Standard Bank Ratings: Global Low Inventory Drives Price Rise (3-9)

• The base metal price has been entrenched at historical/cycle highs, supported by speculative buying and low (declining) inventory and tight supply. The steady decline in LME inventory reflects the decline in global inventories. The stocks of the entire supply chain of base metals copper and lead (producers, consumers, traders, and metal exchanges) are lower than the important three-week consumption levels, so the price will stab. For other metals, inventory is at a more appropriate level, but it is also falling towards key low levels. Copper: Technically, the second consecutive close below 3280. It now appears that the price may first be adjusted back to 3200 before the price breaks out. Aluminum: Technically, the next resistance in the overbought market is 2015-2020. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.

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