China is a big energy consumer and the fastest growing energy consumer in the world. Experts predict China's domestic energy gap: more than 100 million tons of standard coal in the early 21st century, about 250 million tons of standard coal in 2030,
China is a big energy consumer and the fastest growing energy consumer in the world. Experts predict China's domestic energy gap: more than 100 million tons of standard coal in the early 21st century, about 250 million tons of standard coal in 2030, and about 460 million tons of standard coal by 2050. Adjusting and optimizing the energy structure, developing new energy and its conversion and utilization technologies, and replacing traditional energy sources with renewable energy as much as possible is one of the necessary ways to achieve sustainable development.
Among various renewable energy utilization technologies, biomass molding fuel (produced by pellet machine or straw briquetting machine) has the characteristics of being sustainable, clean and efficient, and can make up for the defects of conventional energy. The national sustainable energy development strategy has great practical significance for alleviating energy shortages, adjusting energy consumption structure, promoting economic development, and improving the ecological environment. The promotion and application of biomass-forming fuels involves various aspects, such as production enterprises, consumers, governments, power companies, etc. They constitute the stakeholders in the promotion and application of molding fuels, and they will make strategic decisions to maximize their own interests. Consider introducing a game theory approach for analysis. Game theory is to study the decision-making of the decision-making body when the behavior of the decision-making body interacts directly and the equilibrium problem of the decision-making. That is, the decision-making individual who has conflict of interest interacts with the theory of how to optimize his strategic choice. It is different from the traditional microeconomics: 1 There is a conflict of interest in the decision-making body. 2 The utility function of the decision-making body depends not only on its own choice, but also on the choice of others; the optimal choice of the individual is the number of choices of others. 3 The decision-making body makes the most strategic choices and maximizes their own interests. 4 Assume that the decision-making body is rational. The author uses the game theory method to analyze the related party behaviors involved in the promotion and application of molding fuel, explore the diversified ways of the promotion and application of molding fuel, and put forward practical suggestions for the relevant departments.
1 farmer's choice
According to the current supply of rural energy in China and the measures taken by the government to deal with the development of renewable energy, a simple and complete information static game is constructed. Participants in the game: government and farmers. Farmers' strategic choices: burning shaped fuel and burning coal; government choices: subsidies and no subsidies. Assumption: 1 The annual consumption of coal for a family of three households is 295 yuan (365 d x 3 pieces × 0.27 yuan / piece); 2 the annual fuel consumption of a family of three households is 285 yuan (1.5t / year x 190 yuan / t); The government subsidy for molding fuel is 140 yuan / t (data source: Henan Provincial Department of Finance); 4 does not consider the price of special fuel and coal stoves for molding fuel.
It is not difficult to see that if the government does not subsidize, the expenditure on the use of molding fuel is slightly less than the expenditure on the use of coal, but the difference is too small, and the habit of long-term use of coal has been formed, and the performance of the molding fuel is not enough (especially the environment). Benefits and social benefits), the degree of trust and acceptance of new things is poor, so if the support is about the same, you will choose to continue to use coal.
If the government subsidizes the choice of use of shaped fuel (the use of shaped fuel contributes a lot to carbon dioxide emissions, according to the principle of “who benefits, who subsidizesâ€, the government should subsidize according to the corresponding calculation method), and its economic expenditure is only 25% of coal. Even if only economically, farmers will accept molding fuel and give up coal. Although the subsidy will bring a certain burden to the national finance, it highlights the social and environmental benefits; and the molding fuel is in the early stage of industrialization, the market is still immature, and the government's support is urgently needed. Foreign experience shows that government support is an important way to accelerate the development of renewable energy. With the advancement of the crystallization process and the maturity of the market, the number of subsidies has been reduced to abolished; farmers' understanding of molding fuel is undoubtedly more and more comprehensive: flammable and resistant to burning, high efficiency, no pollution, etc. The smouldering situation is replaced by a clean and hygienic environment, and the health of the farmers is improved, and the molding fuel is bound to be favored.
2 Carbon Fund Awards
With the most consumption and use of China's oil, natural gas and coal, the air quality of many cities in China has deteriorated, seriously threatening the development of the city and people's health. 90% of S02, 80% of soot and 85% of CO2 emissions from the national atmosphere are caused by coal burning. Four major acid rain areas are formed from the southwest to the south bank of the Yangtze River, accounting for 30% to 40% of China's land area. The loss of 100 billion yuan has reached more than 2% of the total number of national production children. In order to protect the earth shared by all mankind, in December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan. The Kyoto Protocol is contracted and agreed to: the development of renewable energy “CDM†project, the emission reduction C02 can be exchanged for the “carbon sink fund†of the contracting state, and the international conversion price is 4 to 5 US dollars for each fund reduction of 1t C02.
Therefore, the game between the power company and the government is constructed. There are two strategic choices for the government: rewards and no rewards; power companies also have two choices: coal-fired power generation and fuel-forming fuel power generation. Assumptions: 1 Power generation from power plants using shaped fuel and coal-fired power generation is A kW. h; 2 using fuel for forming fuel costs 1.2 yuan / (kW.h), consumption of fuel for forming 0.6 kg / (kW.h), on-grid price 0.3 yuan / (kW-h); 3 coal-fired power generation costs 0.2 yuan / ( kW-h), coal consumption 0.4kg/(kW-h), on-grid price 0.3 yuan/(kW"); 4 using shaped fuel to generate electricity to reward carbon sink fund: x yuan / kg.
If the government chooses not to reward carbon sink funds, there is no doubt that the power company will choose to burn coal. If a carbon sink fund is awarded, the choice of the firm is determined by the level of payment in different situations.
The prerequisites for enterprises to choose to form fuel for power generation are:
0. 1A1.67
That is to say, only when the company uses 1t of fuel for forming and rewards the carbon sink fund of 1,670 yuan, there will be a reward for carbon sink funds and the use of fuel for power generation by Nash, which far exceeds international standards and comes to the national finance. It is also unbearable. It can be seen that relying on the method of rewarding carbon sink funds to realize the industrial application of molding fuel is not feasible.
3 countermeasures and suggestions
(1) Under the current market immature situation, the promotion and application of molding fuel urgently needs government support. In the early stage of promotion, the government will provide appropriate subsidies to increase the enthusiasm of producing and using shaped fuels, thereby gradually expanding production scale and market share, and speeding up the application process; as the market matures and a more comprehensive understanding of molding fuels, even if the policies have Adjustment, its market share will only increase and will not shrink.
(2) Under the current situation, the method of rewarding carbon sink funds has little effect on the industrial application of molding fuel. In order to promote the industrial application of molding fuel, the government only stimulates technological innovation, improves equipment, improves production efficiency, realizes large-scale production, and further reduces costs; vigorously strengthens the propaganda work of molding fuel, enhances social recognition, and creates an atmosphere of universal participation. At the same time, with the increasingly tight supply of coal, coal prices have risen: the cost of coal-fired power generation has risen; the state has paid more and more attention to the issue of “agriculture, rural areas and farmersâ€, and introduced a series of subsidies. Farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain has been continuously improved. The increasing quantity is conducive to the reduction of the price of molding fuel to a certain extent, providing a broad space for the diversified application of molding fuel.
Information from: Biomass Forming Fuel Promotion http://
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