Annual guide price of coal: The highest price of key contracts rose by 5%

It is reported that on November 22, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a special symposium on coal price policy. At this symposium, China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, China Coal and Shenhua, and other important coal companies and associations attended.

On November 24, an insider who attended the symposium revealed that at the meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission requested coal companies to assume social responsibilities and ensure the stability of coal prices in 2012, and proposed two guiding opinions: 2012 annual key contract coal The maximum price may be increased by 5%; the spot price of 5500 kcal heat from the northern ports including Qinhuangdao Port must not exceed 800 yuan/ton.

According to past conventions, the 2012 coal negotiations will begin in early December. On the eve of the two-party talks, the National Development and Reform Commission made a move to lay the tone for a month-long coal-fired tug-of-war.

“As a state-owned company, we must take up such social responsibility.” Zhang Xianfa, vice minister of sales and marketing of Yancoal Group, told reporters that the highest price of 5% of the contract coal price is not enough to offset the limit price loss of spot price, “but What's more important is to ensure people's livelihood."

At present, the power companies have set a new record high, and 13 power companies in south central Shanxi Province have recently signed a letter to the National Development and Reform Commission requesting an increase in electricity prices to rescue them; in contrast, coal companies including Shenhua and Tongmei are accelerating the acquisition of quality assets of power companies. speed.

Limit Order Effect

800 yuan/ton of 5500 kcal coal limit order is very difficult to implement

At the end of 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Prohibition Order”, which required that the price of key coal in 2011 be equivalent to that in 2010, and a total of more than 700 million tons of key contract coal was affected. The highest 5% of the increase in the allowance, the coal industry understands that last year's major contract coal prices did not rise compensation.

However, a coal enterprise official stated that coal companies must hope that contract coal prices will rise and that the target increase should be around 10%; power generation companies certainly do not want the contract prices to rise, at least do not want to rise too much, and 5% are a compromise between the two parties. price.

In fact, outside the price, the focus of the agreement to honor the rate has been the focus of coal and electricity disputes.

A responsible person of China Resources Power told reporters that the source of power companies to ensure no loss is the contract coal, but even if it is more than 700 million tons of key contract coal, "in fact, to fulfill 50% is already good."

"We are 100% cashed in." Zhang Xianfa stressed. A coal-minded company also refuted that coal companies’ key contracted coals were basically fulfilled. “Only the difference between contract coal and market coal prices is greater than that of power generation, and power companies put the contract coal on the market and sell it.”

The CEC revealed that the rate of redemption of key contract coals has shown a downward trend, and the rate of contracted coal power generation for power generation groups is around 50%; as a response to the 2010 annual report on the operation of coal economy, the China Coal Industry Association called the focus on coal power. The contract redemption rate is as high as 90%.

Outside the key contracts, coal industry insiders pointed out that “considering that the 5500 kcal is the main force in the current coal market, the price limit of RMB 800/t will have a greater impact on the spot market next year.”

In the fourth week of November, the thermal transaction volume of 5,500 kcal/kg of market thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Guotou Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port, Tianjin Port, and Huanghua Port were respectively 845-855 yuan. / Ton, 850-860 yuan / ton, 840-850 yuan / ton, 850-860 yuan / ton, 855-865 yuan / ton and 840-850 yuan / ton.

The limit of 800 yuan/ton means that the spot price of coal will be lower than the current price.

According to preliminary calculations, in the first 10 months, the country’s coal output was over 2.9 billion tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year; consumption was up 10.2% year-on-year. Among them, the coal-fired power generation exceeded 1.6 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. Since it was deduced throughout the year, the National Development and Reform Commission’s guidance will affect about 1.9 billion tons of coal prices in 2012.

Huang Teng, a coal expert, told reporters that the limit price of 800 yuan/ton of 5,500 kcal coal is extremely difficult to implement. “Constrained by the poor internal and external economic factors, it is difficult for coal prices to enter the rising channel, but considering the next year, 8 With the growth rate of %, coal prices should still rise slightly."

Zhang Xian's law holds different opinions. Its view is that the impact of the European debt crisis can be eliminated in one or two quarters, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in the coastal region have closed down. “At least in the first quarter of next year, coal will oversupply, and coal prices will fall in the first quarter. Falling."

In fact, since 2003, the price of coal in China has continued to rise. Taking the most representative coal price of 5,500 kcal in Shanxi Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao as an example, it rose from 275 yuan/ton at the end of 2003 to 850 yuan at the end of October 2011. / Ton or more, the cumulative increase of more than 200%, while the sales price rose less than 40%.

Coal power game

Shenhua will vigorously acquire thermal power assets along the coast along the coast

Since 2008, the five largest power companies have suffered losses from thermal power generation. In the three years from 2008 to 2010, the cumulative losses of the five major power generation groups totaled 60.257 billion yuan, including a loss of 13.719 billion yuan in 2010, 236 losses in 436 thermal power companies, and a loss of up to 54%. .

However, under the premise of a huge loss of the five major power generation groups in the country, market rumors of on-grid tariffs were raised by 5 points per kilowatt-hour on December 2. However, the current economic situation in China has swayed the attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Huang Teng frankly stated that due to the sharp fall in the CPI growth rate to 5.5% in October, it is expected that it will fall further in November, and the window for the increase in resources and energy prices has already opened. “We should adjust the price of electricity on one side and maintain the coal-fired linkage system to free the power companies. Loss; At the same time, it should pull the gap between the small-scale contract coal and the market coal price difference, and finally go to the market."

According to calculations, for each 1% increase in the price of electricity, the earnings of Chinese-funded enterprises in 2012 may increase by 18%. At present, analysts, including Citigroup, have raised their profit expectations for domestic thermal power companies.

At the moment when the 2012 coal negotiations are about to start, coal-fired power companies have already attacked and defended each other.

On the one hand, the power companies have rushed to control the price of coal on the ground of loss, and meanwhile extended to the coal sector. Coal companies hope that the key contract coal will be reduced or even cancelled, eventually all market-oriented, market pricing, and the acquisition of power companies as Downstream investment integration.

In addition to demanding higher electricity prices, the Big Five has accelerated the pace of building and acquiring coal mines. As the company with the highest self-sufficiency rate, the current self-sufficiency rate of CPI has reached 30%, but the 2015 target is 50%.

Following the transfer of Zhangze Power to the New Dongjiatong Coal Group by CLP Power, more and more thermal power asset transfer announcements have appeared in the Beijing Equity Exchange and other places. Coal companies are becoming important takers - Huaneng and Datang. Guodian, Huadian, and CPI have recently sold their thermal power assets intensively.

On November 21, at the shareholders' online exchange meeting, Huang Qing, secretary of the board of directors of China Shenhua, led various departments to respond to shareholders' questions. Shenhua said that the current valuation of the power industry is low, the cost of mergers and acquisitions is low and the success rate is high. The Group will vigorously acquire thermal power assets along the coast along the coast.

Relying on the low-cost self-supply of internal coal, coal enterprises have made substantial profits in thermal power business. Taking China Shenhua as an example, as the largest coal enterprise in China, as of the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of China Shenhua Power reached 39.13 million kilowatts, making it the largest installed coal enterprise in China. And since about 95% of Shenhua’s coal for power generation is internally supplied by the Group, its power generation business in 2010 earned a profit of RMB 11.58 billion and gross profit margin was as high as 25.47%.