China’s super-American becomes the world’s largest trading nation

In 2013, China’s total import and export trade exceeded the historical threshold of US$4 trillion for the first time, reaching US$4.16 trillion, replacing the United States as the world’s largest trading nation. Analysts said that in 2013, China's total trade volume is expected to exceed US$250 billion, and the gap between China and the US trade will widen in the next few years.

However, analysts pointed out that despite the momentum, China's export trade will face multiple challenges such as RMB appreciation and rising costs.

According to official Chinese data, in 2013, China’s total import and export trade reached US$4.16 trillion, breaking through the milestone of 4 trillion US dollars. The total import trade for the whole year was 1.95 trillion US dollars, an increase of 7.3%, and the export trade increased by 7.9% to 2.21 trillion US dollars.

According to official US data, in the first 11 months of 2013, US import and export trade totaled $3.53 trillion, and full-year data will be released next month. Unless the US import and export trade doubles in December, the United States will lose the crown of the world's largest trading nation.

China's General Administration of Customs also said on the 10th that in 2013 China surpassed the United States as the world's largest trading power. CNN said that the US trade data for the whole year has not yet been announced, but China has actually topped the list.

Analysis of available data shows that in 2013, the United States remained the world's largest importer. In the first 11 months of 2013, US import trade reached US$208 million, still higher than the US$1.95 trillion in China’s total import trade in 2013. At the same time, China's import and export trade is mainly based on commodity trade, and the service trade volume is less than half of that of the United States. According to the report of the World Trade Organization, in 2012, China's import business services ranked fifth in the world, and in the export trade in services, second only to the United States and Germany.

In the past 30 years, the rapid growth of China's economy at an average annual rate of about 10% has promoted the development of foreign trade. The sustained economic growth has also promoted the expansion of China's middle class wealth and the growth of global trade. Some analysts pointed out that in this process, bilateral trade between China and the United States is interdependent. In 2013, China’s bilateral trade volume with the United States increased by 7.5%; the US’s trade volume with China is expected to be comparable to that of Canada.

However, China's import and export trade in the future will face the challenge of RMB appreciation, rising labor costs, and weak demand in the US and Europe. According to the tracking data of Bloomberg Financial, the RMB appreciated by 2.9% against the US dollar in 2013. Earlier today, the yuan hit a record high of 6.050 against the dollar, which is the highest official exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar in the past 20 years.

According to a survey by Global Sources of more than 500 companies in China, companies believe that the biggest challenge in 2014 is the appreciation of the renminbi. The Wall Street Journal believes that due to the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the price of Chinese exports in the global market will rise. In 2014, Chinese exporters may face more problems, including rising wages and other rising costs.

Economists believe that even in the future revision of data, in 2013, the total US trade volume is unlikely to exceed China. The total trade volume of China in the whole year is expected to exceed US$250 billion. It is expected that in the next few years, the gap between China and the United States will continue to widen.

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