From the time of the cold winter, the inventory of Beijing City has risen slowly, and the mentality of steel traders has been extremely stable.
Inventory is much lower than the same period last year
According to the statistics of Lange Steel's information monitoring, the total inventory of Beijing's construction steel market on December 23 was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,500 tons compared with December 16. Rebar stocks were 359,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons; wire stocks were 72,500 tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons; stocks of coiled snails were 53,800 tons, an increase of 0.68 million tons from last week.
Compared with the same period of last year, the inventory quantity of Beijing this year is indeed not high, which is the main factor for the steady and optimistic attitude of steel traders.
“After the Spring Festival last year, Beijing’s stocks reached a maximum of 800,000 tons. Compared with last year, even if Beijing’s stocks exceeded 500,000 tons this year, the inventory pressure of steel traders is not big!†Xue Mankun, the director of China Railway Materials Beijing Shahe Business Department, told Lan Ge Steel News Center reporter.
Xue Mankun said that the steel mill shipments did not decrease before the Spring Festival last year, and the inventory of 800,000 tons was passively increased. Steel traders are pessimistic! But this year, steel mills actively diverted to reduce the shipments in Beijing, and Shougang will no longer produce next month. Rebar, steel traders in the field distribution is also good. Compared with last year, the growth rate of Beijing's inventory has been very slow this year!
Do not rush to fill the gap before the holiday
Another important reason for the slow growth of inventory in Beijing is that steel mills and steel traders have no intention of making up for the Shougang thread gap.
Hebei Iron and Steel Group has recently increased the distribution of steel in the south, one of the purposes is to reduce the amount of shipments in Beijing, reduce the pressure on steel traders, and keep steel prices firm.
Shougang will have a 150,000-ton thread gap after its shutdown in January, while Beijing has accounted for the vast majority. The Shougang agreement family has no choice but to lose the agreement amount of Shougang, and it is not intended to make up for this gap before the Spring Festival. Beijing Zhihengda Trading Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhihengda) is a loyal customer of Shougang. The business manager of the company, Li Mingyi, told the Lange Steel News Center: "Shougang's agreement accounts for six points of all agreements of Zhihengda. One is around, but at present, there is no gap in the amount of Shougang's agreement, and the probability of making up after the Spring Festival is relatively large."
Li Mingyi said that at the end of the year, the agreement will pay the steel factory, and the capital pressure will be great. Moreover, during the Chinese New Year, the goods issued by the steel mills are basically inventories, so the probability of increasing the agreement of the steel mills before the Spring Festival is very small.
“And the steel mill’s contract redemption rate is relatively low this year. If the steel mill increases the agreement, the steel mill’s contract fulfillment rate is lower, which may result in the loss of a group of old customers. Therefore, the probability of the steel mill increasing the number of agreements this year is relatively small.†Xue Mankun.
It is imperative to maintain reasonable stocks
"At the end of the year, the steel traders who completed the steel mill's annual sales task, the current task is no longer to pursue high sales, but to adjust the inventory structure and maintain a full range of products." Xue Mankun said, "The current steel traders maintain appropriate and reasonable Inventory is also one of the reasons why inventory growth is not fast."
According to Jing Baoxiang, general manager of Beijing Yuxing Tongda Trading Co., Ltd., the individual stocks of steel trade enterprises have remained at low levels this year.
The slow growth of stocks in Beijing is not only due to the active reduction of steel mills and steel traders, but also by objective factors – the tightening of money. The deposit reserve ratio was raised five times during the year, followed by the discount rate of bills. According to the data of China's bill network, as of the 23rd, the discount rate of national stocks has reached 5%, and the impact on the loan cost of steel traders cannot be ignored.
"Difficult! Difficult! It's hard!" When the reporter told Jing Baoxiang that the discount rate of bills reached a new high, he could not help but sigh.
Jing Baoxiang told reporters that the discount rate of bills has increased to 5%, which has a greater impact on steel traders. “Because the bill discount rate has increased, our loan volume has decreased by 30%. Compared with the same period last year, steel stocks have also decreased by 30-40%.â€
Yao Ziping, general manager of Minmetals Development Co., Ltd., said at Lange's 2010 conference that after investigating the phenomenon of high inventory, he found that the original trading companies were increasingly cautious in their operations and were reluctant to hold more inventory. Despite the substantial increase in the number of social inventories, the number of inventories held by trading companies has been declining, and the increase in inventories has come from the increase in inventories of new trading companies. The huge amount of new RMB loans in 2009-2010 has prompted many small and medium-sized trading companies to hold small amounts of inventories, which is the main force for the increase in social inventories in 2010.
Inventory is much lower than the same period last year
According to the statistics of Lange Steel's information monitoring, the total inventory of Beijing's construction steel market on December 23 was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,500 tons compared with December 16. Rebar stocks were 359,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons; wire stocks were 72,500 tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons; stocks of coiled snails were 53,800 tons, an increase of 0.68 million tons from last week.
Compared with the same period of last year, the inventory quantity of Beijing this year is indeed not high, which is the main factor for the steady and optimistic attitude of steel traders.
“After the Spring Festival last year, Beijing’s stocks reached a maximum of 800,000 tons. Compared with last year, even if Beijing’s stocks exceeded 500,000 tons this year, the inventory pressure of steel traders is not big!†Xue Mankun, the director of China Railway Materials Beijing Shahe Business Department, told Lan Ge Steel News Center reporter.
Xue Mankun said that the steel mill shipments did not decrease before the Spring Festival last year, and the inventory of 800,000 tons was passively increased. Steel traders are pessimistic! But this year, steel mills actively diverted to reduce the shipments in Beijing, and Shougang will no longer produce next month. Rebar, steel traders in the field distribution is also good. Compared with last year, the growth rate of Beijing's inventory has been very slow this year!
Do not rush to fill the gap before the holiday
Another important reason for the slow growth of inventory in Beijing is that steel mills and steel traders have no intention of making up for the Shougang thread gap.
Hebei Iron and Steel Group has recently increased the distribution of steel in the south, one of the purposes is to reduce the amount of shipments in Beijing, reduce the pressure on steel traders, and keep steel prices firm.
Shougang will have a 150,000-ton thread gap after its shutdown in January, while Beijing has accounted for the vast majority. The Shougang agreement family has no choice but to lose the agreement amount of Shougang, and it is not intended to make up for this gap before the Spring Festival. Beijing Zhihengda Trading Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhihengda) is a loyal customer of Shougang. The business manager of the company, Li Mingyi, told the Lange Steel News Center: "Shougang's agreement accounts for six points of all agreements of Zhihengda. One is around, but at present, there is no gap in the amount of Shougang's agreement, and the probability of making up after the Spring Festival is relatively large."
Li Mingyi said that at the end of the year, the agreement will pay the steel factory, and the capital pressure will be great. Moreover, during the Chinese New Year, the goods issued by the steel mills are basically inventories, so the probability of increasing the agreement of the steel mills before the Spring Festival is very small.
“And the steel mill’s contract redemption rate is relatively low this year. If the steel mill increases the agreement, the steel mill’s contract fulfillment rate is lower, which may result in the loss of a group of old customers. Therefore, the probability of the steel mill increasing the number of agreements this year is relatively small.†Xue Mankun.
It is imperative to maintain reasonable stocks
"At the end of the year, the steel traders who completed the steel mill's annual sales task, the current task is no longer to pursue high sales, but to adjust the inventory structure and maintain a full range of products." Xue Mankun said, "The current steel traders maintain appropriate and reasonable Inventory is also one of the reasons why inventory growth is not fast."
According to Jing Baoxiang, general manager of Beijing Yuxing Tongda Trading Co., Ltd., the individual stocks of steel trade enterprises have remained at low levels this year.
The slow growth of stocks in Beijing is not only due to the active reduction of steel mills and steel traders, but also by objective factors – the tightening of money. The deposit reserve ratio was raised five times during the year, followed by the discount rate of bills. According to the data of China's bill network, as of the 23rd, the discount rate of national stocks has reached 5%, and the impact on the loan cost of steel traders cannot be ignored.
"Difficult! Difficult! It's hard!" When the reporter told Jing Baoxiang that the discount rate of bills reached a new high, he could not help but sigh.
Jing Baoxiang told reporters that the discount rate of bills has increased to 5%, which has a greater impact on steel traders. “Because the bill discount rate has increased, our loan volume has decreased by 30%. Compared with the same period last year, steel stocks have also decreased by 30-40%.â€
Yao Ziping, general manager of Minmetals Development Co., Ltd., said at Lange's 2010 conference that after investigating the phenomenon of high inventory, he found that the original trading companies were increasingly cautious in their operations and were reluctant to hold more inventory. Despite the substantial increase in the number of social inventories, the number of inventories held by trading companies has been declining, and the increase in inventories has come from the increase in inventories of new trading companies. The huge amount of new RMB loans in 2009-2010 has prompted many small and medium-sized trading companies to hold small amounts of inventories, which is the main force for the increase in social inventories in 2010.
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