I. Overview of the event
A few days ago, we conducted an investigation on Antai Technology, and learned about the company's current operating conditions, the company's future development strategy and industry developments. Through communication with the company's management, we believe that the company's technical strength is strong, downstream demand is growing steadily, and capacity expansion continues. In the next two years, we should continue to pay attention to the company's amorphous strip and the expansion of other products' capacity.
Second, analysis and judgment
Strong technical strength, will enter the next round of expansion cycle
The company inherits 50 years of scientific research strength of China Steel Research and Technology Group Corporation, with strong technical strength, mainly based on advanced metal materials. Due to the wide range of research fields, there are many corresponding products, including four categories: superhard and refractory materials, functional materials, fine metal products and biomedical materials.
The company maintained revenue growth for three consecutive years, mainly due to the continuous expansion of production capacity of multiple projects. Three high-speed tool steels, diamonds and amorphous strips have been put into production in 2006. In 2009, the convertible bond project was put into special alloy project, and it is expected to start production at the beginning of next year. The company's multi-products still have expansion plans. According to the announcement on December 15, the company will invest in five projects including refractory materials, welding materials, powder metallurgy, nanocrystalline strips and large-scale hot isostatic construction. The construction period is about 2 years. The company's production capacity is about to enter the next round of expansion cycle.
Amorphous strip production capacity expansion is clear, expected to produce 2.5 tons next year
Amorphous strips have excellent properties such as high magnetic permeability, high electrical resistivity, high magnetic sensitivity and corrosion resistance. In the field of small-sized transformers in power distribution systems, they are gradually replacing traditionally oriented silicon steel transformers. The energy consumption is about 60%~70 of silicon steel transformers. %, the national grid transformation in the next 2-3 years will bring greater demand growth for amorphous transformers.
The company's amorphous ribbon currently has a capacity of 40,000 tons, ranking second in the world, second only to Hitachi Metals; this year's output of amorphous materials is about 10,000 tons. The main problem in actual production is that the finished product rate is not high. At present, the company is working on solving this technical problem. It is expected that there will be a breakthrough next year and the production capacity will increase exponentially, which is expected to reach 2.5 tons. The amorphous strip project will continue to receive strong support from the national policy, and the production capacity will be further expanded. It is expected to increase to 100,000 tons in the next 2-3 years.
High-speed tool steel and diamond products are expected to grow by 40% and 20% respectively next year.
1) High-speed tool steel: The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is the second largest manufacturer of high-speed tool steel in China. Since the beginning of this year, its revenue has doubled, from about 30 million to 60 million. At present, the annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of high-speed tool steel and 200 tons of powder high-speed steel has increased capacity. The construction of the plant has been completed. However, due to the fact that the power system of the park has not yet been supplied, it is expected to be postponed until full operation in early 2011. After the power problem of the new district construction is resolved early next year, the production capacity will be released, and the income is expected to reach 85 million yuan.
2) Diamond saw blades: The current output is about 4 to 5 million pieces per year. About 90% of the diamond products are exported to the United States and Europe. The competitors are mainly from South Korea. The growth rate has reached 50% this year. The current production capacity has doubled compared to 2006. At present, the competitive advantage of diamond materials is mainly due to the low tax rate exported to the United States. The company has the lowest anti-dumping tax on diamond saw blades originating in China and South Korea, which is 2.82%. The competitive advantage is obvious. It is expected to maintain the tax rate next year. The diamond business revenue growth is expected to increase by 20%.
Welding materials are affected by downstream influences, and the profit will decrease by 10% next year.
At present, the company's flux-cored wire project has a production capacity of about 30,000 tons. The main downstream is shipbuilding. Due to the fact that the downstream shipyards have not fully recovered this year, the company's flux-cored wire orders have decreased, and this business has been affected by the rise in steel prices. This year, the company contributed less profit. At present, the company has a complete welding material production base. In the future, the company will focus on special soldering and adjust the drug structure to improve the product structure. It is expected that the shipbuilding industry will recover in the next year, and welding materials will increase by about 10% next year.
Third, profit forecast and investment advice
The company's technology level is leading, multi-project product capacity will continue to expand, and will enter the next round of capacity expansion cycle. This year, the expansion of amorphous ribbons is clear, but there are still some bottlenecks in production technology. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 25,000 tons next year. It is estimated that the earnings per share from 2010 to 2012 are 0.26, 0.34 and 0.47 yuan respectively, corresponding to a 2011 P/E ratio of 85-90 times, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 28.90 yuan to 30.60 yuan. We are optimistic about the increase in profit from the company's capacity expansion. However, due to the current problems in the production of amorphous strip and the relatively high valuation of the magnetic material sub-sector, the company has given the company a “cautious recommendation†rating for the first time.
Fourth, risk tips
1) The impact of shrinking overseas market demand; 2) The impact of RMB appreciation; 3) Too many types of business impose certain requirements on the company's management capabilities; 4) The rate of amorphous ribbons is slowly increasing.
A few days ago, we conducted an investigation on Antai Technology, and learned about the company's current operating conditions, the company's future development strategy and industry developments. Through communication with the company's management, we believe that the company's technical strength is strong, downstream demand is growing steadily, and capacity expansion continues. In the next two years, we should continue to pay attention to the company's amorphous strip and the expansion of other products' capacity.
Second, analysis and judgment
Strong technical strength, will enter the next round of expansion cycle
The company inherits 50 years of scientific research strength of China Steel Research and Technology Group Corporation, with strong technical strength, mainly based on advanced metal materials. Due to the wide range of research fields, there are many corresponding products, including four categories: superhard and refractory materials, functional materials, fine metal products and biomedical materials.
The company maintained revenue growth for three consecutive years, mainly due to the continuous expansion of production capacity of multiple projects. Three high-speed tool steels, diamonds and amorphous strips have been put into production in 2006. In 2009, the convertible bond project was put into special alloy project, and it is expected to start production at the beginning of next year. The company's multi-products still have expansion plans. According to the announcement on December 15, the company will invest in five projects including refractory materials, welding materials, powder metallurgy, nanocrystalline strips and large-scale hot isostatic construction. The construction period is about 2 years. The company's production capacity is about to enter the next round of expansion cycle.
Amorphous strip production capacity expansion is clear, expected to produce 2.5 tons next year
Amorphous strips have excellent properties such as high magnetic permeability, high electrical resistivity, high magnetic sensitivity and corrosion resistance. In the field of small-sized transformers in power distribution systems, they are gradually replacing traditionally oriented silicon steel transformers. The energy consumption is about 60%~70 of silicon steel transformers. %, the national grid transformation in the next 2-3 years will bring greater demand growth for amorphous transformers.
The company's amorphous ribbon currently has a capacity of 40,000 tons, ranking second in the world, second only to Hitachi Metals; this year's output of amorphous materials is about 10,000 tons. The main problem in actual production is that the finished product rate is not high. At present, the company is working on solving this technical problem. It is expected that there will be a breakthrough next year and the production capacity will increase exponentially, which is expected to reach 2.5 tons. The amorphous strip project will continue to receive strong support from the national policy, and the production capacity will be further expanded. It is expected to increase to 100,000 tons in the next 2-3 years.
High-speed tool steel and diamond products are expected to grow by 40% and 20% respectively next year.
1) High-speed tool steel: The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is the second largest manufacturer of high-speed tool steel in China. Since the beginning of this year, its revenue has doubled, from about 30 million to 60 million. At present, the annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of high-speed tool steel and 200 tons of powder high-speed steel has increased capacity. The construction of the plant has been completed. However, due to the fact that the power system of the park has not yet been supplied, it is expected to be postponed until full operation in early 2011. After the power problem of the new district construction is resolved early next year, the production capacity will be released, and the income is expected to reach 85 million yuan.
2) Diamond saw blades: The current output is about 4 to 5 million pieces per year. About 90% of the diamond products are exported to the United States and Europe. The competitors are mainly from South Korea. The growth rate has reached 50% this year. The current production capacity has doubled compared to 2006. At present, the competitive advantage of diamond materials is mainly due to the low tax rate exported to the United States. The company has the lowest anti-dumping tax on diamond saw blades originating in China and South Korea, which is 2.82%. The competitive advantage is obvious. It is expected to maintain the tax rate next year. The diamond business revenue growth is expected to increase by 20%.
Welding materials are affected by downstream influences, and the profit will decrease by 10% next year.
At present, the company's flux-cored wire project has a production capacity of about 30,000 tons. The main downstream is shipbuilding. Due to the fact that the downstream shipyards have not fully recovered this year, the company's flux-cored wire orders have decreased, and this business has been affected by the rise in steel prices. This year, the company contributed less profit. At present, the company has a complete welding material production base. In the future, the company will focus on special soldering and adjust the drug structure to improve the product structure. It is expected that the shipbuilding industry will recover in the next year, and welding materials will increase by about 10% next year.
Third, profit forecast and investment advice
The company's technology level is leading, multi-project product capacity will continue to expand, and will enter the next round of capacity expansion cycle. This year, the expansion of amorphous ribbons is clear, but there are still some bottlenecks in production technology. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 25,000 tons next year. It is estimated that the earnings per share from 2010 to 2012 are 0.26, 0.34 and 0.47 yuan respectively, corresponding to a 2011 P/E ratio of 85-90 times, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 28.90 yuan to 30.60 yuan. We are optimistic about the increase in profit from the company's capacity expansion. However, due to the current problems in the production of amorphous strip and the relatively high valuation of the magnetic material sub-sector, the company has given the company a “cautious recommendation†rating for the first time.
Fourth, risk tips
1) The impact of shrinking overseas market demand; 2) The impact of RMB appreciation; 3) Too many types of business impose certain requirements on the company's management capabilities; 4) The rate of amorphous ribbons is slowly increasing.
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