Hardware companies in 2011 are faced with multiple difficulties, power shortages, money shortages, the central bank raised interest rates again, the tide of bankruptcy is coming, facing the big environment, hardware companies should understand the Chinese economy and make corresponding preparations. Half of the time has passed in 2011. Here, it is necessary to analyze the direction of China's economy in the next six months based on the economic policies and performance in the first half of the year. In general, the author believes that due to the high-end consumption is still strong, the construction of affordable housing and the construction of a large number of infrastructure in the “12th Five-Year Plan†year will drive the growth of investment, and the risk of “hard landing†in China will be small in the second half of the year. However, as pork prices, which account for a higher CPI weight, are still rising, non-food prices are also entering the fastest period of history, and inflation peaks may be delayed until the third quarter. Anti-inflation will continue to be the main task of economic work this year, and tightening monetary policy needs to be adhered to. On the other hand, in terms of tightening monetary policy, there will be appropriate fine-tuning, that is, preferential pricing tools that have less impact on economic growth and more anti-inflation effects. The author expects that the central bank will raise interest rates at least twice before the end of this year, and the reserve ratio will increase. In the following, the author will conduct a detailed analysis of the policy fine-tuning that needs to be made in the second half of the year, from the aspects of “dollars and foreigners†and “policy internal worriesâ€. First, the weak dollar increases China's foreign countries The economic trend of Europe and the United States, the progress of the debt crisis, and the tightness of monetary policy are the focus of the overseas economy in the second half of the year, and also the key to China's export situation, the trend of the renminbi and China's imported inflation. By comparing and analyzing the key indicators in Europe and the United States, the author expects that the US dollar will remain weak in the second half of the year due to the worrying US economic data and the fact that the US debt situation is far worse than the European and European spreads. As the world's most important reserve currency, the US dollar's continued over-exposure and depreciation will be the main external dilemma facing China. 1. Comparison 1: US economic recovery is weaker than expected Since the first quarter of this year, the US economic growth rate has shown a downward trend. Real GDP growth rate increased by 1.9% year-on-year, weaker than the 3.1% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Private consumption, employment, and real estate data are frustrating. In May, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by only 54,000, the lowest level in nearly eight months; the unemployment rate rose from 9% to 9.1%. Affected by factors such as high unemployment rate and high housing foreclosure rate, the US real estate recovery is still weak, and it still continues the weak situation of “price dropâ€. The recovery of the core countries in the euro zone is stable, especially Germany will continue to play the role of the "locomotive" of economic growth in the euro zone. Due to the strong export, Germany's domestic spending and employment situation is more optimistic. The IMF had earlier predicted that Germany's GDP would reach 3.2% this year. 2. Comparison 2: The US debt situation is far worse than Europe. Reducing the budget and reducing debt are the top priorities of the United States. The current proportion of US Treasury bonds to GDP has approached 100%, which is higher than the proportion of 80% in the Eurozone. The US fiscal deficit accounts for more than 10% of GDP, and is much higher than the 6% level in the Eurozone. At the same time, the US state governments and many municipal governments are also facing different levels of financial crisis. However, it is difficult for the White House and the Republican Party to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If the US government reduces spending accordingly, it will have a negative impact on the US economy in the recovery. In Europe, as the euro zone countries cannot form a fiscal alliance, in the long run, the problem of fiscal inconsistency will always plague the settlement of the debt problem in southern Europe. But through the "new debt to the old debt," the Greek debt crisis can be delayed for 1-2 years. In the short term, Greece is less likely to restructure and exit the euro zone, and European problems will not break out. 3. Comparison 3: European and American spreads persist The Eurozone's inflation rate in May was 2.7%, although it was lower than April's 2.8%, but still much higher than the ECB's 2% target. After the "inflation warrior" Italian central bank governor Draghi succeeded the ECB president, the European Central Bank will take a step forward in the anti-inflation stance, and the possibility of raising interest rates still exists. In the US, although the US inflation rate reached 3.6% in May, its core inflation rate was only 1.5%. Although the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) will be withdrawn at the end of June, the poor economic data still does not rule out the possibility of QE3 launch. It is expected that the US interest rate hike will be postponed until 2012. The weak dollar may increase the pressure on commodity prices in the second half of the year. At the same time, the overseas economic trend is still unclear. The debt problem has caused panic in the market and has increased the difficulty of China's exports. At the same time, the increase in domestic labor and raw material costs, the cancellation of tax rebates on some commodities, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi have also increased the pressure on Chinese exporters. We will reduce the export growth rate to 15% this year, and the import growth rate will be 20%. The contribution of net exports to GDP will remain negative throughout the year. And because the export situation is worse than imports, the trade surplus may drop to 140 billion. It is expected that the RMB will appreciate against the US dollar to 6.2 before the end of the year. Second, the economic slowdown cannot be avoided. The "hard landing" concern is actually excessive. Since the first half of this year, the Chinese government has continued to implement the monetary policy of "named steady, but tight" since the end of last year. The central bank has raised interest rates twice. And raised the deposit reserve ratio six times. Under the tightening of monetary policy, China's economy showed signs of slowing in the first half of the year. The PMI data of the leading economic index fell for three consecutive months. Consumption data continued to slow down. In some areas, production was affected due to difficulties in electricity consumption. The more signs of economic slowdown have become apparent, the voice of policy “overshoot†is endless, and the market is more worried about the “hard landing†of the Chinese economy. However, the author believes that the current Chinese economy does show signs of slowing down, but the "hard landing" worry is excessive. In this sense, a moderate slowdown is an unavoidable process because the slowdown in economic growth is the inevitable result of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control to curb inflation trends and adjust economic structure and transform growth patterns. Although the current monetary policy is tight, the fiscal policy remains positive except for the cancellation of car purchases. The “wide fiscal†can support economic growth without a sharp decline. Specifically, China's current high-end consumption is still strong, and the investment in affordable housing and the construction of a large amount of infrastructure in the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan will also drive a significant drop in investment. In addition, the phenomenon of power shortages that are more concerned in the market is mainly due to the fact that the annual maintenance time of the power plants in April-May and September-October is the same as that of some factories in the past year. A large number of resumption of work this year has caused an increase in demand for electricity. Therefore, it is expected that power generation will increase in June and industrial production will recover. The author believes that the current Chinese economy has not shown obvious signs of cooling, and there is no need to worry too much about the economic downturn and the risk of “hard landingâ€. It is expected that GDP will fall 9% in the second quarter, continue to fall in the third quarter, and rebound in the fourth quarter. Or it will reach 9%. Third, the peak inflation may be delayed, the pressure will not decrease in the second half. Earlier, there was a view in the market that the current round of inflation will peak in the first half of the year, and there is a view that the inflation level of 5.4% in March will be the peak of this round of inflation. However, the data shows that the current inflation has not gone down the trend, but has repeatedly hit new highs and is still in the upside range. In May, CPI rose by 5.5% year-on-year, hitting a new high. Based on the simple calculation of the increase in food prices and non-food prices in September, the CPI in June will also reach 6.1%. What's more, in today's food prices have not seen a decline, non-food price growth has even hit a record high, it is more difficult to control within this goal. In response to this round of inflation, the central bank has frequently made moves, why is inflation still continuing to rise? The author believes that the reasons for the current round of inflation are very complicated, both domestic and international factors, including institutional factors as well as trending factors. Therefore, this round of inflation has long-term characteristics and it is more difficult to resist inflation. Since the currency is not overdone, the liquidity easing caused by the long-term money supply puts pressure on inflation and will not ease soon. In addition, the overcapacity phenomenon has been changing with the sharp increase in demand and the elimination of backward production capacity. Especially after the emergence of "Lewis Turning Point", the rise of labor wages no longer supports the traditional state of oversupply. The rise in wages will have a long-term and lasting driving force for prices. At the same time, resource price reform is also imminent, especially the pressure on electricity prices after the emergence of “electricity shortageâ€, as long-term institutional factors will also affect inflation. Specifically, considering that the current pork price trend has not declined, food prices have entered a seasonally rising stage, non-food prices have shown a trend increase, etc., the peak inflation rate may be delayed to the third quarter, and the annual inflation is expected to reach 5.2%. , exceeding the government's 4% regulatory target. Fourth, the price inflection point is expected to appear in the third quarter The trend of housing prices is an important part of the people's livelihood, but considering that the current first-tier cities have not seen a significant decline in housing prices, it is expected that the government's real estate control policy will continue. The author believes that due to "the new round of real estate control policies are more stringent", "the real estate tax pilot is gradually deepening", "the monetary tightening policy is still going on", "the real estate business capital chain is tightening", "the supply of affordable housing is sufficient", and “The prices in first-tier cities have not dropped significantly.†Under these six major pressures, the price turning point in first-tier cities will appear in the third quarter. • With the addition of affordable housing construction, there will be no significant decline in investment. At the same time, the supply of 10 million sets of affordable housing will also drive the development of related industries. Therefore, it is not necessary to worry too much that the regulation and control policies will have a greater impact on upstream and downstream industries and the economy such as steel, building materials, engineering and construction machinery. However, due to the strong demand for real estate and real estate as an important pillar of the Chinese economy, it is expected that there will be limited room for house price declines. The author believes that the decline in house prices will be between 5% and 10%. The author believes that the sooner the price inflection point occurs, the sooner the sales will pick up, and the stricter regulation of the government, such as the purchase restriction policy, will be reduced sooner. Therefore, the turning point of housing prices appears as early as possible, not a bad thing, but is conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market and the Chinese economy. V. Maintaining the policy tone of “tight currency, wide fiscal†As the current “hard landing†risk in China is still small, inflation and housing price inflection point have not yet appeared, and the tight currency still needs to be adhered to. However, due to the frequent increase in the reserve ratio earlier, the excess reserve ratio of small and medium-sized banks has basically no surplus, and the off-balance sheet wealth product yield and SME loan interest rate are much higher than the benchmark interest rate, and the impact on the control of credit will be More than raising interest rates. And raising deposit rates in a timely manner will help alleviate long-term negative interest rates and is the most effective way to fight inflation. Therefore, the author believes that in the choice of monetary policy, priority should be given to price-based tools that have little impact on economic growth and have more obvious anti-inflation effects. It is expected that the central bank will raise interest rates at least twice before the end of this year, and the reserve ratio will increase. While continuing to adhere to the tight currency, the government will also supplement the policy mix of “wide fiscalâ€, such as reducing personal income tax and implementing the construction of affordable housing, to prevent “small stagflation†from continuing to the fourth quarter. At present, many small and medium-sized service enterprises have outsourcing business. While increasing the value-added tax of enterprises, enterprises will also bear the business tax burden brought by outsourcing. Business tax cannot be deducted, and heavy tax burden is not conducive to the development and export of service companies. Therefore, the difficulty of running small and medium-sized enterprises is not only due to the implementation of tightening monetary policy, but also the need for financial support. Considering that business tax is the main source of local fiscal revenue, the reform involves the relationship between local finance and central finance, and progress may be slow. If local finances want to get more income, they will inevitably introduce real estate taxes as the main tax for local finance.
A longpass (LP) Filter is an optical interference or coloured glass filter that attenuates shorter wavelengths and transmits (passes) longer wavelengths over the active range of the target spectrum (ultraviolet, visible, or infrared). Longpass filters, which can have a very sharp slope (referred to as edge filters), are described by the cut-on wavelength at 50 percent of peak transmission. In fluorescence microscopy, longpass filters are frequently utilized in dichroic mirrors and barrier (emission) filters. Use of the older term 'low pass' to describe longpass filters has become uncommon; filters are usually described in terms of wavelength rather than frequency, and a "low pass filter", without qualification, would be understood to be an electronic filter
Longpass Filters,Long Pass Filter,Longpass Filter,Long Pass Filters
Changchun Realpoo Photoelectric Co., Ltd. , https://www.optics-realpoo.com