EIA: Short-term energy outlook in October will ease

Eia expects that the pace of growth in global crude oil consumption in 2011 will slow down. At the same time, there will be an increase in supply, which will lead to a relaxation of the crude oil market's originally tight situation. Although the tight market supply and demand situation has eased, eia insisted that the global crude oil market this year and next year still need to rely on the consumption of inventory to meet the growth in demand.

The global crude oil and liquid fuel consumption eia predicts that the daily average consumption of crude oil and liquid fuels worldwide will continue to increase from the record high of 87.10 million barrels in 2010. By 2011 and 2012, they will reach 88.4 million barrels and 89.8 million barrels respectively. .

Non-OPEC countries are expected to supply eia. In 2011 and 2012, non-OPEC countries will increase their daily average production of crude oil and liquid fuel by 490,000 barrels and 850,000 barrels respectively. By 2012, the average daily output will reach 53.1 million barrels. . The areas with the largest increase in average daily production are Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Kazakhstan, and the United States. The average daily output growth of each country will exceed 100,000 barrels. In contrast, production in Russia, Mexico, and the North Sea will decline.

The supply of OPEC's eia member countries is expected that in 2011, opec's average daily output of crude oil will be reduced by 30,000 barrels per day, which is quite different from the forecast value of last month. Last month, eia expects opec's average daily output of crude oil to decrease by 36%. Millions of barrels. The large difference between the two was mainly due to the increase in Saudi production. The country’s average daily output increased from 9.1 million barrels in the second quarter to 9.9 million barrels in the third quarter. Eia believes that before the end of 2012, Libya's average daily production of crude oil will return to its pre-war level. The recovery of some of Libya’s production will contribute to the 2012 annual output growth of opec of 270,000 barrels per day. Eia expects opec’s average daily remaining capacity to decline from 4 million barrels in 4Q10 to 2.8 million barrels in 4Q11, but due to Libya's remaining capacity to return to the market, this will lead to average daily surplus at the end of 2012. Capacity increased to 3.5 million barrels.

Oecd oil stocks eia forecast that in 2011 and 2012, oecd crude oil commercial inventories will show a declining trend. The inventory depletion days (all inventories divided by the average daily consumption) will decrease slightly but remain at relatively high levels. The figure will drop from 58 days in 4Q2010 to 57 days in 4Q2011, and by the end of 2012 The number of days consumed in inventory will further decline to 56 days.

Crude oil price wti crude spot price fell from US$97/barrel in July to US$86/barrel in August and September. In early October, the price of WTI was once less than 80 US dollars/barrel. Compared with last month's report, eia revised down the estimated price of crude oil. Eia estimates that the average purchase cost of crude oil for US refineries will be US$99/barrel and US$98/barrel respectively in the current year and the next two years, compared with US$100/barrel and US$103/barrel respectively for the previous month.

The price discount between wti and other regions of the United States and global crude oil is expected to continue until the bottleneck of crude oil transportation from the central region to the Gulf of Mexico is resolved. Therefore, in 2011 and 2012, the U.S. crude oil refining cost will be 7 U.S. dollars per barrel and 10 dollars per barrel respectively.

All energy price forecasts have great uncertainty. For the first five days ended October 6, 2011, the average price of wti** due in December 2011 was US$79/barrel with an implied volatility of 51%. At the 95% confidence interval, the monthly average and the upper limit of the monthly average price of wti crude oil in December were US$57/barrel and US$110/barrel, respectively.