The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) next Tuesday (9th). Yesterday, the reporter comprehensively predicted the results of many research institutions and experts. It is basically expected that the CPI increase in July will be roughly the same as that in June. Some institutions even said that the July CPI will exceed the June high in June. In view of this, the market expects to raise interest rates again in August. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that after the CPI hit a new high in June, it is expected to continue to rise to around 6.5% in July, and the chain ratio will continue to be significantly higher than the historical normal level. CITIC Securities forecasts that the CPI growth in July will exceed 6.6% in June to 6.5%, and the PPI will exceed 7.3% in June to 7.3%. Soochow Securities also expects CPI to rise 6.5% year-on-year to 6.7% in July. Guotai Junan Securities forecast a 6.3% year-on-year increase in CPI, which was lower than the 6.4% increase in June. The report said that pork prices fell in the second week of July, and the total food price monitored by the Ministry of Commerce fell for the first time in the past month. The forecasts of institutions such as Northeast Securities are the same as those of Guotai Junan. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank's monetary policy has maintained the rhythm of “one month's approval†and “one month's rate hikeâ€, which has led the market to predict that the interest rate hike will be in August. A large securities institution trader believes that the open market continues to operate, and the operability of the reserve in the near future is not large. Lu political commissar said: "The possibility of a rate hike in August is very high. Anti-inflation is still the top priority. At present, the central bank has not loosened its monetary policy." Guotai Junan analyst Hu Da pointed out that the central bank's new changes in the wording of monetary policy. It is worthy of attention. In the short term, Hu Da said that the CPI growth rate is expected to reach 6.3% to 6.5% in July, and the central bank still has a large interest rate hike in August. Another brokerage analyst who did not want to be named also pointed out that the market's expectation that the CPI may slow down in the second half of the year may be defeated. It is expected that the CPI growth rate in July will be as high as 6.6%, again exceeding the June level. The analyst said that the central bank may still raise interest rates again in August.
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