The price of minerals is unlikely to continue to rise. In addition to the high level of iron ore stocks and the decline in domestic steel prices, the price of minerals will continue to decline.
Although prices continue to rise, China's iron ore imports are still growing. Yesterday, China Customs preliminary statistics, China imported 48.64 million tons of iron ore in February, down 29% from January's 68.97 million tons, up 4.1% from the same period in 2010. At the same time, the import volume of 117.6 million tons in January and February this year increased by 23% compared with last year.
The price of imported iron ore is also accompanied by the increase in imports. According to the statistics of the famous domestic steel spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen, the average import price of iron ore in China in February was 158.40 US dollars / ton, which was 6.99 US dollars / ton more than the price of 151.41 US dollars / ton in January, an increase of 4.62%. This means that the profits of Chinese steel companies have to be eroded again by “crazy stonesâ€.
Imports in February are actually not low
Although the ring fell sharply in January, in the view of Hu Kai, a joint metal network analyst, China’s iron ore imports were not low in February. “First, there are factors for the Spring Festival in February, compared with daily average data, February and Import data in January was similar; secondly, most of the iron ore imports in February came from contracts signed between steel companies and miners in December or January last year."
However, Zhang Lin, an analyst at Lange Steel, told the International Finance News that compared with the end of last year and January this year, the iron ore trading market in February has been deserted, so the sharp drop is expected.
Analysts also found that China's crude steel production is also rising in tandem with iron ore imports. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Steel Association") reported that in the middle of February this year, the national crude steel output was 1,800,400 tons, a significant increase from the 1.73 million tons in January. At that time, the joint metal network analyst Hu Yanping used "exceeding expectations" to describe the recovery of crude steel production.
“This may explain the linkage between crude steel production and iron ore imports, but China does not lack iron ore at all,†an industry source said. Data show that as of last week, China's major ports imported 80.79 million tons of iron ore stocks, which remained at a high level. This can meet the demand for raw materials for Chinese steel companies for two months.
"The rising import volume does not rule out the speculation of some traders." Hu Kai said.
The price of minerals continues to fall in the short term
"Iron ore is the lifeline that affects the survival and loss of enterprises." Wu Xinchun, deputy secretary-general of China Steel Association, used this sentence to describe the problems encountered by Chinese steel enterprises. As for the import price of minerals in February, this "difficulties" will continue.
“Now it seems that Chinese steel companies’ profits will be compressed in February.†Zhang Lin and Hu Kaijun believe that “in the short term, the situation of meager profits and even losses will continue. In particular, the three major iron ore suppliers have recently increased their The second quarter agreement offer."
The good news is that spot iron ore prices have started to fall. According to statistics from Lange Steel, the 63.5% Indian powder mine of the market “wind vane†has dropped from a high of nearly US$200/ton to US$180/ton.
"The spot price will go down." Zhang Lin said frankly, because domestic steel prices have fallen. According to the monitoring of the Nishimoto Shinkansen, its steel price index of 4680 on March 10 fell by nearly 90 points from the index of 4790 on February 28.
Hu Kai also believes that the "fundamental" of spot mine prices is not good, "the price of minerals is unlikely to continue to rise, coupled with the high level of iron ore stocks and the decline of domestic steel prices, the price of minerals will continue to decline. It can be expected that The mine price will fall back in the third quarter."
Wu Xinchun said earlier that in 2011, the supply of iron ore will be tight and loose, and the price will be high and low. He also pointed out that the current import price of "blowing too high" is expected to fall in March or April.
Although prices continue to rise, China's iron ore imports are still growing. Yesterday, China Customs preliminary statistics, China imported 48.64 million tons of iron ore in February, down 29% from January's 68.97 million tons, up 4.1% from the same period in 2010. At the same time, the import volume of 117.6 million tons in January and February this year increased by 23% compared with last year.
The price of imported iron ore is also accompanied by the increase in imports. According to the statistics of the famous domestic steel spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen, the average import price of iron ore in China in February was 158.40 US dollars / ton, which was 6.99 US dollars / ton more than the price of 151.41 US dollars / ton in January, an increase of 4.62%. This means that the profits of Chinese steel companies have to be eroded again by “crazy stonesâ€.
Imports in February are actually not low
Although the ring fell sharply in January, in the view of Hu Kai, a joint metal network analyst, China’s iron ore imports were not low in February. “First, there are factors for the Spring Festival in February, compared with daily average data, February and Import data in January was similar; secondly, most of the iron ore imports in February came from contracts signed between steel companies and miners in December or January last year."
However, Zhang Lin, an analyst at Lange Steel, told the International Finance News that compared with the end of last year and January this year, the iron ore trading market in February has been deserted, so the sharp drop is expected.
Analysts also found that China's crude steel production is also rising in tandem with iron ore imports. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Steel Association") reported that in the middle of February this year, the national crude steel output was 1,800,400 tons, a significant increase from the 1.73 million tons in January. At that time, the joint metal network analyst Hu Yanping used "exceeding expectations" to describe the recovery of crude steel production.
“This may explain the linkage between crude steel production and iron ore imports, but China does not lack iron ore at all,†an industry source said. Data show that as of last week, China's major ports imported 80.79 million tons of iron ore stocks, which remained at a high level. This can meet the demand for raw materials for Chinese steel companies for two months.
"The rising import volume does not rule out the speculation of some traders." Hu Kai said.
The price of minerals continues to fall in the short term
"Iron ore is the lifeline that affects the survival and loss of enterprises." Wu Xinchun, deputy secretary-general of China Steel Association, used this sentence to describe the problems encountered by Chinese steel enterprises. As for the import price of minerals in February, this "difficulties" will continue.
“Now it seems that Chinese steel companies’ profits will be compressed in February.†Zhang Lin and Hu Kaijun believe that “in the short term, the situation of meager profits and even losses will continue. In particular, the three major iron ore suppliers have recently increased their The second quarter agreement offer."
The good news is that spot iron ore prices have started to fall. According to statistics from Lange Steel, the 63.5% Indian powder mine of the market “wind vane†has dropped from a high of nearly US$200/ton to US$180/ton.
"The spot price will go down." Zhang Lin said frankly, because domestic steel prices have fallen. According to the monitoring of the Nishimoto Shinkansen, its steel price index of 4680 on March 10 fell by nearly 90 points from the index of 4790 on February 28.
Hu Kai also believes that the "fundamental" of spot mine prices is not good, "the price of minerals is unlikely to continue to rise, coupled with the high level of iron ore stocks and the decline of domestic steel prices, the price of minerals will continue to decline. It can be expected that The mine price will fall back in the third quarter."
Wu Xinchun said earlier that in 2011, the supply of iron ore will be tight and loose, and the price will be high and low. He also pointed out that the current import price of "blowing too high" is expected to fall in March or April.
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