China's overall macroeconomic recovery is obvious

The macroeconomic heat index of bankers in the third quarter was 31.3%. The macroeconomic heat expectation index for the next quarter was 36.2%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the current quarter.

The macroeconomic heat index of entrepreneurs was 32.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period of last year and a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. The decline was 1.7 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

Spring River plumbing duck prophet. Recently, China's macroeconomic index has been beautiful, and the overall situation has picked up. The feelings and expectations of bankers and entrepreneurs on the economic recovery are heating up rapidly. The Bank of China’s Banker Questionnaire Report for the Third Quarter of 2013 and the Third Quarter Entrepreneur Questionnaire Report released on September 18th show that bankers, entrepreneurs and savers are more optimistic about the economic situation. Increased confidence in the macro economy and warmth in the economy.

Macroeconomic heat is expected to rise

Macroeconomic enthusiasm includes both bankers and entrepreneurs. The data shows that the macroeconomic heat index of bankers in the third quarter was 31.3%. The macroeconomic heat expectation index for the next quarter was 36.2%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the current quarter. Among them, 64.5% of bankers expect the macro economy to be “normal”, up 6.9 percentage points from the current quarter; 31.5% of bankers are expected to be “cold”, down 8.4 percentage points from the current quarter. This quarter's banker's macroeconomic confidence index was 61%.

Compared with bankers, entrepreneurs' feelings about the economy are not as optimistic as bankers, but the level of optimism is also rising. The data shows that the macroeconomic heat index of entrepreneurs is 32.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period of last year and a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. The decline was narrowed by 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 37.8% of enterprises believe that the macro economy is “cold”, 59.4% think “normal”, and 2.8% think “hot”.

Lu Ting, chief economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Greater China, said: As a series of data released recently is higher than expected, we have raised China's GDP growth rate to 7.7% in 2013. From the demand side, fixed asset investment has steadily expanded, consumer demand has also maintained vitality, combined with previously released export data, all of which confirms the view that the Chinese economy bottomed out in the second quarter of 2013. The growth data in August was better than expected, and inflationary pressures remained moderate, indicating that the Chinese economy has bottomed out.

Small and micro enterprise loan demand increased rapidly

The diffusion index, which reflects the banker’s judgment on the overall demand for loans, was 74.7% in the third quarter, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter. In terms of industries, the demand index for manufacturing and non-manufacturing loans was 64.8% and 63.6%, respectively, up 1.9 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. In terms of scale, the small and micro enterprise loan demand index was 76.3%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; the large and medium-sized enterprises loan demand index was 56.4% and 67.1%, respectively, down 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Due to the improvement of foreign trade situation, the export orders index of enterprises in the third quarter was 50.1%, which was 0.2 and 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter and the same period of last year. Among them, 19.1% of enterprises believe that export orders are “increased” compared with the previous quarter, 62.3% think “flat”, and 18.6% think “reduction”.

Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that the export growth rate rebounded sharply in August, manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment rebounded a lot, industrial production increased by 10.4% year-on-year, and power generation increased by 13.4% year-on-year. The policy is clearly effective. He further stated that from June 14 to September 7, eleven times the State Council executive meeting passed 16 measures of steady growth policy, and the steady growth policy in September continued to increase. He expects that from September to December, these policies will continue to work and the economy will continue to rise.

Depositors’ willingness to invest increases

Although the recent CPI has stabilized and inflationary pressures are not strong, the inflation problem remains a concern for residents. The data shows that the price satisfaction index for residents in the third quarter was 21.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 59.7% of residents believe that prices are “high and unacceptable”, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. Residents' future price expectation index was 70.5%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 41.7% of residents expect the price level to rise "in the next quarter", 48% of residents expect "substantially unchanged" or "decline", and 10.3% of residents "don't see".

It may be that the policy signal of the recent gold reform is becoming more and more obvious. The capital market is inspiring and the market confidence is greatly encouraged. Therefore, the residents who tend to “more investment” account for 36.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; Residents accounted for 46.2%, which was the same as last season; residents who tended to “more consumption” accounted for 17.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The top three investment methods preferred by residents are: “funds and wealth management products”, “real estate investment” and “buy bonds”. The proportion of residents who choose these three investment methods is 24.8%, 18.7% and 16.2% respectively.

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