Due to insufficient power supply in some areas of Zhejiang, measures have been taken to reduce the power generation of production enterprises, and the demand for diesel power generation has initially appeared. Yesterday (May 2), the latest monitoring data obtained by Xiwang Energy from "Daily Economic News" showed that in March, the national diesel consumption was rapidly increased by about 40% compared with the previous month. Previously, the statistics released by the National Development and Reform Commission also showed that in the first quarter of this year, China's diesel consumption increased by 10.6%.
Industry analysts expect that due to the increase in demand, around the end of June, diesel supply and demand relationship will likely form a situation similar to the serious shortage of resources during the October 2010 period, and the possibility of “diesel shortage†will increase.
Demand for power generation oil is emerging
According to media reports, at present, Hangzhou Lin'an, Wenzhou, Jinhua and Jiaxing areas have taken power-limiting measures due to lack of electricity. In Wenzhou, power supply to factories and other production-oriented enterprises is limited to five days, and power is limited to two days; Jinhua adopts “open six stopsâ€; Jiaxing adopts “open seven stops seven†or “open ten stops tenâ€. Production companies such as cement plants, chemical plants, and steel plants are affected.
In order to ensure production, some enterprises use diesel generators to generate electricity, and the demand for power generation oil is initially apparent. According to some local oil companies in Zhejiang, some factories purchase diesel fuel for power generation. According to local media reports, this year, the highest load in Zhejiang Province will exceed 50 million kilowatts, and the ultimate power supply capacity is only 46 million kilowatts, even if some units are considered to resume full-load operation and other factors, the province's power gap in the peak summer time is also Will exceed 3.5 million kilowatts.
In addition, Jiangsu Power Company recently held a discussion with Jiangsu's top ten steel companies to discuss the issue of power conservation and supply. It is reported that Jiangsu's biggest adjustment gap this summer is more than 11 million kilowatts, accounting for about 16%. When necessary, the key targets such as building materials, steel, cement, and hotels will be limited to ensure the safety and stability of the power grid, and the residents will be fully protected. The large-scale power-limiting scheme involving 68,000 enterprises in the province is being submitted to the government for approval. According to the plan, if there are still enterprises using electricity, they can charge electricity at a price five times or even 10 times higher than the normal electricity price.
Zhong Jian, chief analyst of Xiwang Energy, believes that with the arrival of summer, the power shortage will be more severe, when the area of ​​power cuts will increase, the number of enterprises affected by power cuts will increase, and the demand for diesel power generation will further increase. .
March diesel supply and demand is slightly tight
“In March, the growth of diesel consumption in the country far exceeded the growth of diesel production, which caused the diesel supply and demand relationship to change from a slightly looser state in February to a slightly tighter state in the month.†Zhong Jian analyzed.
The preliminary assessment of the “ China Petroleum ( 11.71 , 0.00 , 0.00% ) Market Supply and Demand Relationship Assessment System†prepared by Xiwang Energy shows that in March 2011, the national diesel supply and demand relationship evaluation index was 150:100, and the supply side index was higher than the previous month. 200:100 plunged 50 indexes. The index shows that the supply and demand relationship in the national diesel market has changed from a slightly looser state in the previous period to a slightly tighter state.
Zhong Jian said that in the next few months, if diesel production and imports no longer increase, according to the trend of demand growth of diesel consumption after entering the peak season, it is expected that diesel supply and demand in the next 2 to 3 months, that is, around the end of June. The relationship may once again form a serious shortage of resources in the state of diesel supply and demand ratio of 130:100 during the period of October 2010.
At present, the refinery units under Sinopec are basically at full capacity and the export is suspended. Treasure Island analyst Zhao Xu said that the rigid demand in the late stage of the market was strong; the profits of domestic refineries were continuously compressed, and the enthusiasm for refining production was frustrated; the advance of the power gap or the rapid increase in diesel demand in the short term. Looking at the current situation, the contradiction between supply and demand of diesel oil will rise in the later period.
In this regard, Zhong Jian believes that if the state can introduce the corresponding policy to call the refining capacity to compensate for the shortage of central enterprises' oil processing; and timely organize the import of certain scale diesel to increase domestic diesel inventories; and increase through a series of effective measures. The total supply of diesel resources in the country can greatly alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand.
According to customs statistics, domestic diesel exports in the first quarter of this year were 689,900 tons, down 34% year-on-year; imported diesel was 352,300 tons, down 40% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the state further controlled the export volume of refined oil products, and the export quotas were greatly reduced. It is expected that diesel exports will continue to show a significant decline in the second quarter.
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