The Chinese aluminum electrolysis industry has achieved remarkable results under the promotion of the national macro-control policy, and it is developing toward the desired goal. The situation is gratifying. The number of aluminum plants under construction has been reduced from 152 to 119, and by the end of 2005, there is a possibility of further reduction to about 100. In 2004, the output of primary aluminum was 6670 kt, and apparent consumption was 6020 kt. It was estimated that about 634 kt of imported aluminum and aluminum products would be imported in 2004. The export volume would be about 825 kt, and the net export would be 191 kt, which translates into 95% conversion to primary aluminum, equivalent to The net export of aluminum ingots was 182 kt, which means that the actual domestic demand for primary aluminum ingots in China in 2004 was 5,838 kt. China has become a net exporter of aluminum and aluminum products, and is a net importer only in the area of ​​high-precision aluminum strips. It is predicted that the demand for primary aluminum in China from 2005 to 2010 will be: 6900kt in 2005, 8000kt in 2006, 9500kt in 2007, 10900kt in 2008, 12500kt in 2009, 13800kt in 2010, and the primary aluminum production capacity in China in 2004 is 9,700kt/a. The rate is 92%, then the actual output is 9000kt. This means that if there is no increase in new production capacity, China may become a net importer of primary aluminum ingots in 2007. Imports of original aluminum ingots Export of aluminum and aluminum products is a development trend Importing aluminum ingots from exporting aluminum and aluminum products is a good thing, and it is economically advantageous, especially for countries with energy shortages. First, the energy consumption for extracting one ton of primary aluminum is above 16500 kWh (including bauxite mining and alumina production), while the energy consumption for processing one ton of aluminum or aluminum products is only 1500 kWh, which is less than the energy consumption of primary aluminum extraction. One-tenth of the import of raw aluminum ingots is equivalent to imported energy. Why not? The author made statistics on the countries and regions where aluminum can be produced globally, 82% of which are net import countries and regions of the original aluminum ingots, such as Japan, South Korea, Belgium, Luxembourg, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong, China, Philippines, Malaysia, A ton of primary aluminum in Thailand, Argentina, Chile and Peru is also not produced, and the vast majority of them are net exporters of aluminum and aluminum products. Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the United States imported a portion of their original aluminum ingots and exported large quantities of aluminum and aluminum products. It can be seen that all imported raw aluminum ingots or part of the imported raw aluminum ingots processed and exported are common practice in industrialized countries. Energy, especially imported from countries rich in water and electricity, is beneficial for exporting aluminum ingots, such as Canada, Russia, Bahrain, and Iceland. Compared with imported alumina, imported aluminum ingots can greatly reduce environmental pollution. The process pollutant emissions of imported aluminum ingots processed aluminum are only about 6% of the pollutants emitted during the electrolytic aluminum process. The processing of raw aluminum ingots and/or further processing into aluminum products can produce significant economic benefits; some jobs can be solved, and under the current conditions in China, 250 staff members can be placed every year for producing 10 kt of aluminum. In the fourth quarter of 2004, processing fees for aluminum materials in the Midwestern United States were: 3003 alloy coils/US$·t-1 948 5052 alloy coils/US$·t-1 1036 6061-T alloy coils/US$·t-1 2447 2024-T alloy coil with US dollar t-1 5460 6061-T alloy plate / US dollar t-1 3064 household aluminum foil / US dollar t-1 1146 double zero packaging foil / US dollars t-1 2072 China imported in 2004 Most of the aluminum foil fleece CIF price per ton for the LME original aluminum ingot price plus 720 US dollars. In the early January of 2005, the price of American standard architectural aluminum profiles was US$3,196/t to US$3,307/t. Undoubtedly, investments are too concentrated. Capacity temporarily exceeds domestic demand Since the second half of 2003, investment in the aluminum processing industry has apparently been too concentrated, resulting in production capacity far exceeding domestic demand in the short term. By the end of 2005, the following production capacity (kt/a) will be achieved: There will be about 270 twin-roller strip continuous casting mills with a production capacity of about 2250 kt/a, of which nearly 30 will be put into production this year alone, and most It is a super-casting and rolling mill; 33 ingot hot-rolling production lines and hot-rolling mills (Taiwan), with a total production capacity of 1480 kt/a (including two-roll block hot-rolling mills), with a total production capacity of up to 3,520 kt/a in 2008; There are 106 four-high cold rolling mills, the total production capacity of cold-rolled strips is about 2800kt/a (including 300kt/a for two-roll block mills), 110 modern 4-roll aluminum foil mills, and the total production capacity is 936kt/a (including 2 Roller 39kt/a). There are about 20 sets of 16-wide, 1600mm to 1,850mm four-roll wide foil mills for the 2000mm wide-width foil mills that were put into operation or under construction this year. The construction of the extrusion industry is also making great strides. Like the strip industry, the extrusion industry has entered another construction period. The characteristics of this stage are: the production and construction of about 10 large extruders within a year; a large number of large-scale extrusion plants and high-quality extrusion plants that reach important scales are under construction or on one side of the construction side, such as the entire group of Jingge Group. Some 10 companies, such as the Automated Extrusion Plant, the Aluminum Group of Zhaoqing Aluminum of Yalu Group, the Sanshui Plant of Fenglu Aluminum Company, and the Sanshui Aluminum Company of Xingye Copper Aluminum Co., Ltd., have exceeded 50kt/a or reached 100kt/a scale; a group of export-oriented enterprises, mainly export products, are being formed or under construction. As with the cyclical changes in the price of primary aluminum ingots, the construction of aluminum processing companies or the formation of production capacity is also periodic or phased. This cycle is about 10 years. After the successful completion of the full load test of aluminum processing companies and construction projects in the first half of 2006, no matter whether the production capacity of nominal material (nameplate nameplate) or the production capacity of rolled strips, these are roughly 50 percent more than domestic actual demand. %. However, this over-concentration of production capacity is a manifestation of the imperfect development of China's socialist market economy in terms of investment. It is temporary. At the same time, the actual production capacity has a process, such as the hot rolling production line and the 2000mm aluminum foil unit. Production will take two to three years; in addition, the domestic market's demand for aluminum materials will increase at a rapid rate, and the average annual growth rate in the next four to five years will exceed 18%; at the same time, there will be a certain excess production capacity in the market economy, and of course there will be surpluses. There are degrees, this degree is not more than 25% is appropriate. Great potential in the domestic market If we only stare at the domestic consumption of aluminum, we will only circle the domestic market, and if we only balance the supply and demand around the domestic market, we will become more and more unbalanced. The more we calculate, the more we think of excess production capacity. It's incredibly big. The current production capacity that has been built and under construction is a bit more surplus. However, the work we should do is to explain the situation and the situation to investors, actively and timely reflect the situation and situation to the relevant government departments, and help the industry vigorously. Open up the domestic market. In fact, the domestic and foreign markets are very large. First, in the domestic market, China’s application of aluminum materials has not only failed to reach the international average, but the disparity with industrial developed countries is staggering. In 2004, the per capita primary aluminum consumption in the world was 5kg, while in China only 4.6kg, It is equivalent to only 1/4 of Japan's weakness. However, the per capita steel consumption in the world was 175kg in the same year, while in China it was 204kg, which exceeded 16.6% of the global per capita consumption. The average amount of aluminum used in Chinese cars is only about two-thirds that of industrially developed countries. In particular, the amount of aluminum used in vans is much lower than that in industrialized countries. The body of more than 92% of vans in the United States is aluminum. Huai, while China's aluminization rate is less than 2%. China is currently importing all of the aluminum used in aircraft components manufactured by Boeing Aircraft Company and Airbus. Chinese aluminum manufacturers have not done any work for promotion or application, or they have not taken the initiative to "attack," and they still do business there, waiting for customers to come to the door. However, some foreign companies have already entered the proactive phase. For example, in order to promote the application of some newly-developed aluminum alloys in aircraft, Alcoa sent a group of engineers to Boeing and Airbus to participate in the design of aircraft aluminum and aluminum components. Alcoa, Alcan, and Hydro Aluminium have already cooperated with automobile manufacturers to jointly develop the application of aluminum in automobiles, and set up corresponding automotive products and aluminum product R&D centers and sales companies to make some automobiles. Aluminum alloy parts are produced at aluminum processing plants, such as aluminum extrusion plants that make bumper systems that can be assembled. Looking at the international market is a brighter future. In the current global economic integration process is deepening, China's accession to the WTO and China's full market economy status has been gradually recognized by more and more countries, for the Chinese aluminum and aluminum products to enter the international market created Unprecedented superior conditions, as long as the product is well-to-market and good after-sales service can enter any country and region in the world. At the end of the last century, the household foil of Bohai Aluminum Co., Ltd. had once “swamped†the European market, causing anti-dumping lawsuits and losing due to various reasons and had to withdraw from the market. The pre-stretching slabs of Northeast Light Alloy Co., Ltd. and the aluminum strips of Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd. have long been popular in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The air-conditioning foils of Dingsheng Aluminum Co. Air Conditioning Foil Co., Ltd. has not entered the Japanese market known as the Air Quality Foil Quality Crown! Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd.'s die forged parts are equipped with a batch of batches of Boeing passenger planes. Xiamen Hanshun Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd.'s double-zero foils are exported to more than 20 countries and regions in the world. The export volume is better than one year in one year. . China is already a net exporter of extruded aluminum and aluminum doors and windows. As mentioned before, China is a net exporter of aluminum and aluminum products, but it is still not enough. First, because exports are not enough, not much. The 5% of output has huge potential; second, it does not sell a good price, and the price of the same product in the foreign market is about 20% lower than that of the industrialized countries. As long as we vigorously explore the international market, the production capacity of China's aluminum processing materials can be fully utilized without worrying about excessive production capacity. Investors are very smart. From 2006 onwards, over-investment in the aluminum processing industry will certainly ease. At present, the relevant departments and the media should do a better job, on the one hand, to clarify the current situation, on the other hand to do more work to open up the market, encourage exports, and provide more convenience and preferential conditions for the export of aluminum. Enterprises should improve the quality of their products. In particular, they must make greater efforts in the stability and consistency of product performance, and train a group of talents with international marketing knowledge and experience, including legal and anti-dumping talents. The experience of Jinqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. is worth learning from And promotion.
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