The steel market, which has been sluggish for nearly two quarters, has finally begun to show more obvious signs of recovery, and rebounding momentum is accumulating. The recovery of demand during the peak season and the gradual loosening of funds have become the main logic of optimism in the current market.
According to the monitoring data, the average price of 25mm secondary rebar for major products in major domestic markets was 4285 yuan/ton last week, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 6.5mm high-line was 4335 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous period. The increase in steel prices in the northern regions was particularly significant, with a single-week increase of RMB 100/ton. The price of iron ore as a raw material also stabilized and stabilized, as the progress of stocking production of steel plants began to accelerate.
When the market began to warm up a week ago, most market players were still very cautious, but the continuation of the rise allowed more and more optimism to emerge. Some industry perspectives believe that the current peak season for the steel industry is approaching, and that the cost of capital has dropped significantly in the near future. This will allow steel prices to gain momentum for a sustained period of time.
According to statistics, last week's terminal purchases in Shanghai increased by 29.28% month-on-month, and this has been the recovery of purchases for three consecutive weeks, indicating that downstream demand is gradually recovering. At the same time, with the stabilization of prices at a low level, the market's demand for activity has also increased. Some of the early oversold varieties such as the high-line, disk screw, and even large single-bargain-hunting, which stimulated the rapid rebound in steel prices.
At the same time, the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in China decreased by 0.37% last week, which was the first time since the 8th consecutive increase. Which Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing and other major markets have appeared to lighten up the inventory, and Hangzhou warehouse building materials to lighten up the most obvious.
The booming data of the downstream industry also confirms the recovery of demand from the side. According to statistics, in February, the downstream industries, including transportation infrastructure, construction, hardware, household appliances, shipbuilding, machinery, and automobiles, which were most closely linked with steel, saw a rebound in overall prosperity. Among them, the PMI of transportation, construction and hardware increased by more than 20% sequentially. In theory, the activity of the downstream industry will directly affect the activity of its upstream purchases, and further increase the expected increase in steel prices. This is not difficult to explain the current phenomenon that the steel market's terminal purchases have rebounded significantly.
In addition to the recovery in terminal demand, the reserve requirement ratio for this month was reduced by 0.5%, and liquidity was released at a rate of about 400 billion yuan at one time. “The period with the highest cost of capital has begun to become history. The toll of hogging costs for the next 50-60 yuan will also drop, and the circulation space for circulation companies will expand.†Analysts believe that this will promote transactions in the intermediate circulation sector. As a result, traders will also be motivated by new inventory.
Although some analysts have also warned that whether the loosening of funds can continue to be observed, and steel prices will also face the pressure of accelerating profitable resources, but in a comprehensive view, determine the short-term changes in inventory, downstream demand and capital All have a positive signal. Optimistic sentiments suggest that the fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to rebound in stages after experiencing a sustained downturn in the past six months.
According to the monitoring data, the average price of 25mm secondary rebar for major products in major domestic markets was 4285 yuan/ton last week, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 6.5mm high-line was 4335 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous period. The increase in steel prices in the northern regions was particularly significant, with a single-week increase of RMB 100/ton. The price of iron ore as a raw material also stabilized and stabilized, as the progress of stocking production of steel plants began to accelerate.
When the market began to warm up a week ago, most market players were still very cautious, but the continuation of the rise allowed more and more optimism to emerge. Some industry perspectives believe that the current peak season for the steel industry is approaching, and that the cost of capital has dropped significantly in the near future. This will allow steel prices to gain momentum for a sustained period of time.
According to statistics, last week's terminal purchases in Shanghai increased by 29.28% month-on-month, and this has been the recovery of purchases for three consecutive weeks, indicating that downstream demand is gradually recovering. At the same time, with the stabilization of prices at a low level, the market's demand for activity has also increased. Some of the early oversold varieties such as the high-line, disk screw, and even large single-bargain-hunting, which stimulated the rapid rebound in steel prices.
At the same time, the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in China decreased by 0.37% last week, which was the first time since the 8th consecutive increase. Which Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing and other major markets have appeared to lighten up the inventory, and Hangzhou warehouse building materials to lighten up the most obvious.
The booming data of the downstream industry also confirms the recovery of demand from the side. According to statistics, in February, the downstream industries, including transportation infrastructure, construction, hardware, household appliances, shipbuilding, machinery, and automobiles, which were most closely linked with steel, saw a rebound in overall prosperity. Among them, the PMI of transportation, construction and hardware increased by more than 20% sequentially. In theory, the activity of the downstream industry will directly affect the activity of its upstream purchases, and further increase the expected increase in steel prices. This is not difficult to explain the current phenomenon that the steel market's terminal purchases have rebounded significantly.
In addition to the recovery in terminal demand, the reserve requirement ratio for this month was reduced by 0.5%, and liquidity was released at a rate of about 400 billion yuan at one time. “The period with the highest cost of capital has begun to become history. The toll of hogging costs for the next 50-60 yuan will also drop, and the circulation space for circulation companies will expand.†Analysts believe that this will promote transactions in the intermediate circulation sector. As a result, traders will also be motivated by new inventory.
Although some analysts have also warned that whether the loosening of funds can continue to be observed, and steel prices will also face the pressure of accelerating profitable resources, but in a comprehensive view, determine the short-term changes in inventory, downstream demand and capital All have a positive signal. Optimistic sentiments suggest that the fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to rebound in stages after experiencing a sustained downturn in the past six months.
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