspective of the company's operations, future growth will not be as fast as this year."
As a result of the continued credit crunch, downstream companies face very high cash pressure and start delaying payments. In the third quarter, the overall turnover rate of accounts receivable in the cement industry was 14.15, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72 times. The inventory turnover rate of the cement industry was 1.93, down 0.3 times year-on-year. “The demand for cement still needs capital to drive, and the investment in housing, highways, railways, and water conservancy is not ideal, and the demand for cement will have a greater impact,†said Chen Bairu.
The China Cement Industry Research Report issued by UBS Securities in late October stated that in the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, China’s cement demand may be lower than expected, and cement prices will remain resilient in the next three years. In the short term, the pressure on the cement industry remains, but its long-term prospects remain optimistic.
Still in a good stage of development As of October 27, cement companies listed on the A-shares have announced 16 companies in the third quarter of 2011, and another company announced the third quarter results forecast, so far cement A-share listed companies 2011 The annual performance can be said to have begun to appear.
Of the 17 listed companies announced, 12 have achieved growth, and most of them have seen a substantial increase. The net profits of the five companies have dropped year-on-year. Of these five companies, two have remained profitable. However, due to the profit rate last year, At a high level and under the pressure of the release of new capacity in the region, this year saw a decline. In addition to the loss of three other companies, there are also specific reasons for the company itself.
Cement listed companies are a window for the industry. First, we can say that the performance of the A-share cement sector is better than that of the A-share market, and the performance growth is also better than the broader market, indicating that the cement industry is still at a good stage of development. Second, the pressure of overcapacity can not be ignored, but as the ability of large groups to control the market continues to increase, through the hard work of enterprises can still obtain substantial returns. Conch Cement and other cement companies in the context of this year's economic adjustment, the third quarter The net profit has grown by more than 100%. This is the cement industry, and it can even be said to be a beautiful landscape of the industry in the country. Third, with the stabilization of the economy in the fourth quarter and the advent of the traditional cement season, 2011 is a golden period for the cement industry. Fourth, the performance contrast of different companies in listed companies reflects the polarization between different companies in different regions of the cement industry and deserves the attention of people in the industry.
This year's cement prices have risen sharply from the previous years and reached a peak in May, followed by a drop in market prices due to seasonal factors. In 2011, half of the year has already passed, but it can be said that this year is a good harvest for the cement industry.
With regard to future market expectations, with the development of the market, the previous years have been deeply troubled by the market, and the kinetic energy for the release of large-scale, low-cost, high-capacity production capacity has been inhibited. This is the most important force for maintaining the healthy growth of the market. The fourth quarter is the golden season of the cement industry. There are conditions and basis for price increase, and the market has no reason to decline.
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