Business Club July 14th: The coal deep processing demonstration plan will be submitted to China Petroleum (601857) and the Chemical Industry Federation on the official website on the 12th. The “Deep-processing Demonstration Project Plan for Coal (draft) will be drafted by the National Development and Reform Commission. "It has been completed and is about to be reported to the State Council. It is expected that it will be formally introduced during the year. The industry believes that this means that more coal chemical demonstration projects will be implemented in real terms, which is a good thing for related companies.
According to the “Planningâ€, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China will liquefy coal, produce natural gas from coal, produce olefins from coal, and produce synthetic ammonia from coal—urea (single-series 1 million tons/year of synthetic ammonia), coal-based glycol, and low-grade coal. Major demonstration projects were arranged for the seven major blocks, including coal upgrading and coal-to-aromatics. Through the construction of demonstration projects, by 2015, it will basically master annual indirect liquefaction of 1 million to 1.8 million tons of coal, 1.3 billion to 2 billion standard cubic meters of coal-made natural gas, 600,000 to 1 million tons of coal-made synthetic ammonia, and 1.8 million tons of coal. Methanol, 600,000 to 1 million tons of coal to produce olefins from methanol, 200,000 to 300,000 tons of coal to ethylene glycol, and 1 million tons of low-grade coal to upgrade and other large-scale complete sets of technology, with project design and construction and key equipment manufacturing capabilities .
The "Planning" places special emphasis on: Demonstration projects are basically laid out in the provinces where coal is transferred out and the coal is transferred to provinces and regions. The demonstration project must aim at improving energy conversion efficiency throughout the entire cycle, strengthen integration and innovation, and carry out system energy conservation. To achieve the purpose of carbon dioxide emission reduction; new coal chemical projects, coal prices shall be calculated according to market prices.
“Planning†also requires that the waste, waste water, and waste gas of the demonstration project must be resource-resourced or harmlessly treated, all meet the discharge standards, and reach the international leading level of the same type of equipment; the management of the demonstration project must reach the leading level of domestic chemical companies. In the third year after the demonstration project was put into production, the capacity utilization rate reached over 90%.
According to the reporter's understanding, the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan" was born out of the "Mid-term and long-term development plan for the coal chemical industry" stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2006. The latter has been discussed for more than three years, but due to controversy, it has been aborted.
[Now, the next step in the development of coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas industries may be a major direction of policy encouragement. ] An industry expert introduced. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as an emerging industry, China's modern coal chemical industry is still in its infancy, and the primary task is not to rush to scale up. Instead, it is through the construction of a number of key demonstration projects to solve the problem of large-scale equipment, optimization of process technology, and improvement of transformation. The key issues such as efficiency, promotion of energy-saving and emission reduction, and reduction of environmental impacts are explored, and ways are explored for the efficient and clean transformation of coal and the diversified development of petrochemical raw materials. (Shanghai Securities News)
Coal Gasification (Quote Forum Information) (000968)
Jin Coal Group took over, bringing new opportunities for development. The Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will hold a 34.82% stake in the Taiyuan Coal Gasification Group Co., Ltd. and China National Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. entrusted the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to manage 16.18% of the shares of the Taiyuan Coal Gasification Group. (Total 51 % equity), entrusted to the management of Shanxi Coal Group. The actual controller of the company was changed from China Coal Energy Group to Shanxi Coal Group. In recent years, Jinmei Group has failed to seek listing, and it is expected to use the coal gasification platform to realize its capital operation plan. The Shanxi Coal Group is an important subject of the “gasification of Shanxi†policy during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Coal gasification (information forum information) will indirectly benefit from policy support, and the prospects for future development are promising.
2. Coal gasification (information forum information) Construction of coal mines is expected to start production in 2012, and the main business will be converted from coke to coal, which will significantly increase profitability. The company plans to build a production capacity of 5 million tons at the Longquan project (holding 42% of shares) and is expected to start production in 2012. Lingshi Huayuan Coal's planned production capacity is 900,000 tons/year, and Lingshi Huasheng Coal's planned production capacity is 900,000 tons/year, both of which will be put into operation in the second half of 2012. By then, the company's total coal production capacity will reach 10.35 million tons, which is higher than the current level. 192%. The coal business will replace coke as its main business, and its comprehensive profitability is expected to increase substantially.
3. Under the guidance of the “Gasification Shanxi†policy, the company's urban gas supply business is expected to transform and reduce the performance drag.
4. In 2011, the company plans to produce 3.55 million tons of raw coal, 1.46 million tons of clean coal, and 1.35 million tons of coke. It is estimated that the earnings per share for 2011-2012 will be 0.92, 1.23 yuan per share, and the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio will be 32 times.
The company is optimistic about the company's growth and asset integration expectations, giving it a [Buy] rating for the first time. The target price is 40 yuan. (National Securities Li Jing)
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Tianke Co., Ltd. (Marketing Forum News): The industry’s leading low-buy company recently conducted in-depth exchanges with Nanjing University on carbon dioxide capture and storage technology. The two parties reached an agreement on technical communication and collaborative development in the field of carbon capture and storage. Tianke's carbon dioxide purification technology is in a leading position and has been used in Shenhua's demonstration projects. The mineral storage technology of Nanjing University is a safe and environmentally friendly carbon dioxide storage technology. Carbon capture and storage technologies are closely integrated. If the two parties can successfully reduce the overall energy consumption of carbon capture and storage, this will have important application significance. At the end of last year, Tianke's set of pressure swing adsorption equipment was completed and put into production in South Korea, demonstrating the advanced nature of the company's technological devices. The cooperation with NTU has also shown that Tianke strengthens the technological innovation determination of the pressure swing adsorption industry, and develops the direction of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and environmental protection in the earth.
If the new coal chemical technology and engineering design general contracting company is fighting for a contract with Tangshan Jiahua's 200,000 tons/year coke oven gas methanol project, it will be completed and put into operation before 2012. Tianke is still in a leading position in the same field in China, and its influence in the international community is also growing. The company signed an agreement with Mongolian MCS on February 20 this year to provide technology for Mongolia's first DME project. Tianke will further expand the company's engineering design and contracting areas, and this will be the main growth point for future performance. It is expected that breakthroughs will be achieved in the total package business in 2011, which will allow the company's sales revenue to achieve double-leaf growth. Maintain Tianke [Buy] rating. (Cinda Securities Guo Jingyi)
Extending construction and development: performance is in line with expectations, Phoenix Nirvana finally sees that the company is currently in the early stage of performance inflection, and the two transitions in the early transition period are mainly: First, the transformation of the business within the group to the internal and external business of the Group; and second, the construction business Transformation of construction design business integration. It is expected that the design institute will be acquired in the future to realize the integration of design and construction.
The company will benefit greatly from the energy [Golden Triangle] The 12th Five-Year Plan for the introduction of energy and chemicals [Golden Triangle] The core areas of the economic zone include the Ningxia Ningdong Energy Chemical Base, Inner Mongolia Erdos City, Yulin City, Shaanxi and Gansu Jidong In the area, the supporting areas include the Yellow City belt along Ningxia, the Hetao area in Inner Mongolia and the Yan'an city in Shaanxi. The company’s major shareholder extension of the oil group is in Yan’an City. We believe that the company will benefit greatly from the introduction of the “Golden Triangle†planning for energy and chemicals.
III. Earnings Forecast and Investment Proposals The company's EPS in 2011, 2012 and 2013 is expected to be 0.42 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.88 yuan respectively. Considering the continuous improvement of the company's operating conditions, it is an inflection point company and can be given higher estimates. Value, given a target price of 16.8 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE for 11 years. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
Lu'an Huaneng: Significant increase in first-quarter results On April 29, 2011, the company released its 2011 quarterly announcement. The first quarterly announcement in 2011 showed that the company achieved operating revenue of 4.519 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 19.48%; net profit attributable to the parent company owner was 942 million yuan, an increase of 36.15%; and basic earnings per share was 0.82 yuan, an increase of 36.67%.
We are optimistic about the huge profit growth space that the coal injected into the company brings, and the high growth rate and strong asset injection expectations for integrated coal mine capacity release support at the end of 2012 are expected to be 3.24 yuan, 3.93 yuan and 4.94 yuan for 2011-2013 respectively. Diluted EPS was 1.62 yuan, 1.96 yuan and 2.47 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE of 21.5 times, 17.74 times and 14.11 times, respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating. (Founder Securities Deng Xinrong)
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Quasi-oil shares (002207): Looking for bright spots in traditional businesses CBM has uncertainties Based on the existing traditional businesses, the company attaches importance to the introduction and development of technologies, and more advanced oil fields such as coiled tubing, on-site nitrogen production, and tank cleaning. Service technology is being promoted and applied to ensure that the company's income level can continue to grow under the premise of stable business volume.
In the short term, it is difficult for CBM to contribute profits. However, in order to ease the burden, the company will temporarily suspend CBM-related businesses including exploration and equipment manufacturing, and concentrate on handling the corresponding exploration permits. There will be uncertainties in the future. It is expected that the CBM business will hardly make substantial contribution to the company's performance within three years. In the medium to long term, taking into account the huge market potential in China's natural gas industry and the low cost brought by the location advantages of the company, the CBM business will be an important highlight of the company's future development. (Peking Securities Wu Ying)
China National Chemicals (601117): Exclusive premium for the outbreak of investment in modern coal chemical industry will be our first push in 2011, and we expect to continue to outperform the broader market in the second half of the year. We believe that the company is a growth in the performance of the construction industry and the decisive growth of new contracts signed Strong one company. Since the beginning of 2011, we have issued nine consecutive reports strongly recommended. So far the company has achieved a 65.2% increase since 2011, and has substantially outperformed the broader market by 59.2%. We believe that the company's share price will continue to outperform the broader market in the second half of the year.
The company’s market value of 70 billion is just around the corner. The target price is 14 yuan, which corresponds to 2012 EPS and 20 times PE.
We expect the company's 11-13 year EPS to be 0.50 yuan and 0.70 yuan, respectively, an increase of 47% year-on-year and 40% through the PE method and comparative valuation method. In consideration, we believe that the company's market value of 70 billion yuan will never be an exaggeration. On June 30, 2011, the total market value of Donghua Science and Technology was 12.244 billion yuan and 5.7 times.
The development of modern coal chemical industry and the past and present life, the ultimate success of the industry investment outbreak of the erosion from the industry development process, the current China's modern coal chemical industry in the industry inflection point before the outbreak. With the completion of modern coal chemical demonstration projects during the 11th five-year period, stable operation, and good economic returns, enterprises and local governments have set off a new round of coal chemical investment boom from the bottom up. Modern coal chemical industry will inexorably shift from demonstration construction to large-scale industrialization.
According to the latest media news, the first draft of the “12th Five-Year Plan for Coal Deepening and Processingâ€, which is regarded as the 12th Five-Year Plan for coal chemical industry, has been completed. All parties are soliciting opinions. It is expected that it will be introduced at the earliest in July. According to incomplete statistics, the total investment in modern coal chemical planning in major provinces during the 12th Five-Year Plan will exceed RMB 2 trillion. Compared with the investment amount of about RMB 50 billion in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the investment in the modern coal chemical industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan period is indeed a splendid outbreak.
The leading advantages of modern coal chemical industry are obvious. In 2011, the new orders will be directed to 100 billion in the coal chemical engineering sector. The company is in the leading position in the industry, mainly relying on its strong R&D strength, the world's leading core technology of coal chemical industry, and non-replication. The rich engineering experience and ability to survey, design, construct and maintain the entire industry chain. As the leading coal chemical engineering company, the company has obvious advantages in terms of first-mover initiative. It is expected that the company's newly signed contract amount will be directed at 100 billion yuan in 2011.
The stable operation of the company will ensure that the company's operating style will be stable and operating efficiency will increase steadily. The company's main business grew steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% from 2006 to 2010; debt to debt ratio dropped from 84.1% to 60.8%, three expenses from 7.7% to 5.5%, and net profit from 3.0%. To 5.4%. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
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Sinochem Geotechnical: Sharing the industry premium for the outbreak of investment in modern coal chemical industry At present, China's coal chemical industry is in the early stage of the industry inflection point. With the completion of the new coal chemical demonstration projects during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, stable operation, and good economic returns, enterprises and local governments have set off a new wave of coal chemical investment booms. Unlike the top-down investment boom in 2005, this investment boom is driven from the bottom up, and it is entirely the self-distribution of enterprises and local governments. This indicates that the new type of coal chemical industry will be irresistibly converted from a demonstration of construction to large-scale industrialization.
To this end, the state will issue the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan", which is regarded as the "12th Five-Year Plan" of the coal chemical industry. According to the latest media news, the relevant documents have been completed and all parties are soliciting opinions. It is expected to be issued at the earliest in July.
According to incomplete statistics, the total planned investment for coal chemical in major provinces during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will exceed RMB 2 trillion.
The company's 2010 operating income is only 225 million yuan, tens of billions of coal chemical projects at any time or will prompt the company's performance at any time outbreak, the company is still small, operating income in 2010 was only 225 million yuan, net profit of only 044 million yuan. In comparison, the scale of investment in coal chemical projects is much larger. In the new coal chemical project, the single project with the smallest scale is coal to ethylene glycol, which is usually between 2 billion and 2 billion to 2.5 billion, while the other four types of projects are still costing billions or even tens of billions.
Given the company’s absolute leadership in the field of high-energy-grade power plants, we expect that with the launch of a large number of coal chemical projects, the company may usher in the peak period for undertaking coal chemical projects. Once a coal chemical project with a billion-dollar contribution is undertaken, company performance will break out.
With the introduction of the modern coal chemical industry plan, the company will benefit greatly. We estimate that the company's net profit will increase by about 60% in 11 years to over 70 million yuan.
Upgrade the company's investment rating to [strongly recommended], and the target price of 35.4 yuan in the near future has exceeded the target price of 25.3 yuan in the previous issue of Sinochem Geotechnical Research Report - Active Reserve, or will become an industry integrator.
We believe that with the forthcoming “12th Five-Year Plan for Coal Deepening and Processingâ€, that is, the forthcoming 12th Five-Year Plan for coal chemical industry, the company will share the premium of the industry investment outbreak.
Maintain the company's earnings forecast unchanged. It is expected that the company's basic earnings per share in 2011, 2012 and 2013 will be 0.70 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.44 yuan, respectively, an increase of 60%, 44%, and 43% year-on-year respectively. Upgrade the company's investment rating to strongly recommend and raise the target price to 35.4 yuan, which corresponds to 2012 EPS and 35 times PE. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
Hubei Yihua (Information forum): Western coal chemical industry to support the development of safety in 2011 The marginal increase in crude oil prices will highlight the cost advantage of coal chemical industry, the west is the development trend of coal chemical industry such as urea, PVC. The company's PVC and urea layout in the western region has blossomed, and Inner Mongolia Yihua 300,000 tons of PVC was put into operation in April 2010. The more cost-effective Qinghai Yihua 300,000 tons of PVC will also be put into operation in the second quarter of 2011. Western PVC will become one of the company's most powerful products. It is conservatively expected to contribute RMB 92 million to the company in 11 years and contribute EPS 0.17 yuan.
Urea flexibility is greatest, and profitability will exceed that of the same period last year.
The company's urea elasticity is the first in the industry, and the urea price is increased by RMB0.33 per 100 yuan. Judging from the situation in the first half of this year, the price of urea was about 20% higher than that of the same period of last year, and the price of diammonium rose by about 15%. Plus, the high price of food due to inflation will stimulate the use of urea, although the price of urea and phosphate fertilizer has increased. In relation to rising raw materials, the company has raw coal and its production base is mostly in the cheap raw material zone. The first impact is relatively small. Therefore, we believe that the profitability of urea this year is much better than last year, and the performance elasticity is about 0.16 yuan.
Acquired Yihua Fertilizer and Guizhou Yihua, and provided additional security for the stock price. The marginal fertilizer industry and Guizhou Yihua were high-quality assets with strong profitability under the Yihua Group. After the acquisition, the company is expected to contribute EPS0 to the company in 11 years. .31 yuan and 0.08 yuan, more importantly, straighten out the equity relationship between the listed company and the group, avoiding related party transactions, making the management of the minority shareholders more consistent, and fully motivating the company's performance. In June 2011, the company re-adjusted the issuance price not less than RMB 19.30 per share, and the target has already obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The stock price has a limited downside, with a strong safety margin and an upward momentum.
Maintain [strongly recommended] rating.
It is estimated that the EPS for 2011-2013 will be 1.51 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.36 yuan, according to the latest stock price of 18.86 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 13 times, 10 times, and 8 times respectively. At present, the company is the industry's lowest valuation target, and the additional issuance price is tentatively set at 19.3 yuan per share. The downward margin of safety is higher and the upward momentum is full, and the [highly recommended] rating is maintained. (The first entrepreneur Wang Yuyu)
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Hualu Hengsheng (Quote Forum Information) (600426): The high oil price coal chemical industry with the best coal chemical industry standard with both performance and imagination under high oil prices has broad prospects for development. At present, international crude oil prices have rebounded to the highest point after the financial crisis and have exceeded US$110/barrel. The cost advantage of coal chemical industry is even more pronounced. In the next 10 years, coal chemical industry will develop into a large industry in China with broad prospects.
Hua Lu Hengsheng (quote forum information) is a benchmarking company for domestic coal chemical industry. The company's coal-water slurry coal gasification technology is used as the most advanced and mature coal gasification technology in the country. Compared with traditional coal-head urea enterprises, the cost gap has been 300 yuan/ton- 400 yuan/ton. The company relies on the gas platform and actively develops polygeneration, forming an industry chain of “one head and three tailsâ€. It has a variety of products such as urea, methanol, DMF, trimethylamine, acetic acid, and acetic anhydride. It will also start producing adipic acid in the next 2 years. With ethylene glycol, the company also has a similar cost advantage. The leading coal gasification technology and integration advantages have made the company a benchmark for domestic coal chemical companies.
The company's urea, DMF, trimethylamine, acetic acid and anhydride businesses have developed steadily. At present, the company's urea price is 1930 yuan/ton, and its gross profit margin is about 17%. In the future, with the improvement of the supply and demand structure of the urea industry, the profitability of the company's urea industry will improve significantly. The company currently has DMF capacity of 230,000 tons. It is currently the largest DMF manufacturer in China. In the next two years, the DMF industry will maintain a high degree of prosperity. The company's DMF and trimethylamine businesses will flexibly adjust their production capacity and stably contribute profits. The company completed the issuance in December 2010, raising the company's production capacity from 350,000 tons to 800,000 tons. It is expected that the acetic acid project will be put into operation by the end of 2011, which will help improve the profitability of the company's acetic acid business.
Ethylene glycol is the company's most imaginative product, raising its valuation. The company's 50,000-tonne ethylene glycol project is expected to be completed in May 2011 and put into production in June. According to the company's accounting cost of about 4,000 yuan / ton, the cost corresponding to the oil law of 50 US dollars / barrel of oil prices, has a cost advantage. After the company's ethylene glycol project is put into production, it will significantly increase the company's valuation.
The adipic acid boom has increased significantly. The company's mass production is at that time. The company is building 160,000 tons of adipic acid project and is expected to start production in September 2011. At present, the price of adipic acid is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of the company is about 11,000 yuan/ton. The production of adipic acid project will greatly increase the company's performance.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice. We forecast the company's 2011-2013 EPS to be 0.84 yuan, 1.20 yuan and 1.37 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the company's PE of 20, 14 and 12 times in 2011-2013, respectively, and we give the company a Buy rating. (Guohai Securities é„¢ Zhu Bingç¿Ÿ Lu Qiong)
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Chitianhua (Quote Forum Information) (600227): The future is optimistic about the development of new coal chemical industry developments (1) Rising natural gas prices and undersupply, and urea sales [prosperous busy season] are the main reasons for the declining performance in the first quarter. Starting in June 2010, the ex-factory price of natural gas rose by 0.23 yuan per cubic meter, and transportation costs rose by 0.08 yuan per cubic meter. Based on 700 cubic meters of urea-consuming natural gas per ton, only one natural gas would increase the cost of gas head urea by 210 yuan. The shortage of natural gas led to a driving time of only 30 days in the first quarter. In addition, the supply and demand of the nitrogen fertilizer market has been imbalanced in recent years, and urea sales have appeared to be in a situation of no boom during the peak season. The company’s sales in the first quarter were poor.
(2) The future is optimistic about the development prospects of emerging coal chemical industry. The company's holding subsidiary, Guizhou Tianfu Chemical Co., Ltd., has an annual output of 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 150,000 tons of dimethyl ether coal chemical project. On December 6, 2010, it produced synthetic ammonia, methanol and dimethyl ether products and entered the trial production stage. It plans to produce 190,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 100,000 tons of dimethyl ether in 11 years. The wholly-owned subsidiary Guizhou Jinke Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 520,000 tons of urea and 300,000 tons of methanol and coal chemical projects. The project has completed a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan in the year, with an accumulated investment of 4.574 billion yuan. The field level project has been completed and the equipment has been installed. Near the end, it is expected that the installation will be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2011, entering the commissioning and commissioning stage.
As the new coal chemical projects are officially put into operation, the company's production capacity and sales revenue will increase substantially. Relevant regulations of the relevant state departments on the suppression of overcapacity and redundant construction in certain industries have greatly increased the barriers to entry for coal chemical projects, and are also good for the company's coal chemical projects.
(3) Yanzi Coal Mine will reduce the cost of the company's coal chemical project. An important feature of coal chemical projects is that there is water and coal. Guizhou boasts abundant water resources. The company's coal chemical project occupies an advanced position in water resources. The company holds a 49% stake in Yanzi Coal Mine with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons. It can solve the coal supply of coal chemical project by 1/3, which is a significant drop in the cost of coal chemical projects.
According to the “Planningâ€, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China will liquefy coal, produce natural gas from coal, produce olefins from coal, and produce synthetic ammonia from coal—urea (single-series 1 million tons/year of synthetic ammonia), coal-based glycol, and low-grade coal. Major demonstration projects were arranged for the seven major blocks, including coal upgrading and coal-to-aromatics. Through the construction of demonstration projects, by 2015, it will basically master annual indirect liquefaction of 1 million to 1.8 million tons of coal, 1.3 billion to 2 billion standard cubic meters of coal-made natural gas, 600,000 to 1 million tons of coal-made synthetic ammonia, and 1.8 million tons of coal. Methanol, 600,000 to 1 million tons of coal to produce olefins from methanol, 200,000 to 300,000 tons of coal to ethylene glycol, and 1 million tons of low-grade coal to upgrade and other large-scale complete sets of technology, with project design and construction and key equipment manufacturing capabilities .
The "Planning" places special emphasis on: Demonstration projects are basically laid out in the provinces where coal is transferred out and the coal is transferred to provinces and regions. The demonstration project must aim at improving energy conversion efficiency throughout the entire cycle, strengthen integration and innovation, and carry out system energy conservation. To achieve the purpose of carbon dioxide emission reduction; new coal chemical projects, coal prices shall be calculated according to market prices.
“Planning†also requires that the waste, waste water, and waste gas of the demonstration project must be resource-resourced or harmlessly treated, all meet the discharge standards, and reach the international leading level of the same type of equipment; the management of the demonstration project must reach the leading level of domestic chemical companies. In the third year after the demonstration project was put into production, the capacity utilization rate reached over 90%.
According to the reporter's understanding, the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan" was born out of the "Mid-term and long-term development plan for the coal chemical industry" stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2006. The latter has been discussed for more than three years, but due to controversy, it has been aborted.
[Now, the next step in the development of coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas industries may be a major direction of policy encouragement. ] An industry expert introduced. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as an emerging industry, China's modern coal chemical industry is still in its infancy, and the primary task is not to rush to scale up. Instead, it is through the construction of a number of key demonstration projects to solve the problem of large-scale equipment, optimization of process technology, and improvement of transformation. The key issues such as efficiency, promotion of energy-saving and emission reduction, and reduction of environmental impacts are explored, and ways are explored for the efficient and clean transformation of coal and the diversified development of petrochemical raw materials. (Shanghai Securities News)
Coal Gasification (Quote Forum Information) (000968)
Jin Coal Group took over, bringing new opportunities for development. The Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will hold a 34.82% stake in the Taiyuan Coal Gasification Group Co., Ltd. and China National Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. entrusted the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to manage 16.18% of the shares of the Taiyuan Coal Gasification Group. (Total 51 % equity), entrusted to the management of Shanxi Coal Group. The actual controller of the company was changed from China Coal Energy Group to Shanxi Coal Group. In recent years, Jinmei Group has failed to seek listing, and it is expected to use the coal gasification platform to realize its capital operation plan. The Shanxi Coal Group is an important subject of the “gasification of Shanxi†policy during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Coal gasification (information forum information) will indirectly benefit from policy support, and the prospects for future development are promising.
2. Coal gasification (information forum information) Construction of coal mines is expected to start production in 2012, and the main business will be converted from coke to coal, which will significantly increase profitability. The company plans to build a production capacity of 5 million tons at the Longquan project (holding 42% of shares) and is expected to start production in 2012. Lingshi Huayuan Coal's planned production capacity is 900,000 tons/year, and Lingshi Huasheng Coal's planned production capacity is 900,000 tons/year, both of which will be put into operation in the second half of 2012. By then, the company's total coal production capacity will reach 10.35 million tons, which is higher than the current level. 192%. The coal business will replace coke as its main business, and its comprehensive profitability is expected to increase substantially.
3. Under the guidance of the “Gasification Shanxi†policy, the company's urban gas supply business is expected to transform and reduce the performance drag.
4. In 2011, the company plans to produce 3.55 million tons of raw coal, 1.46 million tons of clean coal, and 1.35 million tons of coke. It is estimated that the earnings per share for 2011-2012 will be 0.92, 1.23 yuan per share, and the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio will be 32 times.
The company is optimistic about the company's growth and asset integration expectations, giving it a [Buy] rating for the first time. The target price is 40 yuan. (National Securities Li Jing)
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Tianke Co., Ltd. (Marketing Forum News): The industry’s leading low-buy company recently conducted in-depth exchanges with Nanjing University on carbon dioxide capture and storage technology. The two parties reached an agreement on technical communication and collaborative development in the field of carbon capture and storage. Tianke's carbon dioxide purification technology is in a leading position and has been used in Shenhua's demonstration projects. The mineral storage technology of Nanjing University is a safe and environmentally friendly carbon dioxide storage technology. Carbon capture and storage technologies are closely integrated. If the two parties can successfully reduce the overall energy consumption of carbon capture and storage, this will have important application significance. At the end of last year, Tianke's set of pressure swing adsorption equipment was completed and put into production in South Korea, demonstrating the advanced nature of the company's technological devices. The cooperation with NTU has also shown that Tianke strengthens the technological innovation determination of the pressure swing adsorption industry, and develops the direction of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and environmental protection in the earth.
If the new coal chemical technology and engineering design general contracting company is fighting for a contract with Tangshan Jiahua's 200,000 tons/year coke oven gas methanol project, it will be completed and put into operation before 2012. Tianke is still in a leading position in the same field in China, and its influence in the international community is also growing. The company signed an agreement with Mongolian MCS on February 20 this year to provide technology for Mongolia's first DME project. Tianke will further expand the company's engineering design and contracting areas, and this will be the main growth point for future performance. It is expected that breakthroughs will be achieved in the total package business in 2011, which will allow the company's sales revenue to achieve double-leaf growth. Maintain Tianke [Buy] rating. (Cinda Securities Guo Jingyi)
Extending construction and development: performance is in line with expectations, Phoenix Nirvana finally sees that the company is currently in the early stage of performance inflection, and the two transitions in the early transition period are mainly: First, the transformation of the business within the group to the internal and external business of the Group; and second, the construction business Transformation of construction design business integration. It is expected that the design institute will be acquired in the future to realize the integration of design and construction.
The company will benefit greatly from the energy [Golden Triangle] The 12th Five-Year Plan for the introduction of energy and chemicals [Golden Triangle] The core areas of the economic zone include the Ningxia Ningdong Energy Chemical Base, Inner Mongolia Erdos City, Yulin City, Shaanxi and Gansu Jidong In the area, the supporting areas include the Yellow City belt along Ningxia, the Hetao area in Inner Mongolia and the Yan'an city in Shaanxi. The company’s major shareholder extension of the oil group is in Yan’an City. We believe that the company will benefit greatly from the introduction of the “Golden Triangle†planning for energy and chemicals.
III. Earnings Forecast and Investment Proposals The company's EPS in 2011, 2012 and 2013 is expected to be 0.42 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.88 yuan respectively. Considering the continuous improvement of the company's operating conditions, it is an inflection point company and can be given higher estimates. Value, given a target price of 16.8 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE for 11 years. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
Lu'an Huaneng: Significant increase in first-quarter results On April 29, 2011, the company released its 2011 quarterly announcement. The first quarterly announcement in 2011 showed that the company achieved operating revenue of 4.519 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 19.48%; net profit attributable to the parent company owner was 942 million yuan, an increase of 36.15%; and basic earnings per share was 0.82 yuan, an increase of 36.67%.
We are optimistic about the huge profit growth space that the coal injected into the company brings, and the high growth rate and strong asset injection expectations for integrated coal mine capacity release support at the end of 2012 are expected to be 3.24 yuan, 3.93 yuan and 4.94 yuan for 2011-2013 respectively. Diluted EPS was 1.62 yuan, 1.96 yuan and 2.47 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE of 21.5 times, 17.74 times and 14.11 times, respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating. (Founder Securities Deng Xinrong)
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Quasi-oil shares (002207): Looking for bright spots in traditional businesses CBM has uncertainties Based on the existing traditional businesses, the company attaches importance to the introduction and development of technologies, and more advanced oil fields such as coiled tubing, on-site nitrogen production, and tank cleaning. Service technology is being promoted and applied to ensure that the company's income level can continue to grow under the premise of stable business volume.
In the short term, it is difficult for CBM to contribute profits. However, in order to ease the burden, the company will temporarily suspend CBM-related businesses including exploration and equipment manufacturing, and concentrate on handling the corresponding exploration permits. There will be uncertainties in the future. It is expected that the CBM business will hardly make substantial contribution to the company's performance within three years. In the medium to long term, taking into account the huge market potential in China's natural gas industry and the low cost brought by the location advantages of the company, the CBM business will be an important highlight of the company's future development. (Peking Securities Wu Ying)
China National Chemicals (601117): Exclusive premium for the outbreak of investment in modern coal chemical industry will be our first push in 2011, and we expect to continue to outperform the broader market in the second half of the year. We believe that the company is a growth in the performance of the construction industry and the decisive growth of new contracts signed Strong one company. Since the beginning of 2011, we have issued nine consecutive reports strongly recommended. So far the company has achieved a 65.2% increase since 2011, and has substantially outperformed the broader market by 59.2%. We believe that the company's share price will continue to outperform the broader market in the second half of the year.
The company’s market value of 70 billion is just around the corner. The target price is 14 yuan, which corresponds to 2012 EPS and 20 times PE.
We expect the company's 11-13 year EPS to be 0.50 yuan and 0.70 yuan, respectively, an increase of 47% year-on-year and 40% through the PE method and comparative valuation method. In consideration, we believe that the company's market value of 70 billion yuan will never be an exaggeration. On June 30, 2011, the total market value of Donghua Science and Technology was 12.244 billion yuan and 5.7 times.
The development of modern coal chemical industry and the past and present life, the ultimate success of the industry investment outbreak of the erosion from the industry development process, the current China's modern coal chemical industry in the industry inflection point before the outbreak. With the completion of modern coal chemical demonstration projects during the 11th five-year period, stable operation, and good economic returns, enterprises and local governments have set off a new round of coal chemical investment boom from the bottom up. Modern coal chemical industry will inexorably shift from demonstration construction to large-scale industrialization.
According to the latest media news, the first draft of the “12th Five-Year Plan for Coal Deepening and Processingâ€, which is regarded as the 12th Five-Year Plan for coal chemical industry, has been completed. All parties are soliciting opinions. It is expected that it will be introduced at the earliest in July. According to incomplete statistics, the total investment in modern coal chemical planning in major provinces during the 12th Five-Year Plan will exceed RMB 2 trillion. Compared with the investment amount of about RMB 50 billion in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the investment in the modern coal chemical industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan period is indeed a splendid outbreak.
The leading advantages of modern coal chemical industry are obvious. In 2011, the new orders will be directed to 100 billion in the coal chemical engineering sector. The company is in the leading position in the industry, mainly relying on its strong R&D strength, the world's leading core technology of coal chemical industry, and non-replication. The rich engineering experience and ability to survey, design, construct and maintain the entire industry chain. As the leading coal chemical engineering company, the company has obvious advantages in terms of first-mover initiative. It is expected that the company's newly signed contract amount will be directed at 100 billion yuan in 2011.
The stable operation of the company will ensure that the company's operating style will be stable and operating efficiency will increase steadily. The company's main business grew steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% from 2006 to 2010; debt to debt ratio dropped from 84.1% to 60.8%, three expenses from 7.7% to 5.5%, and net profit from 3.0%. To 5.4%. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
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Sinochem Geotechnical: Sharing the industry premium for the outbreak of investment in modern coal chemical industry At present, China's coal chemical industry is in the early stage of the industry inflection point. With the completion of the new coal chemical demonstration projects during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, stable operation, and good economic returns, enterprises and local governments have set off a new wave of coal chemical investment booms. Unlike the top-down investment boom in 2005, this investment boom is driven from the bottom up, and it is entirely the self-distribution of enterprises and local governments. This indicates that the new type of coal chemical industry will be irresistibly converted from a demonstration of construction to large-scale industrialization.
To this end, the state will issue the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan", which is regarded as the "12th Five-Year Plan" of the coal chemical industry. According to the latest media news, the relevant documents have been completed and all parties are soliciting opinions. It is expected to be issued at the earliest in July.
According to incomplete statistics, the total planned investment for coal chemical in major provinces during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will exceed RMB 2 trillion.
The company's 2010 operating income is only 225 million yuan, tens of billions of coal chemical projects at any time or will prompt the company's performance at any time outbreak, the company is still small, operating income in 2010 was only 225 million yuan, net profit of only 044 million yuan. In comparison, the scale of investment in coal chemical projects is much larger. In the new coal chemical project, the single project with the smallest scale is coal to ethylene glycol, which is usually between 2 billion and 2 billion to 2.5 billion, while the other four types of projects are still costing billions or even tens of billions.
Given the company’s absolute leadership in the field of high-energy-grade power plants, we expect that with the launch of a large number of coal chemical projects, the company may usher in the peak period for undertaking coal chemical projects. Once a coal chemical project with a billion-dollar contribution is undertaken, company performance will break out.
With the introduction of the modern coal chemical industry plan, the company will benefit greatly. We estimate that the company's net profit will increase by about 60% in 11 years to over 70 million yuan.
Upgrade the company's investment rating to [strongly recommended], and the target price of 35.4 yuan in the near future has exceeded the target price of 25.3 yuan in the previous issue of Sinochem Geotechnical Research Report - Active Reserve, or will become an industry integrator.
We believe that with the forthcoming “12th Five-Year Plan for Coal Deepening and Processingâ€, that is, the forthcoming 12th Five-Year Plan for coal chemical industry, the company will share the premium of the industry investment outbreak.
Maintain the company's earnings forecast unchanged. It is expected that the company's basic earnings per share in 2011, 2012 and 2013 will be 0.70 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.44 yuan, respectively, an increase of 60%, 44%, and 43% year-on-year respectively. Upgrade the company's investment rating to strongly recommend and raise the target price to 35.4 yuan, which corresponds to 2012 EPS and 35 times PE. (Minsheng Securities Wang Xiaoyong)
Hubei Yihua (Information forum): Western coal chemical industry to support the development of safety in 2011 The marginal increase in crude oil prices will highlight the cost advantage of coal chemical industry, the west is the development trend of coal chemical industry such as urea, PVC. The company's PVC and urea layout in the western region has blossomed, and Inner Mongolia Yihua 300,000 tons of PVC was put into operation in April 2010. The more cost-effective Qinghai Yihua 300,000 tons of PVC will also be put into operation in the second quarter of 2011. Western PVC will become one of the company's most powerful products. It is conservatively expected to contribute RMB 92 million to the company in 11 years and contribute EPS 0.17 yuan.
Urea flexibility is greatest, and profitability will exceed that of the same period last year.
The company's urea elasticity is the first in the industry, and the urea price is increased by RMB0.33 per 100 yuan. Judging from the situation in the first half of this year, the price of urea was about 20% higher than that of the same period of last year, and the price of diammonium rose by about 15%. Plus, the high price of food due to inflation will stimulate the use of urea, although the price of urea and phosphate fertilizer has increased. In relation to rising raw materials, the company has raw coal and its production base is mostly in the cheap raw material zone. The first impact is relatively small. Therefore, we believe that the profitability of urea this year is much better than last year, and the performance elasticity is about 0.16 yuan.
Acquired Yihua Fertilizer and Guizhou Yihua, and provided additional security for the stock price. The marginal fertilizer industry and Guizhou Yihua were high-quality assets with strong profitability under the Yihua Group. After the acquisition, the company is expected to contribute EPS0 to the company in 11 years. .31 yuan and 0.08 yuan, more importantly, straighten out the equity relationship between the listed company and the group, avoiding related party transactions, making the management of the minority shareholders more consistent, and fully motivating the company's performance. In June 2011, the company re-adjusted the issuance price not less than RMB 19.30 per share, and the target has already obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The stock price has a limited downside, with a strong safety margin and an upward momentum.
Maintain [strongly recommended] rating.
It is estimated that the EPS for 2011-2013 will be 1.51 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.36 yuan, according to the latest stock price of 18.86 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 13 times, 10 times, and 8 times respectively. At present, the company is the industry's lowest valuation target, and the additional issuance price is tentatively set at 19.3 yuan per share. The downward margin of safety is higher and the upward momentum is full, and the [highly recommended] rating is maintained. (The first entrepreneur Wang Yuyu)
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Hualu Hengsheng (Quote Forum Information) (600426): The high oil price coal chemical industry with the best coal chemical industry standard with both performance and imagination under high oil prices has broad prospects for development. At present, international crude oil prices have rebounded to the highest point after the financial crisis and have exceeded US$110/barrel. The cost advantage of coal chemical industry is even more pronounced. In the next 10 years, coal chemical industry will develop into a large industry in China with broad prospects.
Hua Lu Hengsheng (quote forum information) is a benchmarking company for domestic coal chemical industry. The company's coal-water slurry coal gasification technology is used as the most advanced and mature coal gasification technology in the country. Compared with traditional coal-head urea enterprises, the cost gap has been 300 yuan/ton- 400 yuan/ton. The company relies on the gas platform and actively develops polygeneration, forming an industry chain of “one head and three tailsâ€. It has a variety of products such as urea, methanol, DMF, trimethylamine, acetic acid, and acetic anhydride. It will also start producing adipic acid in the next 2 years. With ethylene glycol, the company also has a similar cost advantage. The leading coal gasification technology and integration advantages have made the company a benchmark for domestic coal chemical companies.
The company's urea, DMF, trimethylamine, acetic acid and anhydride businesses have developed steadily. At present, the company's urea price is 1930 yuan/ton, and its gross profit margin is about 17%. In the future, with the improvement of the supply and demand structure of the urea industry, the profitability of the company's urea industry will improve significantly. The company currently has DMF capacity of 230,000 tons. It is currently the largest DMF manufacturer in China. In the next two years, the DMF industry will maintain a high degree of prosperity. The company's DMF and trimethylamine businesses will flexibly adjust their production capacity and stably contribute profits. The company completed the issuance in December 2010, raising the company's production capacity from 350,000 tons to 800,000 tons. It is expected that the acetic acid project will be put into operation by the end of 2011, which will help improve the profitability of the company's acetic acid business.
Ethylene glycol is the company's most imaginative product, raising its valuation. The company's 50,000-tonne ethylene glycol project is expected to be completed in May 2011 and put into production in June. According to the company's accounting cost of about 4,000 yuan / ton, the cost corresponding to the oil law of 50 US dollars / barrel of oil prices, has a cost advantage. After the company's ethylene glycol project is put into production, it will significantly increase the company's valuation.
The adipic acid boom has increased significantly. The company's mass production is at that time. The company is building 160,000 tons of adipic acid project and is expected to start production in September 2011. At present, the price of adipic acid is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of the company is about 11,000 yuan/ton. The production of adipic acid project will greatly increase the company's performance.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice. We forecast the company's 2011-2013 EPS to be 0.84 yuan, 1.20 yuan and 1.37 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the company's PE of 20, 14 and 12 times in 2011-2013, respectively, and we give the company a Buy rating. (Guohai Securities é„¢ Zhu Bingç¿Ÿ Lu Qiong)
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Chitianhua (Quote Forum Information) (600227): The future is optimistic about the development of new coal chemical industry developments (1) Rising natural gas prices and undersupply, and urea sales [prosperous busy season] are the main reasons for the declining performance in the first quarter. Starting in June 2010, the ex-factory price of natural gas rose by 0.23 yuan per cubic meter, and transportation costs rose by 0.08 yuan per cubic meter. Based on 700 cubic meters of urea-consuming natural gas per ton, only one natural gas would increase the cost of gas head urea by 210 yuan. The shortage of natural gas led to a driving time of only 30 days in the first quarter. In addition, the supply and demand of the nitrogen fertilizer market has been imbalanced in recent years, and urea sales have appeared to be in a situation of no boom during the peak season. The company’s sales in the first quarter were poor.
(2) The future is optimistic about the development prospects of emerging coal chemical industry. The company's holding subsidiary, Guizhou Tianfu Chemical Co., Ltd., has an annual output of 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 150,000 tons of dimethyl ether coal chemical project. On December 6, 2010, it produced synthetic ammonia, methanol and dimethyl ether products and entered the trial production stage. It plans to produce 190,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 100,000 tons of dimethyl ether in 11 years. The wholly-owned subsidiary Guizhou Jinke Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 520,000 tons of urea and 300,000 tons of methanol and coal chemical projects. The project has completed a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan in the year, with an accumulated investment of 4.574 billion yuan. The field level project has been completed and the equipment has been installed. Near the end, it is expected that the installation will be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2011, entering the commissioning and commissioning stage.
As the new coal chemical projects are officially put into operation, the company's production capacity and sales revenue will increase substantially. Relevant regulations of the relevant state departments on the suppression of overcapacity and redundant construction in certain industries have greatly increased the barriers to entry for coal chemical projects, and are also good for the company's coal chemical projects.
(3) Yanzi Coal Mine will reduce the cost of the company's coal chemical project. An important feature of coal chemical projects is that there is water and coal. Guizhou boasts abundant water resources. The company's coal chemical project occupies an advanced position in water resources. The company holds a 49% stake in Yanzi Coal Mine with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons. It can solve the coal supply of coal chemical project by 1/3, which is a significant drop in the cost of coal chemical projects.
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