The four factors of bad natural rubber prices

Affected by many negative factors at home and abroad, natural rubber prices continued to fall sharply unilaterally and hit new lows in recent days. The Tokyo Rubber Index fell from 540 yen/kg on February 18 to 407 yen/kg on March 9 and fell 133 yen/kg, a relative decrease of 24.63%; Hujiao RU1105** The price fell from the high of 4,395 yuan (ton price, the same below) on February 9th to the low of 35,605 yuan on March 10th, with a cumulative decrease of 7,895 yuan, with a relative decrease of 18.15%. Since the price of natural rubber runs at a historically high level in the mid- to long-term, it is sensitive to bearishness, but it is dull to the bullish tone. Although the market outlook does not rule out the possibility of a technical rebound, the medium-term downward trend will continue.

The main factors for domestic and foreign negative factors are as follows:

First, the recent Middle East region, especially the major crude oil producing countries in the world, Libya's political turmoil caused serious concerns about the tight supply of crude oil in the world. As a result, crude oil prices rose sharply and exceeded 100 US dollars/barrel. The sharp rise in oil prices triggered global concerns about further deterioration of inflation and the economic situation. The speculative funds in the natural rubber market were willing to weaken their willingness to do more, and their willingness to make shorts was strengthened, causing natural rubber to rise and fall.

Second, the country’s “**” emphasizes protecting people’s livelihood, curbing inflation, and controlling price increases. The price of natural rubber as a commodity continues to rise, reaching a historical high of more than RMB 40,000, and is subject to more severe regulation and suppression.

Third, the natural rubber market and spot prices continue to rise, so that the interests of the upstream and downstream industrial chain from the tires and the automotive industry in the upper reaches of the upstream greatly shifting planting industries, tire and automotive industries affected by raw material prices, operating difficulties. Tire manufacturers have asked the relevant state departments to sell reserve stocks, and drastically reduce the import tariffs on natural rubber, and gradually strengthen the above-mentioned negative expectations. The pressure on natural rubber market prices will increase.

Fourth, the natural rubber ** market shows the trend of weakening potential. Although the current price of natural rubber ** price discount on the spot price, but ** prices fell further, will lead to a weakening of the spot price linkage, the city's natural rubber prices will be both operating in the downlink channel.

In addition, the current value of natural rubber in the middle and late off-season, the future of natural rubber supply will be increased by the season, the spot pressure gradually increased, the spot price will drop seasonally. Moreover, the global currencies have raised interest rates to withstand inflationary pressures. Although the US dollar has fluctuated at a low level, the interest rate hike pressure has also become heavier. Once the US dollar rises, it will trigger an increase in its currency value. This is the spot price for natural rubber in international markets denominated in US dollars. Compression effect.