In recent years, either photovoltaic or wind power, are plunged into the cold abyss, overcapacity, the international financial crisis, European and American "double reverse", abandoned wind power rationing ...... wave after wave of cold, so get stuck in Businesses are struggling. The good news is that both wind and photovoltaic are in 20...
In recent years, both photovoltaics and wind power have fallen into the cold abyss, overcapacity, the international financial crisis, the "double opposition" in Europe and the United States, the abandonment of wind and electricity ... a wave of cold, let the enterprises trapped in it Struggling. The good news is that both wind power and photovoltaics have seen a warming trend in 2013.
The photovoltaic industry has clearly recovered. In the second quarter of 2013, many companies turned losses into profits. In the third quarter, more companies reported earnings. The wind power industry has also shown signs of recovery. Many wind power companies have bid farewell to the long-standing downturn. The third quarter of 2013, net profit growth has basically turned positive.
Experts said that wind power and photovoltaic industry will develop steadily in 2014, and nuclear energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy will also usher in new opportunities.
Policy boosts new energy development
From May to June 2013, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress launched the first law enforcement inspection since the implementation of the Renewable Energy Law. The "Report on the Implementation of the Review of the Renewable Energy Law" submitted by the Law Enforcement Inspection Team of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress pointed out that there are many departments involved in the development of renewable energy, and the functions of relevant departments are intersected. There is no coordination mechanism for unified coordination, unified promotion, and unified supervision. The relevant policies are not well coordinated, and some industrial developments are subject to institutional constraints. In addition, wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and hydropower have problems of sending and receiving. The problem of “abandoning wind†is the most serious. In 2012, it reached 20.8 billion kWh, accounting for about 17% of the actual power generation. At the same time, the survey found that there are many problems in the implementation of renewable energy tariff subsidies.
According to reports, due to insufficient funds and complicated administrative procedures, the delay in the issuance of renewable energy tariff subsidies is getting longer and longer. It is considered “timely†to delay the subsidy for one year. “Although the accounts are receivables, they are not available in the short term, which is insufficient to support the cash flow of the project. Many PV power plants are connected to the grid at the end of 2011, but some subsidies will not be available until the end of 2013. In theory, enterprises have The risk of bankruptcy," an industry source said.
On August 31, 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Adjusting the Additional Standards for Renewable Energy Price and Environmental Protection Electricity Priceâ€, requiring that, in addition to residential life and agricultural production, be used from September 25, 2013. Other electricity renewable energy tariffs have been raised from 0.8 cents per kWh to 1.5 cents. According to estimates, this will increase the renewable energy development fund by 30 billion yuan, which can effectively alleviate the issue of subsidies for renewable energy funds and provide "power" for various types of renewable energy development.
In September 2013, the State Council issued the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan", proposing the active and orderly development of hydropower, the development and utilization of geothermal energy, wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and the safe and efficient development of nuclear power. By 2017, the capacity of nuclear power plant assembly machines will reach 50 million kilowatts, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 13%. This brings new opportunities for the development of renewable energy.
Photovoltaic breakthrough in the dark
In order to let the photovoltaic industry get out of the trough as soon as possible, from the second half of 2012, the state has intensively introduced a series of support policies. In particular, the “Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†promulgated by the State Council in July 2013 not only clearly stated that by 2015, the total installed capacity of domestic PV will reach 35 GW or more, and the domestic installed capacity will be expanded on a large scale, and it will be connected to the grid. Land acquisition, subsidies and other links have intensively and meticulously given many breakthrough policy measures, so that the industry's confidence has doubled.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the report on the operation of China's PV industry in the first half of 2013. Due to the combination of policy guidance and market-driven factors, China's polysilicon production rebounded month by month in the first half of 2013, and some battery companies' operations have improved. The photovoltaic market has steadily expanded, and the development of the photovoltaic industry has improved compared with the same period in 2012. The overall situation of the industry has stabilized.
According to the second quarter 2013 financial report released by Jingke Energy, the total revenue of Jingke Energy in the second quarter of 2013 was 1.76 billion yuan, and the net profit was 49 million yuan, while the net loss in the first quarter of 2013 was 128.7 million yuan. The net loss for the second quarter was $310.5 billion.
In the third quarter of 2013, Jinke Energy's gross profit margin further increased, and other leading companies, Artes Solar and Trina Solar, also turned losses into profits. Although Yingli New Energy and Daxin Energy still failed to get rid of the loss, the loss rate narrowed significantly, and both companies' shipments and revenues increased significantly.
“Although the industry is very exciting, in fact, in the second quarter of 2013, only a small number of PV companies were profitable, and the third quarter earnings were more, and the fourth quarter earnings companies will be more.†China Renewable Energy Association Chairman of the Board of Directors, Meng Xianyu said.
In the fourth quarter of 2013, there will be a relatively rapid growth in the installed capacity of domestic PV power plants. In addition, the launch of domestic distributed power plants in 2014 will further increase the PV orders, which will lead to the improvement of enterprise shipments and gross profit margin, and will show obvious sustainability. .
Wind power industry likes to see "warm winter"
In the third quarter of 2013, many wind power companies bid farewell to the long-standing downturn, and the net profit growth rate has basically turned positive. After a few years of trough, the wind power industry has finally shown signs of recovery.
Goldwind's 2013 third quarter report showed that the company achieved operating income of 7.12 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2013, a year-on-year increase of 19.72%, and achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 187 million yuan, an increase of 387.97%. Sinovel's revenue in 2013 also improved. The accumulated revenue in the first three quarters was about 2 billion yuan, which was a significant drop from the 3.6 billion yuan in the same period in 2012. However, the revenue in July-September 2013 reached 626 million yuan. Compared with 547 million yuan in the same period of 2012, it increased by nearly 15%.
The wind power industry is showing signs of recovery, which is inseparable from the country's strong support. In 2013, the state issued a series of policies to support wind power grid-connected and promote the healthy development of wind power. In February, March and May 2013, the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job of Wind Power Integration and Consumption in 2013†​​and the “Third Five-Year Plan for the Third Batch of Wind Power Projectsâ€. Notice on Strengthening the Construction of Monitoring and Evaluation System for Wind Power Industry.
According to the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration, the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Wind Power Industry" has been reported to the State Council, and the support is no less than the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry". At present, the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" has already achieved remarkable results. The photovoltaic industry has been fully warmed up, so the support for the wind power industry is expected by the industry.
"In recent years, a number of wind turbine enterprises lacking technical strength and innovative ability have been eliminated. This has objectively improved the quality level of the entire wind power industry in China, improved the status quo of serious overcapacity in the whole industry, and improved the healthy development level of the industry." Yao Xiaoqin, a senior member of the Wind Energy Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said.
Wu Gang, chairman of Goldwind Technology Co., Ltd. said that after a round of industry low tide and quality trend, wind power investors have become more mature and professional. They not only purchase equipment, but also set up their own testing centers to purchase equipment. Conducting rigorous experiments and testing, and finally forming a standard as an important basis for equipment bidding, "this forces wind turbine manufacturers to continuously improve product quality."
2014 new energy welcomes new opportunities
Controlling and reducing the total consumption of fossil energy and increasing the proportion of clean energy use are inevitable requirements for building a beautiful China. It is also the goal of optimizing the energy structure and building a safe, stable, economic and clean modern energy industry system.
According to the plan of the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan, by 2017, the installed capacity of nuclear power assembly machines will reach 50 million kilowatts, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 13%. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development" issued by the State Council proposes that by 2015, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 11.4%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity will reach 30%.
However, at present, China's renewable energy accounts for a relatively small proportion. In the first two years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the cumulative increase in the proportion of renewable energy consumption was only 0.5 percentage points, and the task of achieving the goal of non-fossil energy accounting for 11.4% in 2015 was arduous.
In terms of non-fossil energy power generation, in 2012, China's total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 7 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of wind turbines reached 60.83 million kilowatts. In that year, China's total installed power capacity exceeded 1.1 billion kilowatts. From this point of view, achieving China's non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity of 30% in 2015 is an arduous task, and it is also an exciting opportunity for renewable energy. Looking ahead to 2014, a new wave of development of new energy will come.
“The large-scale opening of the domestic distributed installation market in 2014 is foreseeable, which will bring huge impetus to the development of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry. The momentum of the recovery of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry will continue. It is expected that most PV companies will achieve profitability in 2014. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said, "But the entire PV industry will need two or three years to successfully transform and upgrade and achieve healthy and sustainable development."
"The photovoltaic industry has indeed emerged from the extreme dilemma of 2012. It has already passed a turning point. The whole industry has begun to improve. The development momentum in 2014 is relatively optimistic." Meng Xianyu also said that due to the low tide of the past two years, the photovoltaic enterprises The debt is still high. Only the debts of Suntech and Saiwei are as high as several tens of billions of yuan. The total debt of the top ten PV companies in the country exceeds 100 billion yuan. This is a heavy burden and must be completely reversed. It may take another two or three years to achieve a healthy prosperity.
In 2014, wind power will usher in a period of steady growth. Goldwind Technology released a report saying that the wind power equipment industry is in a period of slow recovery. It is expected that the development in 2014 and 2015 will maintain stable and slow growth, with an average annual installed capacity of 15 GW.
“After eight years of explosive growth in China's wind power industry, an adjustment period is needed. The slowdown in growth can allow companies to re-examine capacity expansion over the past few years and close redundant capacity. At the same time, slower development will also help solve the grid system. , quality control, health and safety issues," said Li Junfeng, director of the Renewable Energy Professional Committee of China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association.
In terms of nuclear power, the total installed capacity of nuclear power plants currently under construction and under construction in China is less than 46 million kilowatts. According to the plan, the capacity of nuclear power assembly machines will reach 50 million kilowatts by 2017, and nuclear power will usher in major development opportunities.
The shale gas industry has recently ushered in a major opportunity. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "Shale Gas Industry Policy" to further improve the development status of shale gas and incorporate shale gas development into the national strategic emerging industries. According to industry insiders, the development of shale gas is listed as a strategic emerging industry. It is not only a major strategy for the country to seize the new round of economic and technological development, but also shows the determination and confidence of China in developing shale gas.
In addition, new energy sources such as geothermal energy and biomass energy will also catch up with this wave of development. Optimize the energy structure and build a safe, stable, economic and clean modern energy industry system. In 2014, new energy will usher in new development opportunities.
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