The National Information Center's macroeconomic situation research group released an exclusive report on China Securities Journal on the 8th that China's economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter and full-year GDP will increase by about 7.6%, and the inflation rate will rebound moderately. The unemployment rate is basically stable. The report states that...
The National Information Center's macroeconomic situation research group released an exclusive report on China Securities Journal on the 8th that China's economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter and full-year GDP will increase by about 7.6%, and the inflation rate will rebound moderately. The unemployment rate is basically stable. The report pointed out that stable growth policy effects, corporate replenishment of inventories and stable external demand will support stable economic growth. However, capital supply from infrastructure projects is tight, new real estate starts in the early stage, slow overcapacity, and high base in the same period last year will inhibit The economy is picking up momentum. It is estimated that the GDP in the fourth quarter and the whole year will increase by about 7.6%; the CPI in the fourth quarter and the whole year will increase by 3.1% and 2.7% respectively, which is obviously lower than the upper limit of 3.5%; the PPI in the fourth quarter and the whole year will fall by 1.6 respectively. % and about 2%.
According to the report, in the medium term, problems such as “de-realization†and “extracorporeal circulation†have led to an increase in financial potential risks. Under the overcapacity suppression, the willingness of social capital to invest in the real economy is not strong, and the local financing platform “borrows the old and the oldâ€, so that the virtual economy is separated from the real economy. As Chinese companies merge and bankruptcy increases, the risk of credit default for some wealth management products increases. The accumulation of these factors has led to a rise in financial risks. In addition, although the US exits the quantitative easing policy, although it is delayed, it is expected to increase, and international working capital may be reversed again. Emerging economies including China are facing the appreciation of the US dollar, the financial market such as securities, and the rising cost of borrowing. Multiple factors will further increase China's potential financial risks.
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