India's entry into the South China Sea: for energy? For strategy?

The most critical factor in the existence of problems in the cooperation between India and Vietnam is that although development is a matter for the two companies, the state-owned nature of the two companies means that they represent the national interests of India and Vietnam. To put it another way, the signing of a cooperation agreement with Vietnam means that India has already recognized that the sovereignty of the region is in Vietnam, not China. ”

On October 15, according to the Xinhua News Agency, China and Vietnam issued a joint statement. "The two sides will step up negotiations on maritime issues based on the consensus of the two parties and leaders and the "Agreement on Guiding the Solution to the Basic Principles of the China-Vietnam Maritime Problem." Seek basic and long-term solutions acceptable to both parties and actively explore transitional and temporary solutions that do not affect their respective positions and positions, including actively researching and negotiating joint development issues.”

The statement stated that before the final settlement of the maritime dispute, the two sides will jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea, maintain calmness and restraint, and refrain from actions that complicate and expand the dispute. We should not allow any hostile forces to undermine the relations between the two parties and the two countries and deal with emerging issues in a constructive manner so as not to affect the relations between the two parties, the two countries, and the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

However, the joint statement between China and Vietnam did not ease the deep concern of the outside world over the South China Sea issue, because India, which is located in South Asia, has decided to enter the development resources of the South China Sea despite the firm opposition of the Chinese side. On October 12th, Vietnam’s national government Zhang Jinchuang During his visit to India, he signed a cooperation agreement with Indian Prime Minister Singh to jointly develop offshore oil and gas resources in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin responded on October 14th, saying that “China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and its adjacent waters. This position and related claims are consistent and clear. We have taken note of the above report. We hope relevant parties can do more things that are conducive to peace and stability in the South China Sea."

Yesterday, some experts said in an interview with the "International Finance" that India and Vietnam insisted on developing the South China Sea resources of the disputed area, although they could get a temporary "eye" benefit, but in the long run, what was lost was China and related. The country is in full swing in bilateral trade. "For countries such as India and Vietnam, losing profits because of small profits is actually not worthwhile."

Persisting in the development of South China Sea Before the Sino-Vietnamese joint declaration on October 15, the two sides signed the "Agreement on Guiding the Basic Principles of the People's Republic of China and the Socialist Republic of China on Maritime Issues" on October 11 in Beijing. This degree was seen by the media as "the positive progress made by the two countries in advancing the negotiation process on maritime issues." However, with no joy, Zhang Jinchuang and Singh signed an agreement to jointly develop oil and gas resources in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. It is understood that the specific executors of the agreement are the National Petroleum Corporation of India (state-owned) and the Vietnam National Petroleum Corporation.

“Since the perspective of energy companies alone, India, which is located in South Asia, does indeed lack petroleum, natural gas and other petrochemical resources. They urgently need to develop new resources to meet the growing domestic energy demand.” Yesterday, Director of the China Energy Economic Research Center, Xiamen University Lin Boqiang told the "International Financial News" reporter, "The oil and gas resources in the South China Sea are indeed rich, which is the most obvious reason why India has entered the South China Sea to develop oil and gas resources."

"But the key factor in the problem of India-Vietnam cooperation is that while development is a matter for both companies, the state-owned nature of the two companies means that they represent the national interests of India and Vietnam. To put it another way, the signing of a cooperation agreement with Vietnam means that India has already recognized that the region’s sovereignty is in Vietnam, not China.” Lin Boqiang said, but Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei has repeatedly stated earlier that “any foreign company is not With China's permission, engaging in oil and gas exploration activities in China's jurisdiction over sea areas is illegal and ineffective.” Lin Boqiang pointed out that even if the parties signed an agreement, within three to five years, it may be difficult for large-scale operations, and at the same time, from the international From the experience of crude oil exploitation at sea, general energy companies are reluctant to exploit resources in disputed areas because they will face no small risks.

Indian resources "ambition"

Since it is difficult to carry out large-scale exploitation in the short term and the exploitation itself also has certain risks, why does India insist on entering the controversial area of ​​the South China Sea?

In this regard, CCTV has recently analyzed in the news section that India’s move is based on China’s neighboring country, Vietnam, as a bargaining chip and stepping up its “stove to the east” strategy. In particular, the focus of India’s “eastern strategy” has shifted from “sharing China’s economic prosperity” to “preventing the expansion of Chinese forces” in recent years. At the same time, using the friction between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea issue can not only enhance the strategic cooperation with Vietnam, but also allocate resources to the South China Sea, and it can also curb China’s influence in the Asian region and even intends to fundamentally curb China’s development of.

India's "ambition" does not stop there. After Zhang Jinchuang, India also welcomed the visit of Burmese President Wu Dengsheng on the red carpet in recent days. According to Indian media reports, Singer gave Wu Dengsheng a $500 million "red envelope" - a tool for Myanmar's infrastructure construction. India's "Peach" also exchanged Myanmar's "reporter Li." At the joint press conference of Singer and Wu Dengsheng, Wu Dengsheng welcomed Indian companies to invest in Myanmar for energy investment.

In fact, China’s steel industry has also been more or less pressured by India. At present, India has not only increased the iron ore tariff from 5% at the beginning of 2009 to 20%, but the quality of iron ore delivered to China has also been described by market participants as "more impurities and even worse."

"These actions fully illustrate India's 'ambition'," Lin Boqiang told reporters. "While broadly deploying energy investments, they will use the opportunity of energy cooperation with China's neighbors to stop China and bargain with China. But ultimately, India will lose more of China’s interests.”

It is worth noting that the "Wall Street Journal" also wrote an article a few days ago that "India and Vietnam cannot risk losing China because of the increasingly frequent economic ties between the three countries." According to the "Hindu" newspaper on January 27 this year According to news, bilateral trade between China and India in 2010 exceeded expectations of the two countries, reaching 61.7 billion U.S. dollars.