Recovery of domestic methanol supply prior to demand growth

Although the new methanol production capacity in 2015 was far less than that in 2014, only 6.57 million tons were put into operation, and the capacity growth rate was 10%, of which mainly coal methanol (4.72 million tons) and coke oven gas methanol (1.85 million tons). In the northwest (3.25 million tons), North China (2.2 million tons, including Shandong) and the Northeast (Bao Tailong 600,000 tons), and the specific production schedule is not clear, but taking into account the weather, new production capacity will generally choose The third quarter will be put into operation one after another, so the release of new production capacity will continue to have a certain impact on the near-far contract.

The methanol plant operating rate in the second quarter may have a greater recovery

Although in the second quarter, 600,000 tons of new Austrian energy and 600,000 tons of coal from Yulin Natural Gas are planned to be overhauled in April, the amount of equipment restarted in the second quarter reached 3.87 million tons, mainly in April, so the second quarter methanol The operating rate of the device is expected to return to a level above 65%, and the market supply will increase significantly.

Imports will also gradually pick up

In the first quarter, the centralized overhaul of methanol plants at home and abroad led to a continuous rise in methanol prices, and the external market gained better momentum. Import profits fell back to low levels since March, and 1.7 million tons of Malaysian oil 2# equipment and 85 tons of Brunei methanol company In mid-to-late March, there was an overhaul plan, and most of them were restarted in the second quarter. Although the import volume in April was affected, the supply in the second quarter still gradually recovered, and the external large-scale methanol plant was gradually restarted, of which Oman was 1.05 million tons. , OCI 750,000 tons and Iran ZPC 1.65 million tons of equipment planned to restart in mid-to late March, the overall supply growth trend unchanged.

Traditional demand will slowly recover in the second quarter

At present, the operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether plant are respectively at a relatively low level of 43.8% and 33.5%. The trend of gradually recovering demand in the second quarter is unchanged, and the operating rate of the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is restored to the normal level of 60% and 50%, respectively. At present, the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether production capacities are 18.86 million tons and 11.48 million tons, respectively, and the methanol consumption per unit is 0.45 and 1.42 respectively. The traditional methanol demand in the future is expected to increase by 4 million tons. In terms of acetic acid, the current operating rate is at a high level of 73%, and the demand is unlikely to increase.

Second quarter olefin demand has also increased

Of the methanol-to-olefin plants currently in operation, the 600,000-ton MTO plant (compared with 1.8 million tons of methanol) and Datang Duolun's 460,000-ton MTP plant (supporting 1.7 million tons) will be restarted in April. Engineering Yangtong Hengtong 300,000 tons MTP plant (700,000 tons of external mining), Changzhou Fude 330,000 tons MTO plant (supporting 1 million tons), Baozao Group 100,000 tons methanol-based aromatics plant and Zhejiang Xingxing Energy 700,000 tons The MTO plant (1.8 million tons of external mining) has a production plan in the second quarter. It is expected that the new demand for olefins will be 3 million tons in the second quarter, but the actual value is relatively small. Considering that the profit of methanol-to-olefins production is not good at present, if the olefin plant continues to be put into production, it will bring pressure on olefin prices. When the profit is not good, the outsourcing will reduce or reduce the price of methanol. As a result, the price of methanol will be significantly suppressed. There is still some uncertainty in this piece.

Methanol energy demand in the second quarter may be inhibited

The demand for methanol in energy is mainly reflected in methanol gasoline. Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a document in January 2012 to approve Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shanghai to carry out the methanol vehicle pilot project, Guizhou and Gansu provinces were also involved, and the demand for methanol gasoline was also increasing. Growth, but methanol gasoline has always stayed in the pilot, there is no qualitative leap, it is expected that the second quarter of methanol gasoline this is difficult to significantly increase. In the absence of significant changes in the international supply and demand pattern of oil prices, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will continue to maintain a low probability of greater, the substitution of methanol for gasoline and diesel will be reduced, to a certain extent will inhibit the price of methanol.

In the second quarter, methanol is weak and strong, and long-term growth continues.

In summary, in addition to the gradual restart of domestic and foreign devices in the second quarter, some production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and the country's methanol plant operating rate will have a certain increase. The probability of returning to the level above 65% is greater, that is, the domestic supply will increase by 7 million. About tons, coupled with the restart of peripheral devices, the improvement in domestic demand will prompt the recovery of imports, the current level of imports is at a lower level, and there is still room for growth. As a whole, the increase in supply growth in the second quarter is more than that in the second quarter. After the first weak strong probability.

In terms of demand, both traditional and emerging demand will have a certain growth, which is expected to reach 4 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. However, these estimates are relatively optimistic, and the downstream demand depends on profits. If the profits are not good, these growth must be Discount, so the overall perspective, the second quarter demand growth may not be enough to restore the supply; In addition, taking into account the main methanol in the second quarter will be moved to the 1509 contract, and the contract is currently only a small discount spot price, the history of methanol in the main difference in the main [-200,200] between the shock, so the remaining space below the methanol price, we expect the second quarter of the methanol prices appear to stage the probability of falling, the lower target range in the 2200-2050 yuan / ton.